分析師本傑明·考恩警告說，以太坊（ETH）可能會向比特幣（BTC）“投降”

如果受歡迎的分析師本傑明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 可信的話，以太坊可能即將向比特幣「投降」。

Chart master Benjamin Cowen sees a ‘capitulation’ coming for Ethereum against Bitcoin. But why is the analyst bearish on ETH, and specifically against BTC?

圖表大師本傑明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 認為以太坊即將對比特幣「投降」。但為什麼分析師會看空 ETH，尤其是 BTC？

Ethereum versus Bitcoin

以太坊與比特幣

In a new update on Youtube, Cowen shares with his 800,000+ subscribers that Ethereum might be in trouble if the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September; that is if the trading pair follows the same price path as it did during the 2016 market cycle.

在 YouTube 上的最新更新中，Cowen 與他的 80 萬多名訂閱者分享，如果聯準會在 9 月降息，以太坊可能會遇到麻煩；也就是說，如果交易對遵循與 2016 年市場週期相同的價格路徑。

“What is very interesting about 2016 when you look at the chart is that back then the lows were hit in June, whereas this time it happened in May; about a month earlier,” the analyst points out on the chart below.

「當你查看圖表時，2016 年非常有趣的是，當時的低點是在 6 月觸及的，而這次是在 5 月；大約一個月前，」分析師在下面的圖表中指出。

It might seem a bit blurry in the chart above, but ever since Ethereum's massive spike during the 2017/2018 bull run against Bitcoin, the coin has been mostly trending down.

上圖中看起來可能有點模糊，但自從以太坊在 2017/2018 年牛市期間對比特幣的大幅飆升以來，該代幣一直呈下降趨勢。

In the end, it remains to be seen whether this downtrend can ever be turned into an uptrend. For now, Bitcoin is outperforming ETH over the longer term, which makes sense if you look at the utility of the financial assets.

最終，這種下降趨勢能否轉變為上升趨勢仍有待觀察。目前，從長期來看，比特幣的表現優於 ETH，如果你看看金融資產的效用，這是有道理的。

Bitcoin has ‘proven’ itself as a store of value, while Ethereum is still looking for a good application.

比特幣已經「證明」了自己作為一種價值儲存手段，而以太坊仍在尋找良好的應用。

What Will Ethereum Do?

以太坊會做什麼？

It's hard to say what we can expect from Ethereum in the upcoming period. Today, the Ethereum ETFs are launching in the United States.

很難說我們對以太坊在接下來的一段時間內能期待什麼。今天，以太坊 ETF 在美國推出。

These could theoretically boost the asset, but of course still don’t provide a valuable use case. For Ethereum, it is to be hoped that the funds that parties like BlackRock are now launching on the blockchain prove to be a success.

從理論上講，這些可以增加資產，但當然仍然沒有提供有價值的用例。對於以太坊來說，希望貝萊德等各方現在在區塊鏈上推出的基金能夠成功。

However, for this to happen, they must prove to be a valuable addition to existing funds. One advantage they have is that they are tradable 24/7 in principle, but in terms of efficiency, there are few advantages to be found.

然而，要做到這一點，它們必須被證明是對現有資金的有價值的補充。它們的一個優點是原則上可以24/7進行交易，但就效率而言，幾乎沒有什麼優勢。

After all, transactions on Ethereum are expensive and can be extremely costly, especially in times of stress. In that respect, the underlying technology does not seem to be built for huge amounts of transactions.

畢竟，以太坊上的交易成本高昂，而且成本可能極高，尤其是在壓力時期。在這方面，底層技術似乎不是為大量交易而建造的。

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