探索股票在晚上的表現是否比正常交易時間更好

市場研究人員正在探索庫存在晚上的表現是否比正常交易時間更好。 “隔夜效應”異常是一個新興的概念

A new report by the advisory firm Elm Street has revealed that investing in US equities at night, specifically during the after-hours sessions, could yield more profit compared with investing during normal trading hours over the past several decades.

諮詢公司Elm Street的一份新報告透露，與過去幾十年中的正常交易時間內的投資相比，晚上，特別是在晚上的夜間投資美國股票的投資可能會產生更多的利潤。

The firm’s analysis, which focused on the S&P 500 index (SPX) and took into account the time frame of 1993 to 2022, found that investors who bought into the index at the 4:00 p.m. ET market close every session and sold their holdings at 9:30 a.m. ET the next trading day over the past 30 years would have earned 100% or higher of the market’s buy-and-hold return.

該公司的分析集中在標準普爾500指數（SPX）上，並考慮到1993年至2022年的時間範圍，發現在ET市場上下午4:00 PM Market收購該指數的投資者在每次會議上都關閉了該指數，並在過去30年的下一個交易日在下一個交易日上出售了他們的持股，在過去的30年中，他們將獲得100％或更高的市場收益。

This is in comparison with zero or negative returns for those who invested when markets were open. Keep in mind that these estimates don't consider transaction costs.

對於那些在市場開放時投資的人來說，這與零或負回報相比。請記住，這些估計不考慮交易成本。

The report highlighted an anomaly known as the ‘overnight effect,’ which occurs as most companies report their earnings after the market closes, and the market usually reacts positively to positive earnings surprises.

該報告強調了一種稱為“隔夜效應”的異常現象，它發生在大多數公司在市場結束後報告其收益時發生的，市場通常會對積極的收入驚喜做出積極反應。

The firm’s researchers stated that this would have a minimal impact on the S&P 500 as the stocks' weightings in the benchmark index are relatively small, especially over the long term.

該公司的研究人員表示，這將對標準普爾500指數產生最小的影響，因為基準指數中的股票權重相對較小，尤其是從長遠來看。

The researchers explained that while the ominoous macroeconomic backdrop has increased the volatility of financial markets, which could be a disadvantage for short-term traders, it could also present new opportunities for those who know where to look.

研究人員解釋說，儘管不撒宏觀經濟的背景增加了金融市場的波動，這可能是短期交易者的劣勢，但它也可能為那些知道在哪裡看的人帶來新的機會。

"The market is pricing in good news, and it can't handle a lot of it," said the researchers, adding that this scenario ultimately leads to "a small net negative impact on the S&P 500 over the 30-year period from 1993 to 2022 for those who invest during the day."

研究人員說：“市場的定價是個好消息，它無法處理很多市場。”他補充說，這種情況最終導致“從1993年到2022年，對於當天投資的人，對標準普爾500標準普爾500標準普爾500指數產生了很小的淨負面影響。”

The firm highlighted that this strategy would also require a high volume of trades, which would incur transactional charges. However, their estimates suggest that the overheads would cost the overnight portfolio roughly one percentage point.

該公司強調，該策略還需要大量交易，這將產生交易費用。但是，他們的估計表明，開銷將使隔夜投資組合的損失約為一個百分點。

It is also important to note that short-term trades will subject your gains to the higher short-term capital gains tax rate. So, you can avoid these implications by using the overnight effect strategy in a tax-deferred account.

同樣重要的是要注意，短期交易將使您的收益達到較高的短期資本利得稅率。因此，您可以通過在稅收遞延帳戶中使用過夜效應策略來避免這些含義。

Finally, the researchers advise against investors solely attempting to profit from market patterns, especially during a volatile macro backdrop. Rather, they should focus on "the true fundamentals of investing in order to maximize their returns over the long term."

最後，研究人員建議不要試圖從市場模式中獲利的投資者，尤其是在動蕩的宏觀背景下。相反，他們應該專注於“從長遠來看，為了最大程度地提高其回報的真正基礎。”