ICO 2.0：去中心化資本形成的重新出現

2025 年美國的監管改革和全球加密貨幣對抗的解凍將迎來新一代去中心化資本形成

After a period of regulatory uncertainty and decline, a new era of decentralized capital formation is poised to emerge in 2025, driven by a shift in regulatory stance, market dynamics, and technological advancements. This evolution will differ significantly from the initial coin offering (ICO) boom of 2017 and will be characterized by a focus on value accrual, regulatory compliance, and a wider range of investment opportunities.

經過一段時期的監管不確定性和衰退之後，在監管立場、市場動態和技術進步轉變的推動下，去中心化資本形成的新時代將於 2025 年出現。這一演變將與 2017 年首次代幣發行 (ICO) 熱潮顯著不同，其特點是關注價值累積、監管合規性和更廣泛的投資機會。

During the 2010s, crypto struggled to find a productive use case for Bitcoin and altcoins until Ethereum smart contracts enabled early-stage teams to raise capital from supporters around the globe. This led to a surge in ICOs, which offered a novel way to access early-stage investment opportunities that were typically reserved for venture capitalists (VCs).

在 2010 年代，加密貨幣一直在努力尋找比特幣和山寨幣的高效用例，直到以太坊智能合約使早期團隊能夠從全球支持者那裡籌集資金。這導致了 ICO 的激增，它提供了一種獲取早期投資機會的新穎方式，而這些機會通常是為創投家 (VC) 保留的。

However, ICOs faced increasing scrutiny from regulators, who argued that many tokens failed the Howey test and were thus securities offerings. This led to a crackdown on ICOs, with many being shut down or forced to return funds. By 2020, ICOs had slowed to a trickle, and 88% of ICO tokens were trading below issuance price.

然而，ICO 面臨監管機構越來越嚴格的審查，監管機構認為許多代幣未能通過 Howey 測試，因此屬於證券發行。這導致了對 ICO 的打擊，許多 ICO 被關閉或被迫退還資金。到 2020 年，ICO 的速度已放緩至涓涓細流，88% 的 ICO 代幣交易價格低於發行價。

Fast forward to 2025 and we can see the convergence of some important inputs that allow for the re-emergence of compelling investment opportunities, but with very different characteristics from ICO 1.0.

快進到 2025 年，我們可以看到一些重要投入的融合，這些投入使得引人注目的投資機會重新出現，但其特徵與 ICO 1.0 截然不同。

The ingredients of ICO 2.0

ICO 2.0 的組成部分

1. Updated regulatory stance

1. 更新監理立場

I predict that value accrual will be a fundamental part of the “why” of investing in tokens this time around. Entrepreneurs and investors in the space have matured and are ready to collectively admit that there is an expectation of profit with most tokens. In fact, one could argue that the obfuscation of how token holders would be compensated as a hand-wavey attempt to sidestep the Howey test was the primary problem the first time around.

我預測，價值累積將是這次投資代幣的「原因」的基本部分。該領域的企業家和投資者已經成熟，並準備好集體承認大多數代幣都有獲利預期。事實上，有人可能會爭辯說，對代幣持有者如何獲得補償的混淆是第一次出現的主要問題，這是迴避 Howey 測試的手動嘗試。

KYC/AML will be focused on on-ramps and off-ramps such as exchanges and L2 bridges, and reasonably concentrate at the point of realization of gains back into fiat, which is the appropriate light touch that should satisfy reasonable regulators.

KYC/AML 將重點放在交易所和 L2 橋等入口和出口，並合理地集中在將收益變回法幣的點上，這是應該滿足合理監管機構的適當輕觸。

2. Market turnover

2、市場成交量

We are seeing the rapid decline of certain mid-market companies that could remake their business models by becoming community-led and decentralized. For example, mid-size media companies including newspapers and magazines are an obvious business model that could be greatly improved by the use of a token economy to drive citizen journalists towards greater professionalism.

