一年內對現貨Altcoin ETF的市場期望發生巨大變化

ETF商店總裁內特·格拉西（Nate Geraci）強調了對現貨加密ETF的戲劇性市場期望在一年內發生了什麼變化。

Nate Geraci, President of ETF Store, highlighted how dramatically market expectations for spot crypto ETFs have shifted within a year.

ETF Store總裁Nate Geraci強調了對現貨加密ETF的市場期望在一年內發生了什麼變化。

In a tweet today, Geraci pointed out that there was no spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) for Ethereum just a year ago. At the time, several asset managers had filed to launch spot Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. However, the SEC, under the leadership of Gary Gensler, was reluctant to approve any of the applications.

Geraci在今天的一條推文中指出，一年前，沒有現場交換基金（ETF）。當時，幾位資產經理已申請在美國推出以太坊ETF，但是，在加里·金斯勒（Gary Gensler）的領導下，SEC不願批准任何申請。

"Everyone said no chance for ETH spot ETFs. Now the question is which altcoins will get approved 1st. Funny how things change in a year," Geraci said.

Geraci說：“每個人都沒有對Eth spot ETFS表示任何機會。現在的問題是，哪些Altcoins將獲得批准。有趣的是，一年中情況如何變化。”

Everyone said no chance for ETH spot ETFs. Now the question is which altcoins will get approved 1st. Funny how things change in a year.

每個人都沒有說ETH ETF的機會。現在的問題是哪些AltCoins將獲得批准的第一名。有趣的是，一年中的情況如何變化。

No one expected any of the 9 Ethereum ETFs to get approved after the SEC signaled it saw ETH as a security during its investigation of ConsenSys. If the SEC had successfully given ETH the securities tag, it may not have approved an ETF for the coin.

在SEC指示其在調查協議期間將ETH視為安全性後，沒有人期望9個以太坊ETF中的任何人都將獲得批准。如果SEC成功地將ETH給出了證券標籤，則可能未批准硬幣的ETF。

But the SEC’s approach changed by mid-May 2024, as the regulator actively engaged with the applications. It subsequently approved nine spot Ethereum ETFs from multiple asset managers on May 23, 2024.

但是，隨著監管機構積極參與申請，SEC的方法在2024年5月中旬發生了變化。隨後，它於2024年5月23日批准了來自多個資產經理的九個以太坊ETF。

The industry consensus is that the SEC would also approve the launch of multiple ETFs tied to blue-chip altcoins like XRP, SOL, DOGE, and LTC this year. This marks a major shift from the industry’s expectations a year ago, before spot Ethereum ETFs went live. So far, several asset managers have applied with the U.S. SEC to launch spot ETFs exclusively tied to these altcoins.

該行業共識是，SEC還將批准與今年XRP，SOL，DOGE和LTC（例如XRP，SOL，DOGE和LTC）相關的多個ETF的發布。這標誌著一年前該行業期望的重大轉變，直到現場以太坊ETF才能上線。到目前為止，幾位資產經理已向美國SEC申請，以啟動與這些AltCoins僅綁定的現貨ETF。

Major Shift in Market Expectations for Altcoin ETFs

市場對Altcoin ETF的期望發生重大變化

After several asset managers filed for the approval of spot Litecoin, Solana, and other altcoin ETFs earlier this year, the SEC refrained from engaging with the applications, which led to the prospective issuers pulling their filings.

在今年早些時候申請了幾家資產經理申請批准現場萊特幣，Solana和其他Altcoin ETF之後，SEC避免參與申請，這導致了潛在的發行人提交文件。

Now, under the new SEC leadership, the industry consensus is that the regulator would approve the launch of multiple ETFs tied to blue-chip altcoins like XRP, SOL, DOGE, and LTC this year.

現在，在新的SEC領導下，該行業共識是監管機構將批准與XRP，SOL，DOGE和LTC等藍籌股山脈相關的多個ETF的發布。

This marks a major shift from the industry’s expectations a year ago, before spot Ethereum ETFs went live. So far, several asset managers have applied with the U.S. SEC to launch spot ETFs exclusively tied to these altcoins.

這標誌著一年前該行業期望的重大轉變，直到現場以太坊ETF才能上線。到目前為止，幾位資產經理已向美國SEC申請，以啟動與這些AltCoins僅綁定的現貨ETF。

Latest Approval Odds for XRP, DOGE, LTC, and SOL ETFs

XRP，Doge，LTC和SOL ETF的最新批准賠率

Recent data from Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shows that the possibility of these altcoin ETFs launching before the end of 2025 has increased drastically since February.

彭博ETF分析師Eric Balchunas的最新數據表明，這些山寨幣ETF在2025年底之前啟動的可能性自2月以來急劇增加。

Per the latest data, Litecoin and Solana ETFs have the highest odds of launching this year, with each having a 90% chance. The odds of Litecoin ETFs have remained unchanged since February. However, the approval probability for Solana ETF spiked from 70% to 90% within two months.

根據最新數據，Litecoin和Solana ETF的發射機率最高，每個人的機會都有90％的機會。自2月以來，Litecoin ETF的機率一直保持不變。然而，在兩個月內，SOLANA ETF的批准概率從70％升至90％。

Similarly, XRP ETFs’ approval probability also skyrocketed to 85% in the latest data, up from 65% recorded earlier this year. For Dogecoin ETFs, the probability of these funds launching in 2025 currently stands at 80%, marking an increase from 75% in February.

同樣，在最新數據中，XRP ETF的批准概率也飆升至85％，高於今年早些時候記錄的65％。對於Dogecoin ETF，這些資金在2025年推出的可能性目前為80％，標誌著2月份的75％增加。

This optimism stems from the SEC’s view of each altcoin as a commodity rather than a security. The altcoins also have separate CFTC-regulated futures products trading in the market.

這種樂觀源於美國證券交易委員會（SEC）將每個山寨幣視為商品而不是安全性的觀點。 AltCoins在市場上還具有單獨的CFTC調節期貨產品交易。

Final Deadline

最後截止日期

The data also notes that the SEC must approve or disapprove these altcoin ETFs in Q4 2025, specifically by October 2025.

數據還指出，SEC必須在第4季度2025年第4季度批准或不贊成這些Altcoin ETF，特別是到2025年10月。

The final decision deadline for Litecoin ETFs is October 2, 2025. On the other hand, the Bloomberg data highlights October 10 as the final deadline for the SEC decision on Solana ETFs. XRP and Dogecoin ETFs have the same decision deadline of October 17, 2025.

Litecoin ETF的最終決定截止日期是2025年10月2日。另一方面，彭博數據將10月10日作為SEC決定Solana ETF的最終截止日期。 XRP和Dogecoin ETF的決定截止日期為2025年10月17日。

DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.

Disclamier：此內容是信息的，不應被視為財務建議。本文中表達的觀點可能包括作者的個人意見，並且不反映加密基本意見。鼓勵讀者在做出任何投資決策之前進行徹底的研究。加密基礎對任何財務損失概不負責。