根據往年的表現，加密貨幣市場即將迎來悲觀的 9 月

對恐慌性拋售的新擔憂導致交易者重新評估其部位。加密貨幣市場價值縮水，市值縮水至 2T 美元以下

The crypto market is bracing for a bearish September, considering the performance in previous years. New fears of panic-selling are leading traders to re-estimate their positions.

考慮到前幾年的表現，加密貨幣市場正準備迎接悲觀的 9 月。對恐慌性拋售的新擔憂導致交易者重新評估其部位。

The crypto market lost value, shrinking its market cap to below $2 trillion, erasing the gains made during the most active months of 2024. Now, the 2024 valuation pattern recalls early 2022, though panic selling has not begun.

加密貨幣市場價值縮水，市值縮水至 2 兆美元以下，抹去了 2024 年最活躍月份的漲幅。

Bitcoin (BTC) price analysis reveals traders attacking accumulated liquidity in a bid to drive the price lower. So far, the price slides have stopped without a deeper drawdown or contagion, compared to previous market periods.

比特幣（BTC）價格分析顯示，交易者正在攻擊累積的流動性，以壓低價格。到目前為止，與先前的市場時期相比，價格下滑已經停止，沒有出現更嚴重的下跌或蔓延。

BTC price analysis: Key points to watch for the coming week

BTC價格分析：未來一週值得關注的要點

Bitcoin (BTC) dipped under $57,000, just weeks after sliding as low as $49,000. So far, BTC has managed to recover, and the deepest drawdowns only caused 25% corrections. At the higher price range, BTC is seen as too valuable to sell during a shakedown. As expected, the most recent BTC crash attacked the accumulated liquidity just under the $57,000 level.

比特幣 (BTC) 在跌至 49,000 美元幾週後跌破 57,000 美元。到目前為止，BTC 已成功復甦，最嚴重的下跌僅導致 25% 的回檔。在較高的價格範圍內，比特幣被認為太有價值，無法在市場震盪期間出售。正如預期的那樣，最近的 BTC 崩盤衝擊了略低於 57,000 美元水平的累積流動性。

Yet according to some analysts, panic-selling may start if the price erases 10%. Even recent trading events show that the market is ready to follow the panic-selling model, especially with a triggering event.

但一些分析師表示，如果價格下跌 10%，恐慌性拋售可能就會開始。即使最近的交易事件也顯示市場已準備好追隨恐慌性拋售模式，尤其是在發生觸發事件的情況下。

The latest price moves for BTC seem less affected by the wider market sentiment. The S&P 500 index had one of its worst negative days for the year, but it did not exacerbate the BTC dip, or lead to contagion.

比特幣的最新價格走勢似乎受更廣泛市場情緒的影響較小。標普 500 指數經歷了今年以來最嚴重的下跌日之一，但這並沒有加劇 BTC 的下跌，也沒有導致蔓延。

While a full BTC decoupling may not materialize, Santiment’s analysis shows a short-term panic is not so easy to create. The average BTC holder sits on unrealized profits of 45% to 50%, while market capitulation and a bear market last happened with unrealized losses of 25% across the board.

雖然比特幣完全脫鉤可能不會實現，但 Santiment 的分析顯示，短期恐慌並不那麼容易造成。 BTC 持有者平均未實現利潤為 45% 至 50%，而市場投降和熊市最後發生時，未實現損失全面達到 25%。

The price slide of BTC from July 29 led to accelerated selling and the market-wide panic on August 5. During that period, BTC crashed from $65,000 down to $49,000 for a short-term local low. A similar scenario is feared in the coming weeks, also awaiting a net negative close for the whole month.

BTC從7月29日開始的價格下跌導致拋售加速，並在8月5日引發了全市場的恐慌。人們擔心未來幾週會出現類似的情況，同時等待整個月的淨負收盤。

During its 14-year history, BTC only achieved four net positive September closes. The current price level around $57,000 also looks shaky, with short-term investors holding unrealized losses.

