一年内对现货Altcoin ETF的市场期望发生巨大变化

ETF商店总裁内特·格拉西（Nate Geraci）强调了对现货加密ETF的戏剧性市场期望在一年内发生了什么变化。

Nate Geraci, President of ETF Store, highlighted how dramatically market expectations for spot crypto ETFs have shifted within a year.

ETF Store总裁Nate Geraci强调了对现货加密ETF的市场期望在一年内发生了什么变化。

In a tweet today, Geraci pointed out that there was no spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) for Ethereum just a year ago. At the time, several asset managers had filed to launch spot Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. However, the SEC, under the leadership of Gary Gensler, was reluctant to approve any of the applications.

Geraci在今天的一条推文中指出，一年前，没有现场交换基金（ETF）。当时，几位资产经理已申请在美国推出以太坊ETF，但是，在加里·金斯勒（Gary Gensler）的领导下，SEC不愿批准任何申请。

"Everyone said no chance for ETH spot ETFs. Now the question is which altcoins will get approved 1st. Funny how things change in a year," Geraci said.

Geraci说：“每个人都没有对Eth spot ETFS表示任何机会。现在的问题是，哪些Altcoins将获得批准。有趣的是，一年中情况如何变化。”

Everyone said no chance for ETH spot ETFs. Now the question is which altcoins will get approved 1st. Funny how things change in a year.

每个人都没有说ETH ETF的机会。现在的问题是哪些AltCoins将获得批准的第一名。有趣的是，一年中的情况如何变化。

No one expected any of the 9 Ethereum ETFs to get approved after the SEC signaled it saw ETH as a security during its investigation of ConsenSys. If the SEC had successfully given ETH the securities tag, it may not have approved an ETF for the coin.

在SEC指示其在调查协议期间将ETH视为安全性后，没有人期望9个以太坊ETF中的任何人都将获得批准。如果SEC成功地将ETH给出了证券标签，则可能未批准硬币的ETF。

But the SEC’s approach changed by mid-May 2024, as the regulator actively engaged with the applications. It subsequently approved nine spot Ethereum ETFs from multiple asset managers on May 23, 2024.

但是，随着监管机构积极参与申请，SEC的方法在2024年5月中旬发生了变化。随后，它于2024年5月23日批准了来自多个资产经理的九个以太坊ETF。

The industry consensus is that the SEC would also approve the launch of multiple ETFs tied to blue-chip altcoins like XRP, SOL, DOGE, and LTC this year. This marks a major shift from the industry’s expectations a year ago, before spot Ethereum ETFs went live. So far, several asset managers have applied with the U.S. SEC to launch spot ETFs exclusively tied to these altcoins.

该行业共识是，SEC还将批准与今年XRP，SOL，DOGE和LTC（例如XRP，SOL，DOGE和LTC）相关的多个ETF的发布。这标志着一年前该行业期望的重大转变，直到现场以太坊ETF才能上线。到目前为止，几位资产经理已向美国SEC申请，以启动与这些AltCoins仅绑定的现货ETF。

Major Shift in Market Expectations for Altcoin ETFs

市场对Altcoin ETF的期望发生重大变化

After several asset managers filed for the approval of spot Litecoin, Solana, and other altcoin ETFs earlier this year, the SEC refrained from engaging with the applications, which led to the prospective issuers pulling their filings.

在今年早些时候申请了几家资产经理申请批准现场莱特币，Solana和其他Altcoin ETF之后，SEC避免参与申请，这导致了潜在的发行人提交文件。

Now, under the new SEC leadership, the industry consensus is that the regulator would approve the launch of multiple ETFs tied to blue-chip altcoins like XRP, SOL, DOGE, and LTC this year.

现在，在新的SEC领导下，该行业共识是监管机构将批准与XRP，SOL，DOGE和LTC等蓝筹股山脉相关的多个ETF的发布。

This marks a major shift from the industry’s expectations a year ago, before spot Ethereum ETFs went live. So far, several asset managers have applied with the U.S. SEC to launch spot ETFs exclusively tied to these altcoins.

这标志着一年前该行业期望的重大转变，直到现场以太坊ETF才能上线。到目前为止，几位资产经理已向美国SEC申请，以启动与这些AltCoins仅绑定的现货ETF。

Latest Approval Odds for XRP, DOGE, LTC, and SOL ETFs

XRP，Doge，LTC和SOL ETF的最新批准赔率

Recent data from Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shows that the possibility of these altcoin ETFs launching before the end of 2025 has increased drastically since February.

彭博ETF分析师Eric Balchunas的最新数据表明，这些山寨币ETF在2025年底之前启动的可能性自2月以来急剧增加。

Per the latest data, Litecoin and Solana ETFs have the highest odds of launching this year, with each having a 90% chance. The odds of Litecoin ETFs have remained unchanged since February. However, the approval probability for Solana ETF spiked from 70% to 90% within two months.

根据最新数据，Litecoin和Solana ETF的发射几率最高，每个人的机会都有90％的机会。自2月以来，Litecoin ETF的几率一直保持不变。然而，在两个月内，SOLANA ETF的批准概率从70％升至90％。

Similarly, XRP ETFs’ approval probability also skyrocketed to 85% in the latest data, up from 65% recorded earlier this year. For Dogecoin ETFs, the probability of these funds launching in 2025 currently stands at 80%, marking an increase from 75% in February.

同样，在最新数据中，XRP ETF的批准概率也飙升至85％，高于今年早些时候记录的65％。对于Dogecoin ETF，这些资金在2025年推出的可能性目前为80％，标志着2月份的75％增加。

This optimism stems from the SEC’s view of each altcoin as a commodity rather than a security. The altcoins also have separate CFTC-regulated futures products trading in the market.

这种乐观源于美国证券交易委员会（SEC）将每个山寨币视为商品而不是安全性的观点。 AltCoins在市场上还具有单独的CFTC调节期货产品交易。

Final Deadline

最后截止日期

The data also notes that the SEC must approve or disapprove these altcoin ETFs in Q4 2025, specifically by October 2025.

数据还指出，SEC必须在第4季度2025年第4季度批准或不赞成这些Altcoin ETF，特别是到2025年10月。

The final decision deadline for Litecoin ETFs is October 2, 2025. On the other hand, the Bloomberg data highlights October 10 as the final deadline for the SEC decision on Solana ETFs. XRP and Dogecoin ETFs have the same decision deadline of October 17, 2025.

Litecoin ETF的最终决定截止日期是2025年10月2日。另一方面，彭博数据将10月10日作为SEC决定Solana ETF的最终截止日期。 XRP和Dogecoin ETF的决定截止日期为2025年10月17日。

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Disclamier：此内容是信息的，不应被视为财务建议。本文中表达的观点可能包括作者的个人意见，并且不反映加密基本意见。鼓励读者在做出任何投资决策之前进行彻底的研究。加密基础对任何财务损失概不负责。