我們看到某些中型市場公司正在迅速衰落，這些公司可以透過社區主導和去中心化來重塑其商業模式。例如，包括報紙和雜誌在內的中型媒體公司是一種明顯的商業模式，可以透過使用代幣經濟來極大地改善這種模式，以推動公民記者走向更高的專業水平。

3. Crypto's progression

3. 加密貨幣的進展

In 2017 we had ICO-click-races on very rough UI/UX interfaces, pre-launch SAFT (Simple Agreement for Future Tokens) rounds going to a handful of VCs and years of waiting until a live network launch. No one should be surprised then that the majority of ICO projects died. The Darwinian nature of any emerging technology is such that most will perish but the few that survive go on to create great value (spoiler alert: >90% of AI projects are going away as well).

2017 年，我們在非常粗糙的 UI/UX 介面上進行了 ICO 點擊競賽，啟動前的 SAFT（未來代幣簡單協議）輪次將由少數創投公司參與，並等待數年才能上線網路。對於大多數 ICO 專案的失敗，沒有人應該感到驚訝。任何新興技術的達爾文質地都是這樣的：大多數技術都會消亡，但少數倖存下來的技術會繼續創造巨大的價值（劇透警告：> 90% 的人工智慧專案也將消失）。

Crypto now has decent on-boarding and good user-facing apps, and most importantly, the community has shown an uncanny ability to publicly call out nonsense and root out bad actors far better than government oversight ever has. The light of open decentralized ledgers is a particularly strong disinfectant.

加密貨幣現在擁有不錯的入門和良好的面向用戶的應用程序，最重要的是，社區已經表現出了一種不可思議的能力，可以公開指出胡言亂語並根除不良行為者，其效果遠遠好於政府的監督。開放式去中心化帳本的光芒是一種特別強大的消毒劑。

Implications and predictions

影響和預測

So what does all this mean for the crypto community?

那麼這一切對加密社群意味著什麼呢？

This new wave of decentralized capital formation will dwarf the approximately $20 billion of capital allocated in ICO 1.0 in 2017 and 2018. Over the coming years, we will see hundreds of billions in total capital formation across DeFi, NFTs, RWAs and a plethora of other crypto primitives.

這波新的去中心化資本形成浪潮將使2017 年和2018 年ICO 1.0 分配的約200 億美元資本相形見絀。達到數千億美元。

M&A activity will represent a significant component of on-chain capital formation activity. Whether it is traditional businesses getting serious about crypto and buying up lost ground, like the Stripe-Bridge deal or EVM L2s joining forces as they recognize that only a handful will survive to be significant, we will see billions of dollars worth of M&A activity in the coming year.

併購活動將成為鏈上資本形成活動的重要組成部分。無論是傳統企業認真對待加密貨幣並收復失地，例如 Stripe-Bridge 交易，還是 EVM L2 因認識到只有少數企業能夠生存下來而聯手，我們將看到價值數十億美元的併購活動來年。

In addition, mid-market Web2 and legacy companies will seek to reinvent their business model now that they can use token-incentivization under less hostile circumstances. We are seeing companies in energy, media, art and cellular communications get serious about token-incentivization to turn their value chain into an open marketplace, as well as rapidly acquire customers and use cheap(er) labour.

此外，中階市場的 Web2 和傳統公司將尋求重新發明他們的商業模式，因為他們可以在不太敵對的環境下使用代幣誘因。我們看到能源、媒體、藝術和行動通訊領域的公司認真對待代幣激勵，將其價值鏈轉變為開放市場，並快速獲取客戶並使用更廉價的勞動力。

I am also optimistic that regenerative financing, blending a capitalistic mandate and philanthropic mandate, will find its place. And I am very excited about how crypto can change paradigms in bridging reasonable returns on capital with social goals in more compelling ways than we've seen to date.

我還樂觀地認為，融合了資本主義使命和慈善使命的再生融資將找到自己的位置。我對加密貨幣如何改變範式，以比我們迄今為止所看到的更引人注目的方式將合理的資本回報與社會目標聯繫起來感到非常興奮。

I predict that we will see a range of novel ways to choose ICO participants, whether as a reward to LPs, relying on reputation based on on-chain activity or via the usage of certain proofs. The byproduct of this is that we will see better balance

我預測我們將看到一系列新的方式來選擇 ICO 參與者，無論是作為對 LP 的獎勵、依賴基於鏈上活動的聲譽還是透過使用某些證明。這樣做的副產品是我們將看到更好的平衡