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儘管長期持有人出售,但比特幣的價格仍穩定。這是“安靜的重新分配”還是牛市疲勞的跡象?讓我們潛水。
Bitcoin's been dancing between $100,000 and $110,000 since May, leaving us all wondering, 'What's next?' But beneath the surface, some interesting shifts are happening with Bitcoin holders and how they're affecting the price.
自5月以來,比特幣一直在跳舞100,000至110,000美元,讓我們所有人都想知道:“下一步是什麼?”但是在表面下,比特幣持有人正在發生一些有趣的轉變,以及它們如何影響價格。
Long-Term Holders Are Selling, But Bitcoin's Not Breaking Down?
長期持有人正在銷售,但是比特幣沒有崩潰?
Yep, you heard that right. According to CryptoQuant, long-term holders (LTHs) – those who've been holding onto their BTC for over six months – have been steadily selling. Indicators like Spent Output Age Bands (SOAB) and Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) back this up. SOAB tracks the age of spent Bitcoin, while Binary CDD shows whether LTHs spent any coins on a given day.
是的,你聽說那是對的。據CryptoQuant稱,長期持有人(LTHS)(那些一直持有BTC超過六個月的人)一直在穩步銷售。諸如支出的輸出年齡段(SOAB)和二進制硬幣日(CDD)之類的指標將其備份。 Soab跟踪了花費比特幣的年齡,而二進制CDD顯示了LTHS是否在給定的日子里花了任何硬幣。
Now, here's the kicker: even with this selling pressure, Bitcoin's price hasn't crashed. What gives? It seems new buyers are stepping in, absorbing the supply. One analyst says this "healthy rotation" from strong hands to new buyers is actually a good sign for a sustained bullish trend.
現在,這是踢球者:即使有銷售壓力,比特幣的價格也沒有崩潰。什麼給?似乎新買家正在介入,吸收了供應。一位分析師說,從強大的手到新買家的“健康輪換”實際上是持續看漲趨勢的好兆頭。
A "Quiet Redistribution" in Progress?
正在進行的“安靜重新分配”?
One theory is that we're in a phase of "quiet redistribution." LTHs are selling, but enough demand is there to keep the price afloat, potentially setting the stage for the next big move. We're also seeing activity from holders who bought BTC one to three years ago, likely taking profits from previous cycle lows.
一種理論是我們處於“安靜重新分配”階段。 lths正在銷售,但是有足夠的需求以保持價格流利,有可能為下一個大舉動奠定基礎。我們還看到了一到三年前購買BTC的持有人的活動,這可能是從以前的周期低點中獲利的。
This selling doesn't necessarily mean weakness. It could signal a shift in market leadership from older to newer holders, which is typical in the mid-to-late stages of a bull market.
這種銷售並不一定意味著弱點。它可能表明市場領導層從較舊的持有人轉變為新持有人,這在牛市的中部階段是典型的。
Not Everyone's Convinced
並非每個人都相信
Of course, not everyone's on board with the bullish outlook. Some analysts point to the Bitcoin MVRV ratio showing signs of bull market fatigue. Plus, even with the recent price bounce, Bitcoin network activity remains relatively low, raising concerns about overall user engagement.
當然,並不是每個人都喜歡看漲的前景。一些分析師指出,比特幣MVRV比率顯示出牛市疲勞的跡象。另外,即使是最近的價格反彈,比特幣網絡活動仍然相對較低,這引起了人們對整體用戶參與度的擔憂。
American Bitcoin: A New Player in the Mining Game
美國比特幣:採礦遊戲的新玩家
In other news, American Bitcoin, backed by Eric Trump, just raised $220 million to expand its Bitcoin mining operations. They're even using some of that equity to buy Bitcoin, showing they're in it for the long haul. Donald Trump Jr. even said that simply buying Bitcoin is only half the story, suggesting mining gives them a strategic edge.
在其他新聞中,由埃里克·特朗普(Eric Trump)支持的美國比特幣剛剛籌集了2.2億美元,以擴大其比特幣採礦業務。他們甚至使用一些權益來購買比特幣,這表明他們長期以來就在其中。小唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump Jr.)甚至說,僅僅購買比特幣只是故事的一半,這表明採礦使他們具有戰略優勢。
My Take: A Cautiously Optimistic View
我的看法:謹慎樂觀的觀點
While there are conflicting signals, the fact that Bitcoin is holding its own despite LTH selling is encouraging. The influx of new buyers suggests there's still plenty of interest in BTC. However, it's crucial to keep an eye on network activity and broader market sentiment. The entry of companies like American Bitcoin also shows increased institutional interest, which can provide further price support.
儘管有矛盾的信號,但儘管Lth銷售令人鼓舞,但比特幣仍擁有自己的事實。新買家的湧入表明,對BTC仍然有很多興趣。但是,關注網絡活動和更廣泛的市場情緒至關重要。像美國比特幣這樣的公司的進入還顯示出增加的機構利益,這可以提供進一步的價格支持。
Of course, nobody has a crystal ball. The crypto market is as unpredictable as a New York City subway schedule. But for now, the 'Bitcoin, holders, price hold' story is one of resilience and potential transition.
當然,沒有人有水晶球。加密貨幣市場與紐約市的地鐵時間表一樣不可預測。但是就目前而言,“比特幣,持有人,價格持有”的故事是韌性和潛在過渡之一。
So, HODL on tight, folks! It's gonna be an interesting ride.
所以,伙計們,霍德(Hodl)緊緊!這將是一個有趣的旅程。
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