以太坊（ETH）價格預測在籃板95％後轉向看漲，但ETH確實可以持有超過$ 2,600

以太坊（ETH）正在安靜但強烈的康復。經過數週的相對靜音後，市場上限的第二大加密貨幣已攀升超過6％

The price of Ethereum (ETH) has surged in recent days, continuing a strong rebound from lows reached earlier in 2024. The second-largest cryptocurrency is now trading at levels last seen before the U.S.-induced trade unrest that began late last year.

以太坊（ETH）的價格在最近幾天飆升，持續了2024年前早些時候的低點。

The recovery in ETH has been driven by several factors, including easing macro uncertainty, a growing sense of optimism about Ethereum’s long-term role in the digital economy, and the recent Pectra upgrade, which introduced performance improvements aimed at enhancing network efficiency and transaction speed.

ETH的恢復是由幾個因素驅動的，包括緩解宏觀不確定性，對以太坊在數字經濟中的長期作用的樂觀感日益增長的感覺以及最近的Pectra升級，該升級引入了旨在提高網絡效率和交易速度的性能改進。

The upgrade went live when ETH was priced near $1,700, and its rollout has coincided with the broader price recovery, further reinforcing market confidence.

當ETH的價格接近1,700美元時，該升級即將上線，其推出與更廣泛的價格恢復相吻合，進一步增強了市場信心。

The pace of the rally so far has been measured, with trading volumes building steadily and no indication of speculative excess or leveraged positioning.

到目前為止，迄今為止的拉力賽速度已經衡量，交易量穩定地建設，沒有跡象表明投機性過剩或槓桿定位。

Let’s take a closer look at the latest developments and their implications.

讓我們仔細研究最新發展及其含義。

Bernstein highlights three key drivers

伯恩斯坦突出了三個關鍵驅動力

According to a client note by research and brokerage firm Bernstein, led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, Ethereum’s bounce is being driven by three overlapping forces that mark a departure from its previously lagging performance.

根據分析師Gautam Chhugani領導的研究和經紀公司Bernstein的客戶票據，以太坊的反彈是由三個重疊的力量驅動的，這標誌著其以前滯後的性能。

Until recently, Ethereum had been lagging both Bitcoin (BTC) and faster layer 1 competitors. The ETH to BTC ratio dropped by around 45% over the past year, as investors favored Bitcoin for its perceived store-of-value role, especially following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. At the same time, retail attention shifted toward newer chains offering lower fees and faster transactions. In Bernstein’s view, this left Ethereum stuck in the middle—it was no longer the fastest platform for everyday users, nor did it command the same level of institutional confidence as Bitcoin.

直到最近，以太坊一直落後比特幣（BTC）和更快的第1層競爭對手。在過去的一年中，ETH與BTC的比率下降了約45％，因為投資者贊成比特幣的價值儲存角色，尤其是在獲得現貨比特幣ETF的批准之後。同時，零售的注意力轉向提供較低費用和更快交易的新連鎖店。在伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）看來，這使以太坊陷入了中間，它不再是日常用戶最快的平台，也沒有像比特幣一樣具有與比特幣相同的機構信心。

However, this context is now beginning to change. Bernstein notes that Ethereum is starting to benefit from increased focus on stablecoin usage, real-world asset tokenization, and the maturation of layer 2 networks.

但是，這種情況現在開始改變。伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）指出，以太坊開始受益於對穩定使用，現實世界中的代幣化和第2層網絡的成熟的關注。

Stablecoins and tokenized securities are gaining meaningful traction as tools for payments and settlement. Ethereum hosts more than half of the total stablecoin supply, positioning it as a natural settlement layer for these transactions. Among these stablecoins, Tether (USDT) and USDC are now used in products like tokenized bonds and equities.

穩定的證券正在獲得有意義的牽引力，作為付款和和解的工具。以太坊佔總穩定供應的一半以上，將其定位為這些交易的自然沉降層。在這些Stablecoins中，Tether（USDT）和USDC現在用於令牌化債券和股票等產品中。

Real-world tokenization, now valued at over $22 billion according to RWA.xyz, is also largely centered around Ethereum, with firms like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton spearheading deployment efforts.

根據rwa.xyz的數據，現實世界中的現實代幣化也主要集中在以太坊圍繞以太坊，貝萊德（Blackrock）和富蘭克林·鄧普頓（Franklin Templeton）等公司率先進行部署工作。

The second major driver comes from Ethereum’s layer 2 ecosystem. While some have questioned whether these networks directly benefit Ethereum, Bernstein points out that several institutional-grade applications are beginning to emerge from platforms like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Coinbase-backed Base.

