以太坊（ETH）价格预测在篮板95％后转向看涨，但ETH确实可以持有超过$ 2,600

以太坊（ETH）正在安静但强烈的康复。经过数周的相对静音后，市场上限的第二大加密货币已攀升超过6％

The price of Ethereum (ETH) has surged in recent days, continuing a strong rebound from lows reached earlier in 2024. The second-largest cryptocurrency is now trading at levels last seen before the U.S.-induced trade unrest that began late last year.

以太坊（ETH）的价格在最近几天飙升，持续了2024年前早些时候的低点。

The recovery in ETH has been driven by several factors, including easing macro uncertainty, a growing sense of optimism about Ethereum’s long-term role in the digital economy, and the recent Pectra upgrade, which introduced performance improvements aimed at enhancing network efficiency and transaction speed.

ETH的恢复是由几个因素驱动的，包括缓解宏观不确定性，对以太坊在数字经济中的长期作用的乐观感日益增长的感觉以及最近的Pectra升级，该升级引入了旨在提高网络效率和交易速度的性能改进。

The upgrade went live when ETH was priced near $1,700, and its rollout has coincided with the broader price recovery, further reinforcing market confidence.

当ETH的价格接近1,700美元时，该升级即将上线，其推出与更广泛的价格恢复相吻合，进一步增强了市场信心。

The pace of the rally so far has been measured, with trading volumes building steadily and no indication of speculative excess or leveraged positioning.

到目前为止，迄今为止的拉力赛速度已经衡量，交易量稳定地建设，没有迹象表明投机性过剩或杠杆定位。

Let’s take a closer look at the latest developments and their implications.

让我们仔细研究最新发展及其含义。

Bernstein highlights three key drivers

伯恩斯坦突出了三个关键驱动力

According to a client note by research and brokerage firm Bernstein, led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, Ethereum’s bounce is being driven by three overlapping forces that mark a departure from its previously lagging performance.

根据分析师Gautam Chhugani领导的研究和经纪公司Bernstein的客户票据，以太坊的反弹是由三个重叠的力量驱动的，这标志着其以前滞后的性能。

Until recently, Ethereum had been lagging both Bitcoin (BTC) and faster layer 1 competitors. The ETH to BTC ratio dropped by around 45% over the past year, as investors favored Bitcoin for its perceived store-of-value role, especially following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. At the same time, retail attention shifted toward newer chains offering lower fees and faster transactions. In Bernstein’s view, this left Ethereum stuck in the middle—it was no longer the fastest platform for everyday users, nor did it command the same level of institutional confidence as Bitcoin.

直到最近，以太坊一直落后比特币（BTC）和更快的第1层竞争对手。在过去的一年中，ETH与BTC的比率下降了约45％，因为投资者赞成比特币的价值储存角色，尤其是在获得现货比特币ETF的批准之后。同时，零售的注意力转向提供较低费用和更快交易的新连锁店。在伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）看来，这使以太坊陷入了中间，它不再是日常用户最快的平台，也没有像比特币一样具有与比特币相同的机构信心。

However, this context is now beginning to change. Bernstein notes that Ethereum is starting to benefit from increased focus on stablecoin usage, real-world asset tokenization, and the maturation of layer 2 networks.

但是，这种情况现在开始改变。伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）指出，以太坊开始受益于对稳定使用，现实世界中的代币化和第2层网络的成熟的关注。

Stablecoins and tokenized securities are gaining meaningful traction as tools for payments and settlement. Ethereum hosts more than half of the total stablecoin supply, positioning it as a natural settlement layer for these transactions. Among these stablecoins, Tether (USDT) and USDC are now used in products like tokenized bonds and equities.

稳定的证券正在获得有意义的牵引力，作为付款和和解的工具。以太坊占总稳定供应的一半以上，将其定位为这些交易的自然沉降层。在这些Stablecoins中，Tether（USDT）和USDC现在用于令牌化债券和股票等产品中。

Real-world tokenization, now valued at over $22 billion according to RWA.xyz, is also largely centered around Ethereum, with firms like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton spearheading deployment efforts.

根据rwa.xyz的数据，现实世界中的现实代币化也主要集中在以太坊围绕以太坊，贝莱德（Blackrock）和富兰克林·邓普顿（Franklin Templeton）等公司率先进行部署工作。

The second major driver comes from Ethereum’s layer 2 ecosystem. While some have questioned whether these networks directly benefit Ethereum, Bernstein points out that several institutional-grade applications are beginning to emerge from platforms like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Coinbase-backed Base.

