美聯儲理事、聯邦公開市場委員會和利率：駕馭不斷變化的格局

在經濟指標波動和加密貨幣興起的情況下分析美聯儲的利率立場。

The interplay between Federal Reserve Governors, the FOMC, and interest rates is constantly in flux. This article dives into the latest insights and trends shaping monetary policy.

美聯儲理事、聯邦公開市場委員會和利率之間的相互作用不斷變化。本文深入探討影響貨幣政策的最新見解和趨勢。

Dovish Voices and Data Blackouts

鴿派聲音和數據中斷

As of late 2025, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran was advocating for a final interest rate cut in December. Despite slightly better-than-expected ADP data, Miran emphasized that policy remained too restrictive. He argued that another cut would bring rates closer to neutral, mitigating unnecessary risks. He has consistently pushed for a dovish policy shift, even after consecutive rate cuts in September and October.

截至 2025 年底，美聯儲理事斯蒂芬·米蘭 (Stephen Miran) 主張在 12 月進行最終降息。儘管 ADP 數據略好於預期，米蘭強調政策仍然過於嚴格。他認為，再次降息將使利率接近中性，從而減輕不必要的風險。即使在 9 月和 10 月連續降息之後，他仍持續推動鴿派政策轉變。

However, the prolonged U.S. government shutdown created a data blackout, leaving the Fed without crucial indicators to guide its next move. This uncertainty added complexity to the decision-making process.

然而，美國政府長期關門導致數據中斷，導緻美聯儲沒有關鍵指標來指導下一步行動。這種不確定性增加了決策過程的複雜性。

FOMC Meeting Minutes and Economic Indicators

聯邦公開市場委員會會議紀要和經濟指標

November 2025 was a crucial month for markets, with significant economic data and policy decisions on the horizon. The FOMC meeting minutes from October revealed discussions about the latest interest rate cut and future policy direction. Traders keenly watched for hints regarding balance sheet policy or further easing measures.

2025 年 11 月對市場來說是至關重要的一個月，重要的經濟數據和政策決定即將出台。 FOMC 10 月份會議紀要披露了有關最新降息和未來政策方向的討論。交易員密切關注有關資產負債表政策或進一步寬鬆措施的暗示。

Inflation data (CPI and PPI) was closely scrutinized to gauge the pace of price cooling after a year of interest rate cuts. The October jobs report provided insights into the labor market's health, while the core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, offered a reflection of the true inflation trend.

通脹數據（CPI 和 PPI）受到密切關注，以衡量降息一年後價格冷卻的速度。十月份就業報告提供了對勞動力市場健康狀況的深入了解，而美聯儲首選的通脹指標核心PCE價格指數則反映了真實的通脹趨勢。

Crypto's Integration and Market Volatility

加密貨幣的整合和市場波動

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller highlighted that crypto and its underlying technology are now embedded in the core infrastructure of global payments and finance. Innovations like stablecoins, tokenization, and distributed ledgers are no longer peripheral but foundational to the future of payments. This recognition signals a shift in how regulators and institutions view digital assets.

美聯儲理事 Christopher J. Waller 強調，加密貨幣及其底層技術現已嵌入全球支付和金融的核心基礎設施中。穩定幣、代幣化和分佈式賬本等創新不再是次要的，而是未來支付的基礎。這種認識標誌著監管機構和機構看待數字資產的方式發生轉變。

However, the crypto market experienced a crash in early November 2025, triggered by risk-off sentiment and warnings from Fed officials about inflation and interest rates. Austan Goolsbee expressed concerns about inflation trending the wrong way, leading to a drop in Bitcoin and altcoins.

然而，由於避險情緒以及美聯儲官員對通脹和利率的警告，加密貨幣市場在 2025 年 11 月上旬經歷了崩盤。奧斯坦·古爾斯比（Austan Goolsbee）對通貨膨脹趨勢錯誤表示擔憂，導致比特幣和山寨幣下跌。

Balancing Act: Inflation vs. Economic Growth

平衡法：通貨膨脹與經濟增長

Central banks face the challenge of cutting interest rates without reigniting inflation. Energy prices, global political situations, and fiscal plans from major economies further complicate the landscape. The US government shutdown, OPEC+ decisions, and geopolitical hotspots all contribute to market uncertainty.

各國央行面臨著在不重燃通脹的情況下降息的挑戰。能源價格、全球政治局勢和主要經濟體的財政計劃使形勢進一步複雜化。美國政府關閉、OPEC+決定以及地緣政治熱點都加劇了市場的不確定性。

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

Navigating the world of Fed Governors, FOMC decisions, and interest rates is like trying to predict the weather in New York – challenging, but always interesting! Stay informed, stay adaptable, and remember, even the experts get it wrong sometimes. Keep an eye on those economic indicators, and maybe, just maybe, you'll be able to predict the next market move. Or, you know, just enjoy the ride!

探索美聯儲理事、聯邦公開市場委員會決策和利率的世界就像試圖預測紐約的天氣一樣——具有挑戰性，但總是很有趣！保持信息靈通，保持適應能力，並記住，即使是專家有時也會出錯。密切關注這些經濟指標，也許，只是也許，您將能夠預測下一個市場走勢。或者，你知道，只是享受這段旅程！