第二個主要驅動力來自以太坊的第2層生態系統。儘管有些人質疑這些網絡是否直接使以太坊受益，但伯恩斯坦指出，幾種機構級應用程序開始從索取，樂觀和共同支持的基礎等平台中出現。

For instance, Base generated around $84 million in revenue last year from rendering services to institutions and developers. These layer 2 platforms still rely on ETH for settlement and gas, reinforcing the asset’s underlying economic utility.

例如，去年，基地從提供機構和開發商的服務中獲得了約8400萬美元的收入。這些第2層平台仍然依靠ETH進行定居和天然氣，從而加強了資產的基本經濟公用事業。

Moreover, the recent acquisition of WonderFi by Robinhood to gain exposure to the layer 2 ecosystem suggests a broader shift in strategy among large brokers.

此外，最近通過Robinhood獲得的Wonderfi獲得了對第2層生態系統的接觸表明，大型經紀人的策略發生了更大的轉變。

Given that WonderFi operates a layer 2 network and provides services for tokenized securities, this move could pave the way for brokers to launch products like tokenized equities on Ethereum-compatible infrastructure.

鑑於Wonderfi運營著第2層網絡並為令牌證券提供服務，因此這一舉動可以為經紀人在以太坊兼容的基礎架構上推出像標記股票（如標記股票）的道路。

The third factor is more market-driven. Over the past year, many hedge funds used ETH as a hedge within their portfolios, shorting it while remaining long on other assets such as Bitcoin or Solana (SOL), which applied consistent downward pressure on ETH relative to the broader market.

第三個因素是市場驅動的。在過去的一年中，許多對沖基金將ETH用作其投資組合中的對沖，在其他資產（例如比特幣或Solana（Sol）（SOL）上保持較長的資產，它們相對於更廣泛的市場施加了一致的向下壓力。

As the Ethereum narrative begins to align more closely with real-world adoption trends and institutional capital flows, many of those short positions are being closed. Bernstein sees this unwind as one of the forces contributing to ETH’s recent outperformance.

隨著以太坊的敘述開始與現實的採用趨勢和機構資本流動更加緊密地保持一致，許多短期職位已關閉。伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）認為這是促成ETH最近表現的力量之一。

Overall, these observations suggest that Ethereum’s rise is being fueled not only by shifting sentiment but also by deeper structural changes in how the network is used and valued.

總體而言，這些觀察結果表明，以太坊的崛起不僅是通過轉移情緒來推動的，而且還通過對網絡的使用方式進行更深入的結構變化。

Pectra upgrade completed, next up is Fusaka

Pectra升級完成，接下來是Fusaka

Ethereum is entering a new phase of development, marked by a renewed push toward scalability and real-world usability. This shift began with the rollout of Pectra, the network’s most important upgrade since the Merge in 2022.

以太坊正在進入一個新的發展階段，以重新推動可擴展性和現實世界可用性的重新推動。這種轉變始於Pectra的推出，Pectra是自2022年合併以來該網絡最重要的升級。

Pectra brought several highly anticipated features, including a doubling of blob capacity for layer 2 networks, which helps reduce congestion and lower transaction fees. The upgrade also enables Account Abstraction, allowing users to pay gas fees in stablecoins such as Dai (DAI) and USD Coin (USDC).

Pectra帶來了幾個備受期待的功能，包括第2層網絡的斑點容量增加一倍，這有助於減少擁塞並降低交易費用。該升級還可以啟用帳戶抽象，使用戶可以在諸如DAI（DAI）和USD Coin（USDC）之類的Stablecoins支付汽油費。

Another major change is an increase in the maximum validator stake from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH, rendering node operations more efficient for institutional participants.

另一個主要變化是，最大驗證器股權從32 ETH增加到2,048 ETH，使機構參與者更有效地使節點操作更有效。

With Pectra now live, developer attention has shifted to Fusaka, Ethereum’s next major protocol upgrade, which is expected by the end of 2025.

隨著Pectra的現場直播，開發人員的關注已轉移到以太坊的下一個主要協議升級Fusaka，這是預計到2025年底的。

A central feature of Fusaka is Peer Data Availability Sampling, or PeerDAS

Fusaka的一個主要特徵是PEER數據可用性採樣或PEERDAS