儘管經濟衰退擔心，但機構投資者的需求和公司採用可能會提高比特幣。

投資者認為，美國美聯儲將保持利率有利於比特幣價格上漲。

Stock markets around the world responded positively to the temporary suspension of import tariffs between the United States and the European Union, with the S&P 500 rising 1.5% on May 27. However, concerns over a global economic recession are persisting, which may put a lid on Bitcoin’s upside, especially since the baseline US import rates have been raised for most regions.

全世界的股票市場對美國和歐盟之間的進口關稅暫時暫停，500指數在5月27日上漲1.5％。但是，對全球經濟衰退的擔憂持續存在，這可能會使比特幣的上漲空間提高了大多數地區的基線進口率，這可能會使比特幣的上漲空間提高。

Investors' belief that the US Federal Reserve will hold rates favors Bitcoin price upside

投資者認為美國美聯儲將持有利率有利於比特幣價格上漲空間

Traders currently estimate a 41% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates through September, a steep increase from just 2% one month ago.

貿易商目前估計，美國美聯儲（美聯儲）將在9月份保持利率的機會有41％的機會，這比一個月前的2％急劇增加。

Usually, a higher cost for capital is bearish for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. But in this context, it also suggests potential liquidity injections from the Fed, given the unfavorable US fiscal outlook, where government spending exceeds revenue capacity.

通常，對於比特幣等風險資產，資本成本更高。但是在這種情況下，考慮到不利的美國財政前景，政府支出超過收入能力，美聯儲的潛在流動性注入。

President Donald Trump has been calling for lower interest rates, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell is showing no urgency due to a strong labor market and rising inflation pressures, whether driven by tariffs or easy lending conditions. This tension helps explain why the S&P 500 has struggled to regain its February all-time high of 6,147 and why Bitcoin’s upside has also been limited.

唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統一直在呼籲降低利率，但聯邦政府主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）由於勞動力市場的強勁和通貨膨脹壓力而沒有表現出任何緊迫性，無論是由關稅還是易於貸款條件驅動。這種張力有助於解釋為什麼標準普爾500指數努力重新獲得2月的6,147年級，以及為什麼比特幣的上升空間也受到限制。

Bitcoin’s current market capitalization of $2.2 trillion now surpasses that of Google and Meta, which partly explains the $112,000 resistance level. Yet, it would be surprising if Bitcoin completely detaches from traditional markets; its 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 has remained above 70% for the past four weeks. As such, if equities enter a bear market, Bitcoin is likely to face some downside as well.

比特幣目前的2.2萬億美元市值現在超過了Google和Meta，這部分解釋了112,000美元的電阻水平。但是，如果比特幣完全脫離了傳統市場，那將是令人驚訝的。在過去的四個星期中，它與標準普爾500指數的30天相關性在70％以上。因此，如果股票進入熊市，比特幣也可能面臨一些不利之處。

Companies are currently reporting earnings for the first quarter, a period that predates the escalation of the trade war. As a result, the stock market may take longer to reflect the full negative impact, even as macroeconomic indicators show signs of contraction. The 6.3% drop in US durable goods orders in April, reported on May 27, could be the first signal of a weakening economy.

公司目前正在報告第一季度的收益，該期限早於貿易戰的升級。結果，即使宏觀經濟指標顯示出收縮的跡象，股市可能需要更長的時間來反映全部負面影響。 5月27日報導的4月，美國耐用商品訂單下降了6.3％，這可能是經濟衰退的第一個信號。

However, even if cooperate earnings for Q1 fall short of expectations, this does not automatically mean the S&P 500 will suffer significantly. In fact, disappointing results could open the door for faster interest rate cuts, which tend to benefit companies by lowering financing costs and potentially stimulating consumer demand.

但是，即使第1季度的合作收益均未達到預期，這並不意味著標準普爾500指數將遭受重大損失。實際上，令人失望的結果可能會為更快的降低利率打開大門，這往往會通過降低融資成本和潛在刺激消費者需求而受益。

Trump Media joins the party as Bitcoin's appeal grows

隨著比特幣的上訴增長，特朗普媒體加入了黨派

On a broader note, the risk profile of Bitcoin appears to be improving, especially after Trump Media and Technology Group announced plans to invest in BTC following a $2.5 billion mix of debt and equity financing to launch a new social media platform. “We view Bitcoin as an apex instrument of financial freedom,” Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes said, according to Reuters, adding that the company is exploring opportunities in cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. This development suggests that Bitcoin’s trajectory toward $112,000 is not solely tied to broader economic growth but also to emerging opportunities in alternative financial and technological domains.

從廣義上講，比特幣的風險概況似乎正在改善，尤其是在特朗普媒體和技術集團宣布計劃在25億美元的債務和股權融資以推出新的社交媒體平台之後，計劃投資BTC。路透社說：“我們將比特幣視為財務自由的最高工具。”據路透社稱，該公司正在探索加密貨幣和區塊鏈技術的機會。這一發展表明，比特幣對112,000美元的軌跡不僅與更廣泛的經濟增長有關，而且還與替代財務和技術領域的新興機會有關。

The growing institutional and corporate interest in Bitcoin is adding a new dimension to its market behavior. While macroeconomic trends and correlations with traditional assets still matter, Bitcoin is increasingly being framed as a strategic asset with utility beyond speculation. As such, its performance could diverge, at least partially, from that of equities, especially as adoption broadens among influential companies and investors.

對比特幣的製度和企業興趣不斷增長，正在為其市場行為增加一個新的維度。儘管宏觀經濟趨勢和與傳統資產的相關性仍然很重要，但比特幣越來越多地被構建為一種戰略資產，其實用性超出了猜測。因此，它的績效至少可能與股票的績效不同，尤其是在有影響力的公司和投資者之間的採用範圍擴大時。

While the stock market may remain sensitive to macro data and earnings surprises, Bitcoin’s upside potential appears to hinge on a combination of monetary policy, institutional positioning, and its emerging role as a hedge against systemic financial risk.

儘管股票市場可能對宏觀數據和收益驚喜保持敏感，但比特幣的上漲潛力似乎取決於貨幣政策，機構定位以及其新興的作用，作為抵抗系統性金融風險的對沖。