分析师本杰明·考恩警告说，以太坊（ETH）可能会向比特币（BTC）“投降”

如果受欢迎的分析师本杰明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 可信的话，以太坊可能即将向比特币“投降”。

Chart master Benjamin Cowen sees a ‘capitulation’ coming for Ethereum against Bitcoin. But why is the analyst bearish on ETH, and specifically against BTC?

图表大师本杰明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 认为以太坊即将对比特币“投降”。但为什么分析师看空 ETH，尤其是 BTC？

Ethereum versus Bitcoin

以太坊与比特币

In a new update on Youtube, Cowen shares with his 800,000+ subscribers that Ethereum might be in trouble if the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September; that is if the trading pair follows the same price path as it did during the 2016 market cycle.

在 YouTube 上的最新更新中，Cowen 与他的 800,000 多名订阅者分享，如果美联储在 9 月份降息，以太坊可能会遇到麻烦；也就是说，如果交易对遵循与 2016 年市场周期相同的价格路径。

“What is very interesting about 2016 when you look at the chart is that back then the lows were hit in June, whereas this time it happened in May; about a month earlier,” the analyst points out on the chart below.

“当你查看图表时，2016 年非常有趣的是，当时的低点是在 6 月份触及的，而这次是在 5 月份；大约一个月前，”分析师在下面的图表中指出。

It might seem a bit blurry in the chart above, but ever since Ethereum's massive spike during the 2017/2018 bull run against Bitcoin, the coin has been mostly trending down.

上图中看起来可能有点模糊，但自从以太坊在 2017/2018 年牛市期间对比特币的大幅飙升以来，该代币一直呈下降趋势。

In the end, it remains to be seen whether this downtrend can ever be turned into an uptrend. For now, Bitcoin is outperforming ETH over the longer term, which makes sense if you look at the utility of the financial assets.

最终，这种下降趋势能否转变为上升趋势还有待观察。目前，从长期来看，比特币的表现优于 ETH，如果你看看金融资产的效用，这是有道理的。

Bitcoin has ‘proven’ itself as a store of value, while Ethereum is still looking for a good application.

比特币已经“证明”了自己作为一种价值储存手段，而以太坊仍在寻找良好的应用。

What Will Ethereum Do?

以太坊会做什么？

It's hard to say what we can expect from Ethereum in the upcoming period. Today, the Ethereum ETFs are launching in the United States.

很难说我们对以太坊在接下来的一段时间内能期待什么。今天，以太坊 ETF 在美国推出。

These could theoretically boost the asset, but of course still don’t provide a valuable use case. For Ethereum, it is to be hoped that the funds that parties like BlackRock are now launching on the blockchain prove to be a success.

从理论上讲，这些可以增加资产，但当然仍然不能提供有价值的用例。对于以太坊来说，希望贝莱德等各方现在在区块链上推出的基金能够取得成功。

However, for this to happen, they must prove to be a valuable addition to existing funds. One advantage they have is that they are tradable 24/7 in principle, but in terms of efficiency, there are few advantages to be found.

然而，要做到这一点，它们必须被证明是对现有资金的有价值的补充。它们的一个优点是原则上可以24/7进行交易，但就效率而言，几乎没有什么优势。

After all, transactions on Ethereum are expensive and can be extremely costly, especially in times of stress. In that respect, the underlying technology does not seem to be built for huge amounts of transactions.

毕竟，以太坊上的交易成本高昂，而且成本可能极高，尤其是在压力时期。在这方面，底层技术似乎并不是为大量交易而构建的。

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