Dramatic Shift in Market Expectations for Spot Altcoin ETFs Within a Year

Nate Geraci, President of ETF Store, highlighted how dramatically market expectations for spot crypto ETFs have shifted within a year.

In a tweet today, Geraci pointed out that there was no spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) for Ethereum just a year ago. At the time, several asset managers had filed to launch spot Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. However, the SEC, under the leadership of Gary Gensler, was reluctant to approve any of the applications.

"Everyone said no chance for ETH spot ETFs. Now the question is which altcoins will get approved 1st. Funny how things change in a year," Geraci said.

Everyone said no chance for ETH spot ETFs. Now the question is which altcoins will get approved 1st. Funny how things change in a year.

No one expected any of the 9 Ethereum ETFs to get approved after the SEC signaled it saw ETH as a security during its investigation of ConsenSys. If the SEC had successfully given ETH the securities tag, it may not have approved an ETF for the coin.

But the SEC’s approach changed by mid-May 2024, as the regulator actively engaged with the applications. It subsequently approved nine spot Ethereum ETFs from multiple asset managers on May 23, 2024.

The industry consensus is that the SEC would also approve the launch of multiple ETFs tied to blue-chip altcoins like XRP, SOL, DOGE, and LTC this year. This marks a major shift from the industry’s expectations a year ago, before spot Ethereum ETFs went live. So far, several asset managers have applied with the U.S. SEC to launch spot ETFs exclusively tied to these altcoins.

Major Shift in Market Expectations for Altcoin ETFs

After several asset managers filed for the approval of spot Litecoin, Solana, and other altcoin ETFs earlier this year, the SEC refrained from engaging with the applications, which led to the prospective issuers pulling their filings.

Now, under the new SEC leadership, the industry consensus is that the regulator would approve the launch of multiple ETFs tied to blue-chip altcoins like XRP, SOL, DOGE, and LTC this year.

This marks a major shift from the industry’s expectations a year ago, before spot Ethereum ETFs went live. So far, several asset managers have applied with the U.S. SEC to launch spot ETFs exclusively tied to these altcoins.

Latest Approval Odds for XRP, DOGE, LTC, and SOL ETFs

Recent data from Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shows that the possibility of these altcoin ETFs launching before the end of 2025 has increased drastically since February.

Per the latest data, Litecoin and Solana ETFs have the highest odds of launching this year, with each having a 90% chance. The odds of Litecoin ETFs have remained unchanged since February. However, the approval probability for Solana ETF spiked from 70% to 90% within two months.

Similarly, XRP ETFs’ approval probability also skyrocketed to 85% in the latest data, up from 65% recorded earlier this year. For Dogecoin ETFs, the probability of these funds launching in 2025 currently stands at 80%, marking an increase from 75% in February.

This optimism stems from the SEC’s view of each altcoin as a commodity rather than a security. The altcoins also have separate CFTC-regulated futures products trading in the market.

Final Deadline

The data also notes that the SEC must approve or disapprove these altcoin ETFs in Q4 2025, specifically by October 2025.

The final decision deadline for Litecoin ETFs is October 2, 2025. On the other hand, the Bloomberg data highlights October 10 as the final deadline for the SEC decision on Solana ETFs. XRP and Dogecoin ETFs have the same decision deadline of October 17, 2025.

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