以太坊现货 ETF 将在前 18 个月吸引 15B 美元的净流入：Bitwise

报告称，投资者可能会根据比特币和以太坊的相对市值按比例将资金分配给 ETF。

(Bloomberg) -- Ether (ETH) spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which are expected to be approved for trading in the U.S. in coming months, are likely to attract $15 billion of net inflows in their first 18 months, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan wrote in a report on Monday.

(彭博社)——Bitwise Chief 预计，以太坊 (ETH) 现货交易所交易基金 (ETF) 预计将在未来几个月内获准在美国交易，在前 18 个月内可能会吸引 150 亿美元的净流入投资官马特·霍根(Matt Hougan)周一在一份报告中写道。

One way to estimate potential inflows is to consider the relative market caps of bitcoin (BTC) and ether, the report said. Bitcoin is currently 74% of the combined market value, the report noted. Investors will probably allocate to bitcoin and ether ETFs in the same proportions.

报告称，估计潜在资金流入的一种方法是考虑比特币（BTC）和以太坊的相对市值。报告指出，比特币目前占总市值的 74%。投资者可能会以相同的比例配置比特币和以太币 ETF。

U.S. investors have invested $56 billion in spot bitcoin ETFs since their introduction in January, a number that is expected to grow to $100 billion or more by the end of 2025 as large wirehouses approve the products for trading on their platforms, the asset manager said.

该资产管理公司表示，自 1 月份推出现货比特币 ETF 以来，美国投资者已投资 560 亿美元，随着大型电线公司批准这些产品在其平台上进行交易，预计到 2025 年底，这一数字将增至 1000 亿美元或更多。

“Using this $100 billion figure as a reference, spot ether ETPs would need to attract $35 billion in assets to reach parity, a process I expect will take about 18 months,” Hougan wrote.

“以这个 1000 亿美元的数字作为参考，现货以太 ETP 需要吸引 350 亿美元的资产才能达到平价，我预计这个过程将需要大约 18 个月的时间，”Hougan 写道。

The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), with $10 billion in assets under management (AUM), is expected to convert to a spot ETF, leaving $25 billion of inflows to reach parity.

管理资产 (AUM) 为 100 亿美元的灰度以太坊信托 (ETHE) 预计将转换为现货 ETF，留下 250 亿美元的资金流入以达到平价。

In Canada, however, ether ETPs account for only 22%-23% of total AUM “slightly underperforming their absolute market cap weight,” the report noted. The discrepancy can be linked to bitcoin’s first-mover advantage, Hougan wrote.

然而，报告指出，在加拿大，以太坊 ETP 仅占总资产管理规模的 22%-23%，“表现略低于其绝对市值权重”。霍根写道，这种差异可能与比特币的先发优势有关。

“Some investors may have bought a bitcoin ETP and stopped there, thinking their crypto exposure was covered,” the report said, adding that this dynamic may be true in the U.S. also. Assuming ether ETFs only capture 22% of the market, as in Canada, cuts the estimate of net new inflows to $18 billion, and other factors chop off another $3 billion.

报告称：“一些投资者可能已经购买了比特币 ETP，然后就停下来了，认为他们的加密货币风险已经得到了保障。”并补充说，这种情况在美国也可能是正确的。假设以太坊 ETF 仅占据 22% 的市场份额（如在加拿大），则将净新流入额预估削减至 180 亿美元，而其他因素又削减了 30 亿美元。

Read more: Ether Spot ETFs Could See Lower Demand Compared to Bitcoin Peers: Bernstein

阅读更多：伯恩斯坦：与比特币同行相比，以太币现货 ETF 的需求可能较低

The report also noted that ether ETFs are likely to face competition from bitcoin ETFs, which offer a lower expense ratio and may be seen as a more efficient way to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency market. Additionally, the approval of bitcoin futures ETFs in 2021 may have satisfied some investors' demand for crypto-related ETFs.

该报告还指出，以太坊 ETF 可能面临来自比特币 ETF 的竞争，比特币 ETF 的费用比率较低，可能被视为进入加密货币市场的更有效方式。此外，2021年比特币期货ETF的批准可能满足了部分投资者对加密货币相关ETF的需求。

Despite these challenges, Hougan remains optimistic about the prospects for ether spot ETFs, highlighting the growing institutional interest in ether and the potential for increased demand as more investors become aware of the asset.

尽管面临这些挑战，Hougan 对以太坊现货 ETF 的前景仍然持乐观态度，强调机构对以太坊的兴趣不断增长，并且随着更多投资者意识到该资产，需求可能会增加。

The approval of ether spot ETFs is widely anticipated by the crypto industry and investors, as it would mark a significant step in the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies in the U.S. Several applications for ether spot ETFs have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and a decision is expected in the coming months.

以太坊现货 ETF 的批准受到加密行业和投资者的广泛期待，因为这将标志着美国加密货币监管环境迈出重要一步。 以太坊现货 ETF 的几项申请已向美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 提交，预计将在未来几个月内做出决定。