狗狗币能达到 1 美元吗？

按照典型的方式，对于狗狗币（加密货币：DOGE）来说，今年是极其动荡的一年。虽然加密货币市场整体价值上涨了 20%，目前价值 2 万亿美元，但以狗为主题的代币在 2024 年仅上涨了 5%（截至 8 月 6 日）。

Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) has had a wild ride in 2024, but not in a good way. While the cryptocurrency market has surged 20% to be worth $2 trillion, the dog-themed token is up just 5% in 2024 (as of Aug. 6). Dogecoin trades a gut-wrenching 86% off its peak price of under $0.74 in 2021.

狗狗币（加密货币：DOGE）在 2024 年经历了一段疯狂的旅程，但进展并不顺利。尽管加密货币市场已飙升 20%，价值 2 万亿美元，但以狗为主题的代币在 2024 年仅上涨 5%（截至 8 月 6 日）。狗狗币的交易价格较 2021 年低于 0.74 美元的峰值价格下跌了 86%。

But can this cryptocurrency skyrocket more than tenfold from today's price to one day reach the psychologically important $1 mark?

但这种加密货币能否从今天的价格飙升十倍以上，有一天达到心理上重要的 1 美元大关呢？

The Dogecoin roller coaster

狗狗币过山车

Dogecoin hit its record price in May 2021, during the time when meme stock mania took over the stock market. That enthusiasm led to bullish activity in the crypto industry as well. As one of the most speculative tokens out there, Dogecoin benefited tremendously.

狗狗币于 2021 年 5 月创下历史新高，当时正是迷因股票狂热席卷股市的时期。这种热情也引发了加密货币行业的看涨活动。作为最具投机性的代币之一，狗狗币受益匪浅。

But in the crypto market, what quickly goes up usually comes down rapidly as well. That's what happens when a particular token's price is driven more by speculative behavior than by any sort of fundamentals.

但在加密货币市场，快速上涨的通常也会快速下跌。当特定代币的价格更多地受到投机行为而非任何基本面驱动时，就会发生这种情况。

For example, Dogecoin's price has gained anytime one of its well-known supporters, Tesla founder and CEO Elon Musk, talks about it publicly. There is hope that the social media platform the tech mogul owns, X (formerly known as Twitter), could integrate Dogecoin as a potential payment facilitator.

例如，每当其知名支持者、特斯拉创始人兼首席执行官埃隆·马斯克公开谈论狗狗币时，狗狗币的价格就会上涨。这位科技大亨拥有的社交媒体平台 X（以前称为 Twitter）有望将狗狗币整合为潜在的支付服务商。

However, any excitement is usually short-lived. This has happened in 2024, too. From the start of this year to March 29, Dogecoin soared 144%. Since then, it's down 57%. I don't think there's any reason to believe this kind of boom-and-bust price action is going to change. And that makes it difficult for someone to invest.

然而，任何兴奋通常都是短暂的。这也发生在 2024 年。从今年年初到3月29日，狗狗币暴涨144%。从那时起，它下降了 57%。我认为没有任何理由相信这种繁荣与萧条的价格走势将会改变。这使得人们很难进行投资。

Focus on the fundamentals

专注于基础知识

What would it take for Dogecoin to rise tenfold to reach $1? It's actually a simple answer. There needs to be strong demand for people to want to own Dogecoin in their portfolios. I'm not sure if this will happen in a meaningful way.

狗狗币需要什么才能上涨十倍才能达到 1 美元？这实际上是一个简单的答案。人们需要有强烈的需求才能在他们的投资组合中拥有狗狗币。我不确定这是否会以有意义的方式发生。

Dogecoin was created to be a lighthearted rival to Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). Dogecoin aims to be a payment network, and it also runs a proof-of-work consensus protocol. But that's where the similarities probably end.

狗狗币的诞生是为了成为比特币（加密货币：BTC）的轻松竞争对手。狗狗币的目标是成为一个支付网络，它还运行一个工作量证明共识协议。但相似之处可能就到此为止了。

Bitcoin has become a legitimate financial asset over the years. Investors find immense value in its decentralized nature and fixed supply cap. Bitcoin is not only taking on gold as a popular store of value, but the network is a competitor to the current monetary system.

多年来，比特币已成为一种合法的金融资产。投资者发现其去中心化性质和固定供应上限具有巨大价值。比特币不仅将黄金作为一种流行的价值储存手段，而且该网络也是当前货币体系的竞争对手。

On the other hand, there are currently 145 billion Dogecoin tokens in circulation. That figure expands by 10,000 every single minute, and there is no upper limit. This couldn't be further from Bitcoin's level of scarcity. In fact, Dogecoin's abundant supply makes it hard for the price to significantly rise.

另一方面，目前有 1450 亿个狗狗币代币在流通。这个数字每分钟扩大一万，而且没有上限。这与比特币的稀缺程度相差甚远。事实上，狗狗币的供应充足，导致其价格很难大幅上涨。

The community support that Dogecoin has been able to attract is admirable. Right now, it's the ninth-most-valuable blockchain network, with a market cap of $14 billion.

狗狗币能够吸引到的社区支持令人钦佩。目前，它是第九大最有价值的区块链网络，市值为 140 亿美元。

However, I believe it has virtually no utility. And it doesn't have that many developers working on advancing the network. This doesn't bode well for its long-term viability. Eventually, the market might start to question if Dogecoin should even exist.

然而，我认为它实际上没有任何用处。而且没有那么多开发人员致力于推进网络。这对其长期生存能力来说并不是一个好兆头。最终，市场可能会开始质疑狗狗币是否应该存在。

For someone looking to invest their hard-earned savings into an asset, there are many better choices. Digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum could satisfy your crypto allocation. There are even growth tech stocks that could provide a better alternative for investors who are comfortable taking on more risk in the equity markets.

对于想要将辛苦赚来的积蓄投资于资产的人来说，有很多更好的选择。比特币和以太坊等数字资产可以满足您的加密货币配置。甚至还有一些成长型科技股可以为愿意在股市承担更多风险的投资者提供更好的选择。

Not only do I view Dogecoin as an investment you're better off not making, I don't see its price ever getting to $1 per token.

我不仅认为狗狗币是一种最好不要进行的投资，而且我认为它的价格永远不会达到每个代币 1 美元。