尽管经济衰退担心，但机构投资者的需求和公司采用可能会提高比特币。

投资者认为，美国美联储将保持利率有利于比特币价格上涨。

Stock markets around the world responded positively to the temporary suspension of import tariffs between the United States and the European Union, with the S&P 500 rising 1.5% on May 27. However, concerns over a global economic recession are persisting, which may put a lid on Bitcoin’s upside, especially since the baseline US import rates have been raised for most regions.

全世界的股票市场对美国和欧盟之间的进口关税暂时暂停，500指数在5月27日上涨1.5％。但是，对全球经济衰退的担忧持续存在，这可能会使比特币的上涨空间提高了大多数地区的基线进口率，这可能会使比特币的上涨空间提高。

Investors' belief that the US Federal Reserve will hold rates favors Bitcoin price upside

投资者认为美国美联储将持有利率有利于比特币价格上涨空间

Traders currently estimate a 41% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates through September, a steep increase from just 2% one month ago.

贸易商目前估计，美国美联储（美联储）将在9月份保持利率的机会有41％的机会，这比一个月前的2％急剧增加。

Usually, a higher cost for capital is bearish for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. But in this context, it also suggests potential liquidity injections from the Fed, given the unfavorable US fiscal outlook, where government spending exceeds revenue capacity.

通常，对于比特币等风险资产，资本成本更高。但是在这种情况下，考虑到不利的美国财政前景，政府支出超过收入能力，美联储的潜在流动性注入。

President Donald Trump has been calling for lower interest rates, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell is showing no urgency due to a strong labor market and rising inflation pressures, whether driven by tariffs or easy lending conditions. This tension helps explain why the S&P 500 has struggled to regain its February all-time high of 6,147 and why Bitcoin’s upside has also been limited.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统一直在呼吁降低利率，但联邦政府主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）由于劳动力市场的强劲和通货膨胀压力而没有表现出任何紧迫性，无论是由关税还是易于贷款条件驱动。这种张力有助于解释为什么标准普尔500指数努力重新获得2月的6,147年级，以及为什么比特币的上升空间也受到限制。

Bitcoin’s current market capitalization of $2.2 trillion now surpasses that of Google and Meta, which partly explains the $112,000 resistance level. Yet, it would be surprising if Bitcoin completely detaches from traditional markets; its 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 has remained above 70% for the past four weeks. As such, if equities enter a bear market, Bitcoin is likely to face some downside as well.

比特币目前的2.2万亿美元市值现在超过了Google和Meta，这部分解释了112,000美元的电阻水平。但是，如果比特币完全脱离了传统市场，那将是令人惊讶的。在过去的四个星期中，它与标准普尔500指数的30天相关性在70％以上。因此，如果股票进入熊市，比特币也可能面临一些不利之处。

Companies are currently reporting earnings for the first quarter, a period that predates the escalation of the trade war. As a result, the stock market may take longer to reflect the full negative impact, even as macroeconomic indicators show signs of contraction. The 6.3% drop in US durable goods orders in April, reported on May 27, could be the first signal of a weakening economy.

公司目前正在报告第一季度的收益，该期限早于贸易战的升级。结果，即使宏观经济指标显示出收缩的迹象，股市可能需要更长的时间来反映全部负面影响。 5月27日报道的4月，美国耐用商品订单下降了6.3％，这可能是经济衰退的第一个信号。

However, even if cooperate earnings for Q1 fall short of expectations, this does not automatically mean the S&P 500 will suffer significantly. In fact, disappointing results could open the door for faster interest rate cuts, which tend to benefit companies by lowering financing costs and potentially stimulating consumer demand.

但是，即使第1季度的合作收益均未达到预期，这并不意味着标准普尔500指数将遭受重大损失。实际上，令人失望的结果可能会为更快的降低利率打开大门，这往往会通过降低融资成本和潜在刺激消费者需求而受益。

Trump Media joins the party as Bitcoin's appeal grows

随着比特币的上诉增长，特朗普媒体加入了党派

On a broader note, the risk profile of Bitcoin appears to be improving, especially after Trump Media and Technology Group announced plans to invest in BTC following a $2.5 billion mix of debt and equity financing to launch a new social media platform. “We view Bitcoin as an apex instrument of financial freedom,” Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes said, according to Reuters, adding that the company is exploring opportunities in cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. This development suggests that Bitcoin’s trajectory toward $112,000 is not solely tied to broader economic growth but also to emerging opportunities in alternative financial and technological domains.

从广义上讲，比特币的风险概况似乎正在改善，尤其是在特朗普媒体和技术集团宣布计划在25亿美元的债务和股权融资以推出新的社交媒体平台之后，计划投资BTC。路透社说：“我们将比特币视为财务自由的最高工具。”据路透社称，该公司正在探索加密货币和区块链技术的机会。这一发展表明，比特币对112,000美元的轨迹不仅与更广泛的经济增长有关，而且还与替代财务和技术领域的新兴机会有关。

The growing institutional and corporate interest in Bitcoin is adding a new dimension to its market behavior. While macroeconomic trends and correlations with traditional assets still matter, Bitcoin is increasingly being framed as a strategic asset with utility beyond speculation. As such, its performance could diverge, at least partially, from that of equities, especially as adoption broadens among influential companies and investors.

对比特币的制度和企业兴趣不断增长，正在为其市场行为增加一个新的维度。尽管宏观经济趋势和与传统资产的相关性仍然很重要，但比特币越来越多地被构建为一种战略资产，其实用性超出了猜测。因此，它的绩效至少可能与股票的绩效不同，尤其是在有影响力的公司和投资者之间的采用范围扩大时。

While the stock market may remain sensitive to macro data and earnings surprises, Bitcoin’s upside potential appears to hinge on a combination of monetary policy, institutional positioning, and its emerging role as a hedge against systemic financial risk.

尽管股票市场可能对宏观数据和收益惊喜保持敏感，但比特币的上涨潜力似乎取决于货币政策，机构定位以及其新兴的作用，作为抵抗系统性金融风险的对冲。