德意志银行、比特币和核心储备：新的淘金热？

德意志银行分析师表示，在去美元化和机构采用的推动下，到 2030 年，比特币可能会模仿黄金作为央行核心储备资产的角色。

Is Bitcoin the new gold? Deutsche Bank analysts think so, suggesting it could become a staple in central bank reserves alongside gold by 2030. Let's dive into why this is gaining traction.

比特币是新的黄金吗？德意志银行分析师也这么认为，并暗示到 2030 年它可能会与黄金一样成为央行储备的主要组成部分。让我们深入探讨一下为什么它会受到关注。

Bitcoin as Digital Gold: Deutsche Bank's Perspective

比特币作为数字黄金：德意志银行的观点

Deutsche Bank economists Marion Laboure and Camilla Siazon believe that as confidence in the US dollar wanes, central banks might start viewing Bitcoin as a modern equivalent to gold. This shift is fueled by the decreasing dependence on the US dollar and the increasing acceptance of Bitcoin by institutions.

德意志银行经济学家 Marion Laboure 和 Camilla Siazon 认为，随着对美元信心的减弱，各国央行可能会开始将比特币视为黄金的现代等价物。这种转变是由于对美元依赖的减少和机构对比特币的接受度不断提高而推动的。

De-dollarization and the Rise of Bitcoin

去美元化和比特币的崛起

The Bloomberg report highlights a significant trend: de-dollarization. Laboure notes that the dollar's share in global reserves has dropped from 60% in 2000 to 41% in 2025, with Bitcoin and ETFs benefiting from this change. While JPMorgan analysts suggest stablecoins could revive dollar demand, the overall trend points towards diversification into assets like Bitcoin and gold.

彭博社的报告强调了一个重要趋势：去美元化。工党指出，美元在全球储备中的份额已从 2000 年的 60% 下降到 2025 年的 41%，比特币和 ETF 将从这一变化中受益。尽管摩根大通分析师认为稳定币可以重振美元需求，但总体趋势指向比特币和黄金等资产的多元化。

Central Banks and Bitcoin: A Future Reality?

中央银行和比特币：未来的现实？

Despite Bitcoin's notorious volatility, Deutsche Bank analysts argue that its legitimacy, liquidity, limited supply, and ability to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks make it an attractive asset for central banks. They predict that by 2030, Bitcoin will be a part of central bank balance sheets, mirroring gold's role in the 20th century.

尽管比特币的波动性众所周知，但德意志银行分析师认为，其合法性、流动性、有限的供应以及对冲通胀和地缘政治风险的能力使其成为对央行有吸引力的资产。他们预测，到 2030 年，比特币将成为央行资产负债表的一部分，类似于黄金在 20 世纪的作用。

ETF Inflows and Institutional Adoption

ETF 流入和机构采用

The recent performance of Bitcoin ETFs supports this view. Since early 2024, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted substantial net inflows, bridging traditional finance and digital assets. These ETFs now hold 6.45% of the global Bitcoin supply, valued at over US$165 billion. This surge in ETF inflows underscores the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin.

比特币 ETF 最近的表现支持了这一观点。自 2024 年初以来，美国现货比特币 ETF 吸引了大量净流入，连接了传统金融和数字资产。这些 ETF 目前持有全球比特币供应量的 6.45%，价值超过 1650 亿美元。 ETF 资金流入的激增凸显了机构对比特币日益增长的兴趣。

Is a Bitcoin Price Peak on the Horizon?

比特币价格峰值即将到来吗？

According to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, there are currently no signs of a Bitcoin price peak. Despite Bitcoin hitting an all-time high above $126,000, the Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss indicator suggests that the rally is still intact. This indicates that there's still room for growth.

据链上分析公司 CryptoQuant 称，目前没有比特币价格见顶的迹象。尽管比特币触及 126,000 美元以上的历史新高，但比特币净实现损益指标表明，涨势仍然完好。这表明仍有增长空间。

Personal Take: Bitcoin's Maturation

个人看法：比特币的成熟

It's fascinating to see how Bitcoin's narrative is evolving. Once dismissed as a speculative asset, it's now being considered as a legitimate reserve asset by major financial institutions. The growing acceptance of Bitcoin ETFs and the increasing interest from central banks highlight its maturation as an asset class. While volatility remains a concern, the long-term potential of Bitcoin as a store of value seems increasingly promising. Germany selling all of its Bitcoin holdings is interesting, but doesn't deter from the overall adoption trend.

看到比特币的故事如何演变是很有趣的。它曾经被视为投机资产，现在被主要金融机构视为合法的储备资产。比特币 ETF 的接受度不断提高以及央行的兴趣日益浓厚，凸显了其作为一种资产类别的成熟。尽管波动性仍然令人担忧，但比特币作为价值储存手段的长期潜力似乎越来越有希望。德国出售其所有比特币持有量很有趣，但并没有阻止整体采用趋势。

So, will Bitcoin become the new gold? Only time will tell, but the signs are certainly pointing in that direction. Keep an eye on those ETF inflows and central bank announcements – it's gonna be a wild ride!

那么，比特币会成为新的黄金吗？只有时间才能证明一切，但迹象肯定指向这个方向。密切关注 ETF 资金流入和央行公告——这将是一场疯狂的旅程！