第二个主要驱动力来自以太坊的第2层生态系统。尽管有些人质疑这些网络是否直接使以太坊受益，但伯恩斯坦指出，几种机构级应用程序开始从索取，乐观和共同支持的基础等平台中出现。

For instance, Base generated around $84 million in revenue last year from rendering services to institutions and developers. These layer 2 platforms still rely on ETH for settlement and gas, reinforcing the asset’s underlying economic utility.

例如，去年，基地从提供机构和开发商的服务中获得了约8400万美元的收入。这些第2层平台仍然依靠ETH进行定居和天然气，从而加强了资产的基本经济公用事业。

Moreover, the recent acquisition of WonderFi by Robinhood to gain exposure to the layer 2 ecosystem suggests a broader shift in strategy among large brokers.

此外，最近通过Robinhood获得的Wonderfi获得了对第2层生态系统的接触表明，大型经纪人的策略发生了更大的转变。

Given that WonderFi operates a layer 2 network and provides services for tokenized securities, this move could pave the way for brokers to launch products like tokenized equities on Ethereum-compatible infrastructure.

鉴于Wonderfi运营着第2层网络并为令牌证券提供服务，因此这一举动可以为经纪人在以太坊兼容的基础架构上推出像标记股票（如标记股票）的道路。

The third factor is more market-driven. Over the past year, many hedge funds used ETH as a hedge within their portfolios, shorting it while remaining long on other assets such as Bitcoin or Solana (SOL), which applied consistent downward pressure on ETH relative to the broader market.

第三个因素是市场驱动的。在过去的一年中，许多对冲基金将ETH用作其投资组合中的对冲，在其他资产（例如比特币或Solana（Sol）（SOL）上保持较长的资产，它们相对于更广泛的市场施加了一致的向下压力。

As the Ethereum narrative begins to align more closely with real-world adoption trends and institutional capital flows, many of those short positions are being closed. Bernstein sees this unwind as one of the forces contributing to ETH’s recent outperformance.

随着以太坊的叙述开始与现实的采用趋势和机构资本流动更加紧密地保持一致，许多短期职位已关闭。伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）认为这是促成ETH最近表现的力量之一。

Overall, these observations suggest that Ethereum’s rise is being fueled not only by shifting sentiment but also by deeper structural changes in how the network is used and valued.

总体而言，这些观察结果表明，以太坊的崛起不仅是通过转移情绪来推动的，而且还通过对网络的使用方式进行更深入的结构变化。

Pectra upgrade completed, next up is Fusaka

Pectra升级完成，接下来是Fusaka

Ethereum is entering a new phase of development, marked by a renewed push toward scalability and real-world usability. This shift began with the rollout of Pectra, the network’s most important upgrade since the Merge in 2022.

以太坊正在进入一个新的发展阶段，以重新推动可扩展性和现实世界可用性的重新推动。这种转变始于Pectra的推出，Pectra是自2022年合并以来该网络最重要的升级。

Pectra brought several highly anticipated features, including a doubling of blob capacity for layer 2 networks, which helps reduce congestion and lower transaction fees. The upgrade also enables Account Abstraction, allowing users to pay gas fees in stablecoins such as Dai (DAI) and USD Coin (USDC).

Pectra带来了几个备受期待的功能，包括第2层网络的斑点容量增加一倍，这有助于减少拥塞并降低交易费用。该升级还可以启用帐户抽象，使用户可以在诸如DAI（DAI）和USD Coin（USDC）之类的Stablecoins支付汽油费。

Another major change is an increase in the maximum validator stake from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH, rendering node operations more efficient for institutional participants.

另一个主要变化是，最大验证器股权从32 ETH增加到2,048 ETH，使机构参与者更有效地使节点操作更有效。

With Pectra now live, developer attention has shifted to Fusaka, Ethereum’s next major protocol upgrade, which is expected by the end of 2025.

随着Pectra的现场直播，开发人员的关注已转移到以太坊的下一个主要协议升级Fusaka，这是预计到2025年底的。

A central feature of Fusaka is Peer Data Availability Sampling, or PeerDAS

Fusaka的一个主要特征是PEER数据可用性采样或PEERDAS