比特币等待FOMC裁决，边缘的加密市场

比特币（BTC）和更广泛的加密货币市场等待周三的FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）会议和随后的杰罗姆·鲍威尔新闻发布会。

Crypto traders are largely anticipating the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25% – 4.5% on Wednesday.

加密交易者在很大程度上预计美国美联储（美联储）将利率保持在周三的4.25％至4.5％。

According to data on the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants assign a 95.6% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at 4.25% – 4.5%.

根据CME FedWatch工具的数据，市场参与者分配了95.6％的概率，即美联储将利率稳定为4.25％ - 4.5％。

However, with this largely priced in, attention is now on the tone and guidance that Chair Jerome Powell provides at the subsequent press conference.

但是，随着这一价格的价格，现在注意到杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在随后的新闻发布会上提供的语调和指导。

“If they do 3.5% [now 4.4%] they will have an insane positive reaction,” stated Bitcoinensus.

比特币说：“如果他们做3.5％[现在4.4％]，他们将产生疯狂的积极反应。”

Despite the high probability of the Fed keeping interest rates steady, traders are preparing for plenty of volatility. They had adopted a risk-off stance, with Bitcoin (BTC) price consolidating in the $94,000 range.

尽管美联储保持利率稳定，但交易者仍在准备大量波动。他们采取了冒险立场，比特币（BTC）价格合并在94,000美元之间。

Similarly, ETF (exchange-traded fund) inflows are slowing, alongside rising liquidations. Swissblock analysts described the atmosphere as a “battle” of resistance. They cite negative funding rates and high open interest, suggesting bears are intensifying short positions.

同样，ETF（交易所交易基金）的流入也随着清算的上升而放缓。 Swissblock分析师将气氛描述为抵抗的“战斗”。他们引用了负面的资金率和较高的开放兴趣，这表明熊正在加强短职位。

“The $97,000–$98,500 range is key. Momentum could trigger short liquidations, pushing BTC up. But beware: a bear trap might flip into a bull trap if conviction fades,” Swissblock warned.

Swissblock警告说：“ $ 97,000– $ 98,500的范围是关键。动量可能会触发短暂的清算，将BTC推动。但是要当心：如果信念逐渐消失，熊陷阱可能会翻到牛陷阱中。”

This week’s FOMC meeting is pivotal for risk assets. Historical data shows that three of the last five FOMC decisions led to bullish outcomes for Bitcoin. But this one comes amid heightened uncertainty.

本周的FOMC会议对于风险资产至关重要。历史数据表明，最近五个FOMC的决策中有三个导致了比特币的看涨结果。但是，这是由于不确定性而增加。

The market is still digesting softer GDP prints, ongoing trade war tensions, and inflation worries, especially with Trump’s tariff rhetoric, which has clouded rate-cut expectations for June.

该市场仍在消化柔和的GDP印刷品，持续的贸易战紧张局势和通货膨胀的烦恼，尤其是特朗普的关税言论，这使人们对6月的税率削减了预期。

“This Wednesday’s May FOMC meeting will result in an interest rate hold but also June expectations have flipped to a hold,” Veteran trader Mathew Dixon noted.

资深商人马修·迪克森（Mathew Dixon）指出：“本周三的5月FOMC会议将导致利率持有，但六月的期望也已持有。”

Powell’s Words May Trigger Bitcoin Breakout—or Breakdown

鲍威尔的话可能会触发比特币的突破 - 或分解

Such ambiguity is feeding the market’s anxiety. In December 2023, Powell’s hawkish pivot sparked a “bloodbath” across risk markets, and some traders now fear a repeat.

这种歧义正在助长市场的焦虑。 2023年12月，鲍威尔的鹰派枢轴在风险市场上引起了“血腥”，一些交易者现在担心重复。

“Bull markets don’t die of old age—they’re murdered by the Fed. If Powell’s tone echoes December’s bloodbath or ignores negative GDP, markets may repeat the same violent flush… It’s a drunken game of darts for Wall Street analysts,” said trader Jim.

“牛市不会死于老年 - 他们被美联储谋杀。如果鲍威尔的语气回荡了12月的血腥或忽略负面的GDP，那么市场可能会重复相同的暴力冲突……这是华尔街分析师的醉酒游戏，” Trader Jim说。

Meanwhile, analysts like Michaël van de Poppe see gold’s recent rally as a sign of prevailing caution.

同时，像MichaëlVande Poppe这样的分析师将Gold最近的集会视为谨慎的迹象。

“We’re still seeing the risk-off mentality going into the Fed meeting…Bitcoin build-up is good…expecting to see ETH turn upwards after Wednesday,” he said.

他说：“我们仍然看到进入美联储会议的冒险心态……比特币的积累很好……期望在星期三之后看到ETH上升。”

Another analyst, Crypto Seth, observed growing degen activity as Bitcoin price forms a local bottom around $94,000.

另一位分析师Crypto Seth观察到了Degen活动的增长，因为比特币价格构成了94,000美元左右的本地底部。

“Degens are building up positions anticipating a move. Market makers might just wick down and grab the longs before up… Bitcoin might be choppy before the FOMC,” he stated.

他说：“ Degens正在建立预计行动的位置。做市商可能只是Wick倒下并抓住渴望的渴望……比特币在FOMC之前可能会变得波动。”

The broader macro backdrop is equally murky. Analysts point to the unresolved US-China trade tensions and their impact on consumption, labor markets, and ultimately, political outcomes.

更广泛的宏观背景同样模糊。分析师指出，未解决的美国 - 中国贸易紧张局势及其对消费，劳动力市场以及最终政治成果的影响。

“Uncertainty is now a liability for Trump, not a negotiation tool,” they argued.

他们认为：“不确定性现在是特朗普的责任，而不是谈判工具。”

Despite the swirling fears, a breakout remains on the table. Bulls could get the green light if Jerome Powell strikes a more dovish tone or hints at cuts later this year. According to BitMEX co-founder and former CEO, Arthur Hayes, the Fed switching to quantitative easing (QE) could see Bitcoin price go parabolic.

尽管担心盘旋，但仍在桌上突破。如果杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在今年晚些时候提出了更虔诚的语气或暗示削减的暗示，则公牛可能会获得绿灯。根据Bitmex联合创始人兼前首席执行官Arthur Hayes的说法，改用定量宽松（QE）的美联储可能会看到比特币的价格寄生虫。

However, Bitcoin could revisit recent lows in a sharp unwind if the Fed doubles down on hawkishness. Ahead of the Wednesday FOMC meeting, the market is walking a tightrope, and all eyes are on Powell to decide which way it tips.

但是，如果美联储翻了一番，比特币可以重新审视最近的低点。在FOMC会议之前，市场正在走钢丝，所有人都注视着鲍威尔（Powell）决定其提示的方式。

BeInCrypto data shows Bitcoin was trading for $94,474 as of this writing, down by 0.16% in the last 24 hours.

Beincrypto数据显示，截至撰写本文时，比特币的交易价格为94,474美元，在过去的24小时内下降了0.16％。