美國美聯儲的首選通貨膨脹措施在2月急劇提升

核心個人消費支出價格指數攀升了0.4％，這是自2024年1月以來最大的每月飆升，而消費者支出的增長不超過預期。

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure posted a sharper-than-anticipated increase in February, with the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE price index) climbing 0.4%—the largest monthly spike since January 2024—while consumer spending growth fell short of expectations, the Commerce Department reported on Friday.

美國美聯儲的首選通貨膨脹措施在2月份的增長幅度超過了，核心的個人消費支出價格指數（PCE價格指數）攀升0.4％，這是自2024年1月以來的每月最大的激增，而消費者支出的增長不足。

The core PCE price index, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, pushed the annual inflation rate to 2.8%, remaining above the Fed’s 2% target. Overall, PCE prices went up 0.3% for the month and 2.5% year-over-year, driven by persistent increases in services and goods costs, including health care, financial services, and recreational goods. The data shows ongoing inflationary pressures complicating the central bank’s path to rate cuts.

不包括波動性食品和能源成本的核心PCE價格指數將年通貨膨脹率提高到2.8％，保持在美聯儲的2％目標之上。總體而言，由PCE價格上漲0.3％，同比上漲2.5％，這是由於服務和商品成本的持續增長，包括醫療保健，金融服務和休閒商品。數據顯示，持續的通貨膨脹壓力使中央銀行削減速度的途徑變得複雜。

Consumer spending, a key driver of economic activity, grew just 0.4% in February to $87.8 billion, less than the $88.0 billion analysts expected. Gains were largely seen in spending on goods at $56.3 billion—specifically, motor vehicles and recreational items—while services outlays turned up $31.5 billion. However, spending on food services, accommodation away from home, and gasoline declined, partially offsetting the growth. Real PCE, or PCE adjusted for inflation, edged up a mere 0.1%, signaling weak demand amid high prices.

經濟活動的主要驅動力消費者支出在2月份增長了0.4％，達到878億美元，低於預期的880億美元的分析師。在563億美元的商品支出（特別是機動車和休閒物品）上，收益很大程度上出現了，而服務支出則達到了315億美元。但是，在食品服務上的支出，外面的住宿，汽油下降，部分抵消了增長。實際PCE或針對通貨膨脹進行了調整的PCE，僅增長了0.1％，這表明需求疲軟，而價格較高。

Financial markets reacted sharply to the report, with all major U.S. stock indices trading lower following the news. Bitcoin (BTC) price plunged to an intraday low of $83,920 per unit as investors booked profits from crypto assets. Gold, a traditional hedge against inflation, held firm at $3,071 per ounce at 11:30 a.m. ET on Friday as it signaled economic uncertainty.

金融市場對該報告做出了巨大的反應，新聞後，美國所有主要股票指數的交易較低。隨著投資者從加密貨幣資產預訂利潤，比特幣（BTC）的價格下跌至每單位83,920美元。戈爾（Gold）是一種反對通貨膨脹的對沖，在周五美國東部時間上午11:30的每盎司3,071美元的企業表明經濟不確定性。

The Commerce Department also noted that personal income went up 0.8% in February, supported by strong wage growth and an increase in government transfer receipts, like health insurance subsidies. Disposable income went up 0.9%, and real disposable income went up 0.5%. Finally, the personal saving rate remained at 4.6% in February, suggesting that households are still exercising caution with their spending amid sticky inflation.

商務部還指出，2月份的個人收入增長了0.8％，並得到了強勁的工資增長和政府轉讓收入的增加，例如健康保險補貼。可支配收入增長了0.9％，實際可支配收入上漲了0.5％。最後，個人儲蓄率在2月保持4.6％，表明家庭在通貨膨脹的情況下仍在謹慎行事。

In January, income growth was revised downward. From prior reports, wages are now seen rising 0.2% in January, and farm proprietors’ income is estimated to have decreased by $33.9 billion. The decrease in farm income was mainly due to a lower contribution from government programs, specifically, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and Economic Injury Disaster Loan Program (EIDL) payments, which are included in net interest paid by government. These programs provided aid to businesses and farmers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the adjustment in January’s income data resulted in a downward revision to the 4Q2023 GDP growth to 0.6% quarter-over-quarter.

一月份，收入增長向下修改。從先前的報告中，工資現在在一月份上升0.2％，農場老闆的收入估計減少了339億美元。農場收入的減少主要是由於政府計劃的貢獻較低，特別是薪水保護計劃（PPP）和經濟傷害災害貸款計劃（EIDL）付款，這些付款包含在政府支付的淨利息中。這些計劃在COVID-19-19大流行期間為企業和農民提供了援助。此外，一月份的收入數據的調整導致4Q2023 GDP增長到0.6％的四分之一四分之一。

The report comes ahead of the crucial Fed policy meeting in April, where officials will be weighing resilient inflation against signs of moderating consumer momentum and a potential slowdown in the labor market. The Commerce Department added that updated March data on income and spending will be released on April 30.

該報告是在4月至關重要的聯邦政府政策會議之前，官員們將權衡通貨膨脹與緩和消費者勢頭的跡象和勞動力市場的潛在放緩跡象。商務部補充說，最新的3月收入和支出數據將於4月30日發布。