以太坊現貨 ETF 將在前 18 個月吸引 15B 美元的淨流入：Bitwise

報告稱，投資者可能會根據比特幣和以太坊的相對市值按比例將資金分配給 ETF。

(Bloomberg) -- Ether (ETH) spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which are expected to be approved for trading in the U.S. in coming months, are likely to attract $15 billion of net inflows in their first 18 months, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan wrote in a report on Monday.

(彭博社)—Bitwise Chief 預計，以太坊 (ETH) 現貨交易所交易基金 (ETF) 預計將在未來幾個月內獲准在美國交易，在前 18 個月內可能會吸引 150 億美元的淨流入投資官馬特霍根(Matt Hougan)週一在一份報告中寫道。

One way to estimate potential inflows is to consider the relative market caps of bitcoin (BTC) and ether, the report said. Bitcoin is currently 74% of the combined market value, the report noted. Investors will probably allocate to bitcoin and ether ETFs in the same proportions.

報告稱，估計潛在資金流入的一種方法是考慮比特幣（BTC）和以太坊的相對市值。報告指出，比特幣目前佔總市值的 74%。投資者可能會以相同的比例配置比特幣和以太幣 ETF。

U.S. investors have invested $56 billion in spot bitcoin ETFs since their introduction in January, a number that is expected to grow to $100 billion or more by the end of 2025 as large wirehouses approve the products for trading on their platforms, the asset manager said.

該資產管理公司表示，自1 月推出現貨比特幣ETF 以來，美國投資者已投資560 億美元，隨著大型電線公司批准這些產品在其平台上進行交易，預計到2025 年底，這一數字將增至1000 億美元或更多。

“Using this $100 billion figure as a reference, spot ether ETPs would need to attract $35 billion in assets to reach parity, a process I expect will take about 18 months,” Hougan wrote.

「以這個 1000 億美元的數字作為參考，現貨以太 ETP 需要吸引 350 億美元的資產才能達到平價，我預計這個過程將需要大約 18 個月的時間，」Hougan 寫道。

The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), with $10 billion in assets under management (AUM), is expected to convert to a spot ETF, leaving $25 billion of inflows to reach parity.

管理資產 (AUM) 為 100 億美元的灰階以太坊信託 (ETHE) 預計將轉換為現貨 ETF，留下 250 億美元的資金流入以達到平價。

In Canada, however, ether ETPs account for only 22%-23% of total AUM “slightly underperforming their absolute market cap weight,” the report noted. The discrepancy can be linked to bitcoin’s first-mover advantage, Hougan wrote.

然而，報告指出，在加拿大，以太坊 ETP 僅佔總資產管理規模的 22%-23%，「表現略低於其絕對市值權重」。霍根寫道，這種差異可能與比特幣的先發優勢有關。

“Some investors may have bought a bitcoin ETP and stopped there, thinking their crypto exposure was covered,” the report said, adding that this dynamic may be true in the U.S. also. Assuming ether ETFs only capture 22% of the market, as in Canada, cuts the estimate of net new inflows to $18 billion, and other factors chop off another $3 billion.

報告指出：「一些投資者可能已經購買了比特幣 ETP，然後就停了下來，認為他們的加密貨幣風險已經得到了保障。」並補充說，這種情況在美國也可能是正確的。假設以太坊 ETF 僅佔 22% 的市場份額（如在加拿大），則將新淨流入額預估削減至 180 億美元，而其他因素又削減了 30 億美元。

Read more: Ether Spot ETFs Could See Lower Demand Compared to Bitcoin Peers: Bernstein

閱讀更多：伯恩斯坦：與比特幣同行相比，以太幣現貨 ETF 的需求可能較低

The report also noted that ether ETFs are likely to face competition from bitcoin ETFs, which offer a lower expense ratio and may be seen as a more efficient way to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency market. Additionally, the approval of bitcoin futures ETFs in 2021 may have satisfied some investors' demand for crypto-related ETFs.

該報告還指出，以太幣 ETF 可能面臨來自比特幣 ETF 的競爭，比特幣 ETF 的費用比率較低，可能被視為進入加密貨幣市場的更有效方式。此外，2021年比特幣期貨ETF的批准可能滿足了部分投資者對加密貨幣相關ETF的需求。

Despite these challenges, Hougan remains optimistic about the prospects for ether spot ETFs, highlighting the growing institutional interest in ether and the potential for increased demand as more investors become aware of the asset.

儘管面臨這些挑戰，Hougan 對以太坊現貨 ETF 的前景仍然持樂觀態度，強調機構對以太坊的興趣不斷增長，並且隨著更多投資者意識到該資產，需求可能會增加。

The approval of ether spot ETFs is widely anticipated by the crypto industry and investors, as it would mark a significant step in the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies in the U.S. Several applications for ether spot ETFs have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and a decision is expected in the coming months.

以太坊現貨 ETF 的批准受到加密行業和投資者的廣泛期待，因為這將標誌著美國加密貨幣監管環境邁出重要一步。預計將在未來幾個月內做出決定。