狗狗幣能達到 1 美元嗎？

按照典型的方式，對於狗狗幣（加密貨幣：DOGE）來說，今年是極度動盪的一年。雖然加密貨幣市場整體價值上漲了 20%，目前價值 2 兆美元，但以狗為主題的代幣在 2024 年僅上漲了 5%（截至 8 月 6 日）。

Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) has had a wild ride in 2024, but not in a good way. While the cryptocurrency market has surged 20% to be worth $2 trillion, the dog-themed token is up just 5% in 2024 (as of Aug. 6). Dogecoin trades a gut-wrenching 86% off its peak price of under $0.74 in 2021.

狗狗幣（加密貨幣：DOGE）在 2024 年經歷了一段瘋狂的旅程，但進展並不順利。儘管加密貨幣市場已飆升 20%，價值 2 兆美元，但以狗為主題的代幣在 2024 年僅上漲 5%（截至 8 月 6 日）。狗狗幣的交易價格較 2021 年低於 0.74 美元的峰值價格下跌了 86%。

But can this cryptocurrency skyrocket more than tenfold from today's price to one day reach the psychologically important $1 mark?

但這種加密貨幣能否從今天的價格飆升十倍以上，有一天達到心理上重要的 1 美元大關呢？

The Dogecoin roller coaster

狗狗幣雲霄飛車

Dogecoin hit its record price in May 2021, during the time when meme stock mania took over the stock market. That enthusiasm led to bullish activity in the crypto industry as well. As one of the most speculative tokens out there, Dogecoin benefited tremendously.

狗狗幣於 2021 年 5 月創下歷史新高，當時正是迷因股票狂熱席捲股市的時期。這種熱情也引發了加密貨幣產業的看漲活動。作為最具投機性的代幣之一，狗狗幣受益匪淺。

But in the crypto market, what quickly goes up usually comes down rapidly as well. That's what happens when a particular token's price is driven more by speculative behavior than by any sort of fundamentals.

但在加密貨幣市場，快速上漲的通常也會快速下跌。當特定代幣的價格更多地受到投機行為而非任何基本面驅動時，就會發生這種情況。

For example, Dogecoin's price has gained anytime one of its well-known supporters, Tesla founder and CEO Elon Musk, talks about it publicly. There is hope that the social media platform the tech mogul owns, X (formerly known as Twitter), could integrate Dogecoin as a potential payment facilitator.

例如，每當其知名支持者、特斯拉創辦人兼執行長馬斯克公開談論狗狗幣時，狗狗幣的價格就會上漲。這位科技大亨擁有的社群媒體平台 X（以前稱為 Twitter）有望將狗狗幣整合為潛在的支付服務商。

However, any excitement is usually short-lived. This has happened in 2024, too. From the start of this year to March 29, Dogecoin soared 144%. Since then, it's down 57%. I don't think there's any reason to believe this kind of boom-and-bust price action is going to change. And that makes it difficult for someone to invest.

然而，任何興奮通常都是短暫的。這也發生在 2024 年。今年年初到3月29日，狗狗幣暴漲144%。從那時起，它下降了 57%。我認為沒有任何理由相信這種繁榮與蕭條的價格走勢將會改變。這使得人們很難進行投資。

Focus on the fundamentals

專注於基礎知識

What would it take for Dogecoin to rise tenfold to reach $1? It's actually a simple answer. There needs to be strong demand for people to want to own Dogecoin in their portfolios. I'm not sure if this will happen in a meaningful way.

狗狗幣需要什麼才能上漲十倍才能達到 1 美元？這其實是一個簡單的答案。人們需要有強烈的需求才能在他們的投資組合中擁有狗狗幣。我不確定這是否會以有意義的方式發生。

Dogecoin was created to be a lighthearted rival to Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). Dogecoin aims to be a payment network, and it also runs a proof-of-work consensus protocol. But that's where the similarities probably end.

狗狗幣的誕生是為了成為比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）的輕鬆競爭對手。狗狗幣的目標是成為支付網絡，它也運行一個工作量證明共識協議。但相似之處可能就到此為止了。

Bitcoin has become a legitimate financial asset over the years. Investors find immense value in its decentralized nature and fixed supply cap. Bitcoin is not only taking on gold as a popular store of value, but the network is a competitor to the current monetary system.

多年來，比特幣已成為一種合法的金融資產。投資者發現其去中心化性質和固定供應上限具有巨大價值。比特幣不僅將黃金作為一種流行的價值儲存手段，而且該網路也是當前貨幣體系的競爭對手。

On the other hand, there are currently 145 billion Dogecoin tokens in circulation. That figure expands by 10,000 every single minute, and there is no upper limit. This couldn't be further from Bitcoin's level of scarcity. In fact, Dogecoin's abundant supply makes it hard for the price to significantly rise.

另一方面，目前有 1450 億個狗狗幣代幣正在流通。這個數字每分鐘擴大一萬，而且沒有上限。這與比特幣的稀缺程度相差甚遠。事實上，狗狗幣的供應充足，導致其價格很難大幅上漲。

The community support that Dogecoin has been able to attract is admirable. Right now, it's the ninth-most-valuable blockchain network, with a market cap of $14 billion.

狗狗幣能夠吸引到的社群支持令人欽佩。目前，它是第九大最有價值的區塊鏈網絡，市值為 140 億美元。

However, I believe it has virtually no utility. And it doesn't have that many developers working on advancing the network. This doesn't bode well for its long-term viability. Eventually, the market might start to question if Dogecoin should even exist.

然而，我認為它實際上沒有任何用處。而且沒有那麼多開發人員致力於推進網路。這對其長期生存能力來說並不是一個好兆頭。最終，市場可能會開始質疑狗狗幣是否應該存在。

For someone looking to invest their hard-earned savings into an asset, there are many better choices. Digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum could satisfy your crypto allocation. There are even growth tech stocks that could provide a better alternative for investors who are comfortable taking on more risk in the equity markets.

對於想要將辛苦賺來的儲蓄投資於資產的人來說，有許多更好的選擇。比特幣和以太幣等數位資產可以滿足您的加密貨幣配置。甚至還有一些成長型科技股可以為願意在股市承擔更多風險的投資人提供更好的選擇。

Not only do I view Dogecoin as an investment you're better off not making, I don't see its price ever getting to $1 per token.

我不僅認為狗狗幣是一種最好不要進行的投資，而且我認為它的價格永遠不會達到每個代幣 1 美元。