美联储理事、联邦公开市场委员会和利率：驾驭不断变化的格局

在经济指标波动和加密货币兴起的情况下分析美联储的利率立场。

The interplay between Federal Reserve Governors, the FOMC, and interest rates is constantly in flux. This article dives into the latest insights and trends shaping monetary policy.

美联储理事、联邦公开市场委员会和利率之间的相互作用不断变化。本文深入探讨影响货币政策的最新见解和趋势。

Dovish Voices and Data Blackouts

鸽派声音和数据中断

As of late 2025, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran was advocating for a final interest rate cut in December. Despite slightly better-than-expected ADP data, Miran emphasized that policy remained too restrictive. He argued that another cut would bring rates closer to neutral, mitigating unnecessary risks. He has consistently pushed for a dovish policy shift, even after consecutive rate cuts in September and October.

截至 2025 年底，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰 (Stephen Miran) 主张在 12 月进行最终降息。尽管 ADP 数据略好于预期，米兰强调政策仍然过于严格。他认为，再次降息将使利率接近中性，从而减轻不必要的风险。即使在 9 月和 10 月连续降息之后，他仍持续推动鸽派政策转变。

However, the prolonged U.S. government shutdown created a data blackout, leaving the Fed without crucial indicators to guide its next move. This uncertainty added complexity to the decision-making process.

然而，美国政府长期关门导致数据中断，导致美联储没有关键指标来指导下一步行动。这种不确定性增加了决策过程的复杂性。

FOMC Meeting Minutes and Economic Indicators

联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要和经济指标

November 2025 was a crucial month for markets, with significant economic data and policy decisions on the horizon. The FOMC meeting minutes from October revealed discussions about the latest interest rate cut and future policy direction. Traders keenly watched for hints regarding balance sheet policy or further easing measures.

2025 年 11 月对市场来说是至关重要的一个月，重要的经济数据和政策决定即将出台。 FOMC 10 月份会议纪要披露了有关最新降息和未来政策方向的讨论。交易员密切关注有关资产负债表政策或进一步宽松措施的暗示。

Inflation data (CPI and PPI) was closely scrutinized to gauge the pace of price cooling after a year of interest rate cuts. The October jobs report provided insights into the labor market's health, while the core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, offered a reflection of the true inflation trend.

通胀数据（CPI 和 PPI）受到密切关注，以衡量降息一年后价格冷却的速度。十月份就业报告提供了对劳动力市场健康状况的深入了解，而美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE价格指数则反映了真实的通胀趋势。

Crypto's Integration and Market Volatility

加密货币的整合和市场波动

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller highlighted that crypto and its underlying technology are now embedded in the core infrastructure of global payments and finance. Innovations like stablecoins, tokenization, and distributed ledgers are no longer peripheral but foundational to the future of payments. This recognition signals a shift in how regulators and institutions view digital assets.

美联储理事 Christopher J. Waller 强调，加密货币及其底层技术现已嵌入全球支付和金融的核心基础设施中。稳定币、代币化和分布式账本等创新不再是次要的，而是未来支付的基础。这种认识标志着监管机构和机构看待数字资产的方式发生转变。

However, the crypto market experienced a crash in early November 2025, triggered by risk-off sentiment and warnings from Fed officials about inflation and interest rates. Austan Goolsbee expressed concerns about inflation trending the wrong way, leading to a drop in Bitcoin and altcoins.

然而，由于避险情绪以及美联储官员对通胀和利率的警告，加密货币市场在 2025 年 11 月上旬经历了崩盘。奥斯坦·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）对通货膨胀趋势错误表示担忧，导致比特币和山寨币下跌。

Balancing Act: Inflation vs. Economic Growth

平衡法：通货膨胀与经济增长

Central banks face the challenge of cutting interest rates without reigniting inflation. Energy prices, global political situations, and fiscal plans from major economies further complicate the landscape. The US government shutdown, OPEC+ decisions, and geopolitical hotspots all contribute to market uncertainty.

各国央行面临着在不重燃通胀的情况下降息的挑战。能源价格、全球政治局势和主要经济体的财政计划使形势进一步复杂化。美国政府关闭、OPEC+决定以及地缘政治热点都加剧了市场的不确定性。

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

Navigating the world of Fed Governors, FOMC decisions, and interest rates is like trying to predict the weather in New York – challenging, but always interesting! Stay informed, stay adaptable, and remember, even the experts get it wrong sometimes. Keep an eye on those economic indicators, and maybe, just maybe, you'll be able to predict the next market move. Or, you know, just enjoy the ride!

探索美联储理事、联邦公开市场委员会决策和利率的世界就像试图预测纽约的天气一样——具有挑战性，但总是很有趣！保持信息灵通，保持适应能力，并记住，即使是专家有时也会出错。密切关注这些经济指标，也许，只是也许，您将能够预测下一个市场走势。或者，你知道，只是享受这段旅程！