以太坊鯨魚的積累信號信號是pectra升級方法

隨著Pectra升級的臨近，以太坊的最大利益相關者持有1,000至10,000 ETH，悄悄地增加了他們的儲備

The Ethereum network is on the verge of its transformative Pectra upgrade, with just hours to go, and ETH traders and HODLers are scanning both on-chain and technical indicators for clues to the next directional move.

以太坊網絡正處於其變革性pectra升級的邊緣，僅需幾個小時，ETH商人和霍德爾人都在掃描鍊和技術指標，以了解下一個定向移動的線索。

As Pectra nears, the focus falls on how the largest Ethereum stakeholders, holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH, have quietly increased their reserves even as prices hovered near $1,800—a phase of deliberate accumulation.

隨著pectra的臨近，重點是最大的以太坊利益相關者如何持有1,000至10,000 ETH，即使價格徘徊在1,800美元近於1,800美元之後，這是故意積累的階段。

These addresses rose from 4,643 wallets in early December to 4,953 wallets today, highlighting a notable surge in cold-hard conviction amid unrealised losses.

這些地址從12月初的4,643個錢包上升到今天的4,953個錢包，突出了未實現的損失中的寒冷定罪的顯著激增。

On-chain data from Glassnode reveals that these whales aren’t merely sitting on the sidelines but are actively stacking ETH in anticipation of the upgrade’s outcomes.

來自GlassNode的鍊鍊數據表明，這些鯨魚不僅坐在場外，而且還在積極地堆疊ETH，以期升級升級的結果。

The steady climb in whale-held supply—from 15.5 million ETH in March to 19.0 million ETH in early May—emphasises their readiness to absorb any post-upgrade volatility.

鯨魚控制的供應量的穩定攀升 - 從3月1550萬ETH到5月初的1,9000萬ETH，都強調了他們準備吸收任何升級後波動率的準備。

Shifting tides of selling vs. buying pressure

銷售與購買壓力的轉移潮

Exchange reserves have oscillated between 19.1 and 19.8 million ETH through April, showcasing an uneasy tug-of-war between selling pressure and accumulation tendencies.

到4月，交換儲量在19.1至1980萬ETH之間的振盪，展示了銷售壓力和累積趨勢之間的不安拖船。

Since November, there has been an uptick in the Estimated Leverage Ratio, indicating futures traders are positioning for a volatility event that traders often call a liquidity squeeze.

自11月以來，估計的槓桿比率已經提高，這表明期貨交易者正在為貿易商經常稱之為流動性壓縮的波動性事件所定位。

Should HODLers offload at cost-basis thresholds above $2,000, that same leverage could exacerbate downside spirals, turning the upgrade into a catalyst for correction.

如果Hodlers以超過2,000美元的成本基礎閾值卸載，則相同的槓桿作用可能會加劇下行螺旋，從而將升級變成催化劑以進行校正。

Conversely, a sustained decline in exchange reserves after the fork would signal broad confidence and reduce systemic liquidity risks.

相反，在叉子後，交換儲量的持續下降將表明廣泛的信心並降低全身流動性風險。

With Coinbase and other major exchanges pausing ETH deposits and withdrawals during the upgrade window, market access will briefly tighten, potentially amplifying moves.

隨著Coinbase和其他主要交易所在升級窗口期間暫停ETH押金和提款，市場通道將短暫收緊，可能會放大動作。

Traders must therefore weigh the upside from fee savings and improved scalability against the risk of temporary network congestion or unforeseen protocol bugs.

因此，貿易商必鬚根據節省費用的上漲空間，並提高可伸縮性，並享有臨時網絡擁塞或不可預見的協議錯誤的風險。

Historical precedent shows that major forks can produce sharp, short-lived spikes in implied volatility, and Pectra’s scale makes it one of the most significant since the Merge.

歷史先例表明，主要的叉子可以產生隱含波動率的尖銳，短暫的尖峰，而Pectra的規模使其成為自合併以來最重要的峰值之一。

Ultimately, whether Ethereum surges toward the $2,000 mark or retests the sub-$1,700 zone hinges on how swiftly the network re-stabilises post-upgrade.

最終，無論以太坊飆升至2,000美元，還是重新測試了低於$ 1,700的區域，這都取決於該網絡如何迅速重新穩定升級後。

ETH price analysis ahead of Pectra upgrade

pectra升級之前的ETH價格分析

Ether’s price action has formed a tight consolidation range between $1,755 and $1,855, with the 100 and 200 EMA lines converging toward a bullish crossover.

Ether的價格行動已經形成了1,755至1,855美元之間的緊密合併範圍，其中100和200 EMA線融入了看漲的跨界。

This compression of moving averages and narrowing Bollinger Bands signals the potential for a decisive breakout or breakdown once the Pectra code merges.

一旦Pectra代碼合併，這種移動平均和縮小Bollinger帶的壓縮標誌著決定性突破或崩潰的潛力。

Hourly charts show the MACD teetering in the bearish zone even as RSI sits just below the neutral 50 line, suggesting momentum remains finely balanced.

每小時圖表顯示，即使RSI位於中性50線以下時，MACD搖搖欲墜，這表明動量仍然保持平衡。

Meanwhile, supply and demand zones tracked by IntoTheBlock reveal a heavier resistance wall between $1,805 and $1,857—holding nearly 5.85 million ETH—than the support zone below.

同時，Intotheblock跟踪的供求區域顯示，較重的阻力牆在1,805美元至1,857美元之間，持有近585萬張ETH，而不是下面的支撐區。

The promise and pitfalls of Pectra

Pectra的承諾和陷阱

By doubling blob capacity per block from three to six, Pectra promises significant relief for Layer-2 rollups and lower transaction fees for on-chain users.

通過將BLOB容量從三個增加到三個增加到6個，Pectra承諾對2層匯總和鏈接用戶的交易費用較低。

With EIP-7702 paving the way for account abstraction, Ethereum wallets will gain features like gas fee sponsorship and transaction batching that could broaden mainstream adoption.

隨著EIP-7702為賬戶抽象鋪平道路，以太坊錢包將獲得諸如汽油費贊助和交易批次之類的功能，可以擴大主流採用。

In addition, EIP-7251’s validator consolidation, raising the stake limit from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH, offers institutional actors a more efficient entry point, yet raises centralisation concerns.

此外，EIP-7251的驗證者合併將股份限制從32 ETH提高到2,048 ETH，為機構參與者提供了更有效的入口點，但引起了集中率的關注。

The transition toward the EVM Object Format marks a subtle but critical enhancement to contract execution efficiency that will lay the groundwork for future protocol improvements.

向EVM對象格式的過渡標誌著對合同執行效率的微妙但至關重要的增強，這將為未來的協議改進奠定基礎。

As the clock ticks down to the Pectra activation slot on May 7, Ethereum’s fate lies in the delicate interaction of on-chain fundamentals, technical momentum, and network health.

隨著5月7日的pectra激活插槽的時鐘滴答作用，以太坊的命運在於鏈基本面，技術動量和網絡健康的微妙相互作用。

If whales, HODLers, and institutions remain steadfast, the upgrade could light the fuse for a sustained rally, fulfilling long-awaited expectations.

如果鯨魚，霍德爾人和機構保持堅定不移，升級可能會為持續的集會，滿足期待期待的期望。

If, however, the price fails to clear key resistance or if reserves swell again, traders may interpret Pectra as a hype cycle rather than a structural catalyst.

但是，如果價格無法清除鑰匙阻力，或者儲備再次膨脹，則交易者可以將Pectra解釋為炒作週期，而不是結構性催化劑。