高盛警告称，在宏观逆风中，比特币减半后可能会出现飙升

高盛建议谨慎行事，不要仅仅依靠历史减半模式来预测比特币的表现。虽然之前的减半都伴随着大幅反弹，但当前以高通胀和高利率为特征的宏观经济环境与之前的环境不同。该投资银行强调，在评估比特币减半后的前景时，需要考虑更广泛的经济因素。

Goldman Sachs Warns Against Overestimating Bitcoin Post-Halving Surge Amid Macroeconomic Headwinds

高盛警告不要在宏观经济逆风中高估比特币减半后的飙升

New York, April 17, 2024 - As the eagerly anticipated fourth Bitcoin halving approaches, Goldman Sachs has cautioned against drawing excessive parallels with previous halving events, citing the starkly different macroeconomic conditions prevailing today.

纽约，2024 年 4 月 17 日 - 随着备受期待的第四次比特币减半临近，高盛警告不要与之前的减半事件过度相似，理由是当今的宏观经济状况截然不同。

Macroeconomic Considerations Trump Past Precedents

宏观经济考量胜过过去的先例

In a note to clients on April 12, Goldman's Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities (FICC) and Equities team emphasized that the current macroeconomic landscape, characterized by high inflation and rising interest rates, significantly differs from the conditions during previous halvings.

在4月12日给客户的一份报告中，高盛固定收益、货币和商品（FICC）和股票团队强调，当前以高通胀和利率上升为特征的宏观经济格局与之前减半期间的情况有很大不同。

Goldman urged investors to exercise caution in extrapolating the historical performance of Bitcoin after halving events, given the substantial influence of the prevailing macro environment.

鉴于当前宏观环境的重大影响，高盛敦促投资者在推断比特币减半事件后的历史表现时保持谨慎。

Miner Sentiment and Equity Market Outlook

矿工情绪和股市前景

Despite some analysts suggesting that Bitcoin's price has historically surged after halving events, investment firm Bernstein believes that investor sentiment among Bitcoin miners is currently at a peak, potentially leading to a sell-off post-halving.

尽管一些分析师认为比特币价格在减半事件后一直飙升，但投资公司 Bernstein 认为，比特币矿商的投资者情绪目前处于顶峰，可能会导致减半后的抛售。

Bernstein recommends that investors consider purchasing outperforming Bitcoin mining companies like Riot Platforms (RIOT) and CleanSpark (CLSK), which are expected to benefit from their superior operational execution and market-leading self-mining hashrate.

Bernstein 建议投资者考虑购买 Riot Platforms (RIOT) 和 CleanSpark (CLSK) 等表现优异的比特币挖矿公司，这些公司预计将受益于其卓越的运营执行力和市场领先的自挖矿算力。

Stablecoin Legislation Takes a Step Forward

稳定币立法向前迈进了一步

In a significant development for the crypto industry, U.S. Senators Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) have introduced a bill seeking to establish a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins, cryptocurrencies pegged to the value of another asset or currency.

作为加密行业的一项重大发展，美国参议员辛西娅·鲁米斯（怀俄明州共和党）和克尔斯滕·吉利布兰德（纽约州民主党）提出了一项法案，寻求为稳定币、与另一种资产价值挂钩的加密货币建立明确的监管框架或货币。

The proposed bill outlines specific reserve and operational requirements for payment stablecoin issuers, including the establishment of separate subsidiaries dedicated to issuing stablecoins. It also mandates that stablecoin issuers exclusively deal in dollar-backed tokens.

拟议的法案概述了支付稳定币发行人的具体准备金和运营要求，包括建立专门发行稳定币的独立子公司。它还要求稳定币发行人只能交易美元支持的代币。

Stablecoins as a Proxy for Market Liquidity

稳定币作为市场流动性的代理

Despite the recent stall in Bitcoin's rally, the combined market capitalization of the top three stablecoins—USDT, USDC, and DAI—has reached a record high of $146 billion, indicating a steady expansion of liquidity in the crypto market.

尽管近期比特币涨势陷入停滞，但三大稳定币——USDT、USDC和DAI——的总市值已达到1460亿美元的历史新高，表明加密市场的流动性稳步扩张。

This surge in stablecoin supply, often viewed as a proxy for market liquidity, provides positive signals for the overall health and growth potential of the crypto industry.

稳定币供应量的激增通常被视为市场流动性的代表，为加密货币行业的整体健康和增长潜力提供了积极的信号。

Cautious Optimism Amid Regulatory and Macroeconomic Uncertainties

监管和宏观经济的不确定性中保持谨慎乐观

While the Bitcoin halving has historically been associated with price rallies, experts caution against assuming a similar outcome in the current macroeconomic climate. The introduction of stablecoin regulation is a positive step towards legitimizing the crypto market, but its long-term impact remains to be seen. Investors should approach the post-halving market with a balanced perspective, considering both the potential for price appreciation and the risks associated with the prevailing macroeconomic conditions.

虽然比特币减半历来与价格上涨有关，但专家警告不要在当前的宏观经济环境下假设类似的结果。稳定币监管的引入是加密货币市场合法化的积极一步，但其长期影响仍有待观察。投资者应以平衡的视角看待减半后的市场，既要考虑价格上涨的潜力，也要考虑与当前宏观经济状况相关的风险。