几个关键驱动力将影响比特币的价格轨迹

持续流入的比特币ETF将继续提供基本需求

Several key drivers will influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory through the remainder of 2025 and into the next cycle.

几个关键驱动因素将在2025年其余时间内影响比特币的价格轨迹，直到下一个周期。

Sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs will continue to provide foundational demand, especially as retirement funds, endowments, and pension managers seek exposure to digital assets through regulated products. Any positive regulatory announcements, especially in jurisdictions like the United States and the European Union, could further catalyze Bitcoin’s upward movement.

持续流入现货比特币ETF将继续提供基本需求，尤其是在退休资金，捐赠基金和养老金经理寻求通过受监管的产品接触数字资产时。任何积极的监管公告，尤其是在美国和欧盟等司法管辖区，都可以进一步催化比特币的向上运动。

Conversely, any pessimistic pronouncements or, worse, swift and restrictive policy changes could stall the rally and introduce volatility.

相反，任何悲观的声明，或者更糟糕的是，迅速而限制性的政策变化都可能陷入集会并引入波动。

On the technical front, increased adoption of Bitcoin’s Layer 2 solutions, such as the Lightning Network, and its growing role in cross-border transactions, could improve its utility and perception as a digital store of value, ultimately impacting price trends.

在技​​术方面，比特币第2层解决方案（例如闪电网络及其在跨境交易中的作用越来越多）增加的采用可能会改善其效用和看法作为价值的数字存储，最终影响价格趋势。

Finally, macroeconomic conditions will play a crucial role. Should inflation concerns resurface or fiat currencies face devaluation, Bitcoin could serve as a hedge and attract further capital inflows. However, if interest rates rise sharply or the economy deteriorates unexpectedly, Bitcoin’s price could come under pressure.

最后，宏观经济条件将发挥关键作用。如果通货膨胀涉及重新出现或法定货币面临贬值，比特币可以作为树篱并吸引进一步的资本流入。但是，如果利率急剧上升或经济意外恶化，比特币的价格可能会受到压力。

Overall, while predictions for year-end 2025 vary widely, conservative estimates place BTC near the US$105,000 range by December 2025.

总体而言，虽然对2025年年底的预测差异很大，但保守的估计将BTC的范围靠近105,000美元，到2025年12月。

More bullish models suggest a peak between US$130,000 to US$150,000, especially if economic uncertainties or a liquidity-driven bull cycle emerge.

更多看涨的模型表明，在经济不确定性或流动性驱动的公牛周期出现时，尤其是在130,000美元至150,000美元之间的顶峰。