在 14 年的歷史中，BTC 僅在 9 月實現了四次淨正收盤。目前 57,000 美元左右的價格水準看起來也不穩定，短期投資者持有未實現的損失。

A deeper slide may make some of the traders sell at a loss, awaiting a lower price range. Negative macroeconomic trends and uncertainty around Fed’s upcoming decision on September 18 are adding to the market worries.

更嚴重的下滑可能會讓一些交易者虧本出售，等待更低的價格區間。負面的宏觀經濟趨勢以及聯準會即將於 9 月 18 日做出的決定的不確定性加劇了市場的擔憂。

While crypto insiders are not panic-selling, mainstream investors may be reacting to the recent volatility. Bitcoin ETF had net outflows of $287.8 million as of September 3, the highest since May. The last week also achieved net ETF selling of $760 million, coinciding with increased BTC volatility.

雖然加密貨幣內部人士並沒有恐慌性拋售，但主流投資者可能會對最近的波動做出反應。截至 9 月 3 日，比特幣 ETF 淨流出 2.878 億美元，為 5 月以來最高。上週 ETF 淨賣出額也達 7.6 億美元，同時比特幣波動性也在增加。

Liquidity is waiting on the sidelines

流動性正在觀望

Liquidity in the form of stablecoins seems to be waiting on the sidelines. Both big organizations and whales are holding USDT, USDC, and other stablecoins. USDT on exchanges also expanded to $362 million, up by 100% in the past few months. Those tokens may have a more significant effect, compared to USDT sitting idly in wallets. USDT ownership also expanded on-chain, from 5.91 million holders to 5.98 million holders in the past month.

穩定幣形式的流動性似乎正在觀望。大機構和鯨魚都持有 USDT、USDC 等穩定幣。交易所的 USDT 也擴大至 3.62 億美元，過去幾個月成長了 100%。與閒置在錢包中的 USDT 相比，這些代幣可能會產生更顯著的影響。 USDT 的鏈上持有量也有所擴大，過去一個月持有者從 591 萬增加到 598 萬。

The supply of USDC has been expanding since the 2022 lows, moving up from 39 billion in early 2024 to more than 50 billion ERC-20 tokens in September. The rest of the supply to a total of 118.14 billion tokens was minted on TRON and a handful of smaller networks, but may not affect the market in the same way.

自 2022 年低點以來，USDC 的供應量一直在擴大，從 2024 年初的 390 億枚增至 9 月的超過 500 億枚 ERC-20 代幣。總共 1181.4 億枚代幣的其餘供應是在 TRON 和少數較小的網絡上鑄造的，但可能不會以同樣的方式影響市場。

During the expansion of USDT supply, BTC prices remained range-bound, while holders used their stablecoins for low-risk trades and locking in gains.

在USDT供應量擴張期間，BTC價格維持區間波動，而持有者則利用穩定幣進行低風險交易並鎖定收益。

BTC prices are also more reactive to inflows of FDUSD, a stablecoin that is mostly used on Binance. The recent dip under $57,000 coincided with the ongoing contraction of the FDUSD supply, down to 2.6 billion tokens from 2.7 billion just a day ago.

BTC 價格對 FDUSD 的流入也更加敏感，FDUSD 是一種主要在幣安上使用的穩定幣。在最近跌破 57,000 美元的同時，FDUSD 供應量持續收縮，從一天前的 27 億枚降至 26 億枚。

An inflow of FDUSD may be the better signal, compared to a raw inflow of all types of stablecoins. Even with $167 billion in stablecoins available, not all are directed toward BTC trading pairs.

與所有類型穩定幣的原始流入相比，FDUSD 的流入可能是更好的訊號。儘管有 1,670 億美元的穩定幣可用，但並非所有穩定幣都針對 BTC 交易對。

One of the markers for lowered BTC enthusiasm is low on-chain activity. In the past quarter, BTC daily active addresses dipped to an average 500K per day. Average transaction fees are also

比特幣熱情降低的標誌之一是鏈上活動較低。在過去的一個季度，BTC 日活躍地址下降至平均每天 50 萬個。平均交易費用也