高盛警告稱，在宏觀逆風中，比特幣減半後可能會出現飆升

高盛建議謹慎行事，不要只依賴歷史減半模式來預測比特幣的表現。雖然先前的減半都伴隨著大幅反彈，但目前以高通膨和高利率為特徵的宏觀經濟環境與先前的環境不同。該投資銀行強調，在評估比特幣減半後的前景時，需要考慮更廣泛的經濟因素。

Goldman Sachs Warns Against Overestimating Bitcoin Post-Halving Surge Amid Macroeconomic Headwinds

高盛警告不要在宏觀經濟逆風中高估比特幣減半後的飆升

New York, April 17, 2024 - As the eagerly anticipated fourth Bitcoin halving approaches, Goldman Sachs has cautioned against drawing excessive parallels with previous halving events, citing the starkly different macroeconomic conditions prevailing today.

紐約，2024 年 4 月 17 日 - 隨著備受期待的第四次比特幣減半臨近，高盛警告不要與之前的減半事件過度相似，理由是當今的宏觀經濟狀況截然不同。

Macroeconomic Considerations Trump Past Precedents

宏觀經濟考量勝過過去的先例

In a note to clients on April 12, Goldman's Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities (FICC) and Equities team emphasized that the current macroeconomic landscape, characterized by high inflation and rising interest rates, significantly differs from the conditions during previous halvings.

在4月12日給客戶的報告中，高盛固定收益、貨幣和商品（FICC）和股票團隊強調，當前以高通膨和利率上升為特徵的宏觀經濟格局與之前減半期間的情況有很大不同。

Goldman urged investors to exercise caution in extrapolating the historical performance of Bitcoin after halving events, given the substantial influence of the prevailing macro environment.

鑑於當前宏觀環境的重大影響，高盛敦促投資者在推斷比特幣減半事件後的歷史表現時保持謹慎。

Miner Sentiment and Equity Market Outlook

礦工情緒和股市前景

Despite some analysts suggesting that Bitcoin's price has historically surged after halving events, investment firm Bernstein believes that investor sentiment among Bitcoin miners is currently at a peak, potentially leading to a sell-off post-halving.

儘管一些分析師認為比特幣價格在減半事件後一直飆升，但投資公司 Bernstein 認為，比特幣礦商的投資者情緒目前處於頂峰，可能會導致減半後的拋售。

Bernstein recommends that investors consider purchasing outperforming Bitcoin mining companies like Riot Platforms (RIOT) and CleanSpark (CLSK), which are expected to benefit from their superior operational execution and market-leading self-mining hashrate.

Bernstein 建議投資者考慮購買 Riot Platforms (RIOT) 和 CleanSpark (CLSK) 等表現優異的比特幣挖礦公司，這些公司預計將受益於其卓越的營運執行力和市場領先的自挖礦算力。

Stablecoin Legislation Takes a Step Forward

穩定幣立法向前邁進了一步

In a significant development for the crypto industry, U.S. Senators Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) have introduced a bill seeking to establish a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins, cryptocurrencies pegged to the value of another asset or currency.

作為加密產業的重大發展，美國參議員辛西婭·魯米斯（懷俄明州共和黨）和克爾斯滕·吉利布蘭德（紐約州民主黨）提出了一項法案，尋求為穩定幣、與另一種資產價值掛鉤的加密貨幣建立明確的監管框架或貨幣。

The proposed bill outlines specific reserve and operational requirements for payment stablecoin issuers, including the establishment of separate subsidiaries dedicated to issuing stablecoins. It also mandates that stablecoin issuers exclusively deal in dollar-backed tokens.

擬議的法案概述了支付穩定幣發行人的特定準備金和營運要求，包括建立專門發行穩定幣的獨立子公司。它還要求穩定幣發行人只能交易美元支持的代幣。

Stablecoins as a Proxy for Market Liquidity

穩定幣作為市場流動性的代理

Despite the recent stall in Bitcoin's rally, the combined market capitalization of the top three stablecoins—USDT, USDC, and DAI—has reached a record high of $146 billion, indicating a steady expansion of liquidity in the crypto market.

儘管近期比特幣漲勢陷入停滯，但三大穩定幣——USDT、USDC和DAI——的總市值已達到1,460億美元的歷史新高，顯示加密市場的流動性穩步擴張。

This surge in stablecoin supply, often viewed as a proxy for market liquidity, provides positive signals for the overall health and growth potential of the crypto industry.

穩定幣供應量的激增通常被視為市場流動性的代表，為加密貨幣行業的整體健康和成長潛力提供了積極的信號。

Cautious Optimism Amid Regulatory and Macroeconomic Uncertainties

在監管和宏觀經濟的不確定性中保持謹慎樂觀

While the Bitcoin halving has historically been associated with price rallies, experts caution against assuming a similar outcome in the current macroeconomic climate. The introduction of stablecoin regulation is a positive step towards legitimizing the crypto market, but its long-term impact remains to be seen. Investors should approach the post-halving market with a balanced perspective, considering both the potential for price appreciation and the risks associated with the prevailing macroeconomic conditions.

雖然比特幣減半歷來與價格上漲有關，但專家警告不要在當前的宏觀經濟環境下假設類似的結果。穩定幣監管的引入是加密貨幣市場合法化的積極一步，但其長期影響仍有待觀察。投資人應以平衡的視角看待減半後的市場，既要考慮價格上漲的潛力，也要考慮與當前宏觀經濟狀況相關的風險。