德意志銀行、比特幣和核心儲備：新的淘金熱？

德意志銀行分析師表示，在去美元化和機構採用的推動下，到 2030 年，比特幣可能會模仿黃金作為央行核心儲備資產的角色。

Is Bitcoin the new gold? Deutsche Bank analysts think so, suggesting it could become a staple in central bank reserves alongside gold by 2030. Let's dive into why this is gaining traction.

比特幣是新的黃金嗎？德意志銀行分析師也這麼認為，並暗示到 2030 年它可能會與黃金一樣成為央行儲備的主要組成部分。讓我們深入探討一下為什麼它會受到關注。

Bitcoin as Digital Gold: Deutsche Bank's Perspective

比特幣作為數字黃金：德意志銀行的觀點

Deutsche Bank economists Marion Laboure and Camilla Siazon believe that as confidence in the US dollar wanes, central banks might start viewing Bitcoin as a modern equivalent to gold. This shift is fueled by the decreasing dependence on the US dollar and the increasing acceptance of Bitcoin by institutions.

德意志銀行經濟學家 Marion Laboure 和 Camilla Siazon 認為，隨著對美元信心的減弱，各國央行可能會開始將比特幣視為黃金的現代等價物。這種轉變是由於對美元依賴的減少和機構對比特幣的接受度不斷提高而推動的。

De-dollarization and the Rise of Bitcoin

去美元化和比特幣的崛起

The Bloomberg report highlights a significant trend: de-dollarization. Laboure notes that the dollar's share in global reserves has dropped from 60% in 2000 to 41% in 2025, with Bitcoin and ETFs benefiting from this change. While JPMorgan analysts suggest stablecoins could revive dollar demand, the overall trend points towards diversification into assets like Bitcoin and gold.

彭博社的報告強調了一個重要趨勢：去美元化。工黨指出，美元在全球儲備中的份額已從 2000 年的 60% 下降到 2025 年的 41%，比特幣和 ETF 將從這一變化中受益。儘管摩根大通分析師認為穩定幣可以重振美元需求，但總體趨勢指向比特幣和黃金等資產的多元化。

Central Banks and Bitcoin: A Future Reality?

中央銀行和比特幣：未來的現實？

Despite Bitcoin's notorious volatility, Deutsche Bank analysts argue that its legitimacy, liquidity, limited supply, and ability to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks make it an attractive asset for central banks. They predict that by 2030, Bitcoin will be a part of central bank balance sheets, mirroring gold's role in the 20th century.

儘管比特幣的波動性眾所周知，但德意志銀行分析師認為，其合法性、流動性、有限的供應以及對沖通脹和地緣政治風險的能力使其成為對央行有吸引力的資產。他們預測，到 2030 年，比特幣將成為央行資產負債表的一部分，類似於黃金在 20 世紀的作用。

ETF Inflows and Institutional Adoption

ETF 流入和機構採用

The recent performance of Bitcoin ETFs supports this view. Since early 2024, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted substantial net inflows, bridging traditional finance and digital assets. These ETFs now hold 6.45% of the global Bitcoin supply, valued at over US$165 billion. This surge in ETF inflows underscores the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin.

比特幣 ETF 最近的表現支持了這一觀點。自 2024 年初以來，美國現貨比特幣 ETF 吸引了大量淨流入，連接了傳統金融和數字資產。這些 ETF 目前持有全球比特幣供應量的 6.45%，價值超過 1650 億美元。 ETF 資金流入的激增凸顯了機構對比特幣日益增長的興趣。

Is a Bitcoin Price Peak on the Horizon?

比特幣價格峰值即將到來嗎？

According to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, there are currently no signs of a Bitcoin price peak. Despite Bitcoin hitting an all-time high above $126,000, the Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss indicator suggests that the rally is still intact. This indicates that there's still room for growth.

據鏈上分析公司 CryptoQuant 稱，目前沒有比特幣價格見頂的跡象。儘管比特幣觸及 126,000 美元以上的歷史新高，但比特幣淨實現損益指標表明，漲勢仍然完好。這表明仍有增長空間。

Personal Take: Bitcoin's Maturation

個人看法：比特幣的成熟

It's fascinating to see how Bitcoin's narrative is evolving. Once dismissed as a speculative asset, it's now being considered as a legitimate reserve asset by major financial institutions. The growing acceptance of Bitcoin ETFs and the increasing interest from central banks highlight its maturation as an asset class. While volatility remains a concern, the long-term potential of Bitcoin as a store of value seems increasingly promising. Germany selling all of its Bitcoin holdings is interesting, but doesn't deter from the overall adoption trend.

看到比特幣的故事如何演變是很有趣的。它曾經被視為投機資產，現在被主要金融機構視為合法的儲備資產。比特幣 ETF 的接受度不斷提高以及央行的興趣日益濃厚，凸顯了其作為一種資產類別的成熟。儘管波動性仍然令人擔憂，但比特幣作為價值儲存手段的長期潛力似乎越來越有希望。德國出售其所有比特幣持有量很有趣，但並沒有阻止整體採用趨勢。

So, will Bitcoin become the new gold? Only time will tell, but the signs are certainly pointing in that direction. Keep an eye on those ETF inflows and central bank announcements – it's gonna be a wild ride!

那麼，比特幣會成為新的黃金嗎？只有時間才能證明一切，但跡象肯定指向這個方向。密切關注 ETF 資金流入和央行公告——這將是一場瘋狂的旅程！