根据往年的表现，加密货币市场即将迎来悲观的 9 月

对恐慌性抛售的新担忧导致交易者重新评估其头寸。加密货币市场价值缩水，市值缩水至 2T 美元以下

The crypto market is bracing for a bearish September, considering the performance in previous years. New fears of panic-selling are leading traders to re-estimate their positions.

考虑到前几年的表现，加密货币市场正准备迎接悲观的 9 月份。对恐慌性抛售的新担忧导致交易者重新评估其头寸。

The crypto market lost value, shrinking its market cap to below $2 trillion, erasing the gains made during the most active months of 2024. Now, the 2024 valuation pattern recalls early 2022, though panic selling has not begun.

加密货币市场价值缩水，市值缩水至 2 万亿美元以下，抹去了 2024 年最活跃月份的涨幅。现在，2024 年的估值模式让人回想起 2022 年初，尽管恐慌性抛售尚未开始。

Bitcoin (BTC) price analysis reveals traders attacking accumulated liquidity in a bid to drive the price lower. So far, the price slides have stopped without a deeper drawdown or contagion, compared to previous market periods.

比特币（BTC）价格分析显示，交易者正在攻击积累的流动性，以压低价格。到目前为止，与之前的市场时期相比，价格下滑已经停止，没有出现更严重的下跌或蔓延。

BTC price analysis: Key points to watch for the coming week

BTC价格分析：未来一周值得关注的要点

Bitcoin (BTC) dipped under $57,000, just weeks after sliding as low as $49,000. So far, BTC has managed to recover, and the deepest drawdowns only caused 25% corrections. At the higher price range, BTC is seen as too valuable to sell during a shakedown. As expected, the most recent BTC crash attacked the accumulated liquidity just under the $57,000 level.

比特币 (BTC) 在跌至 49,000 美元几周后跌破 57,000 美元。到目前为止，BTC 已成功复苏，最严重的下跌仅导致 25% 的回调。在较高的价格范围内，比特币被认为太有价值，无法在市场震荡期间出售。正如预期的那样，最近的 BTC 崩盘冲击了略低于 57,000 美元水平的累积流动性。

Yet according to some analysts, panic-selling may start if the price erases 10%. Even recent trading events show that the market is ready to follow the panic-selling model, especially with a triggering event.

但一些分析师表示，如果价格下跌 10%，恐慌性抛售可能就会开始。即使最近的交易事件也表明市场已准备好追随恐慌性抛售模式，尤其是在发生触发事件的情况下。

The latest price moves for BTC seem less affected by the wider market sentiment. The S&P 500 index had one of its worst negative days for the year, but it did not exacerbate the BTC dip, or lead to contagion.

比特币的最新价格走势似乎受更广泛市场情绪的影响较小。标准普尔 500 指数经历了今年以来最严重的下跌日之一，但这并没有加剧 BTC 的下跌，也没有导致蔓延。

While a full BTC decoupling may not materialize, Santiment’s analysis shows a short-term panic is not so easy to create. The average BTC holder sits on unrealized profits of 45% to 50%, while market capitulation and a bear market last happened with unrealized losses of 25% across the board.

虽然比特币完全脱钩可能不会实现，但 Santiment 的分析显示，短期恐慌并不那么容易造成。 BTC 持有者平均未实现利润为 45% 至 50%，而市场投降和熊市最后发生时，未实现损失全面达到 25%。

The price slide of BTC from July 29 led to accelerated selling and the market-wide panic on August 5. During that period, BTC crashed from $65,000 down to $49,000 for a short-term local low. A similar scenario is feared in the coming weeks, also awaiting a net negative close for the whole month.

BTC从7月29日开始的价格下跌导致抛售加速，并在8月5日引发了全市场的恐慌。在此期间，BTC从65,000美元暴跌至49,000美元，创下短期局部低点。人们担心未来几周会出现类似的情况，同时等待整个月的净负收盘。

During its 14-year history, BTC only achieved four net positive September closes. The current price level around $57,000 also looks shaky, with short-term investors holding unrealized losses.

在 14 年的历史中，BTC 仅在 9 月份实现了四次净正收盘。目前 57,000 美元左右的价格水平看起来也不稳定，短期投资者持有未实现的损失。

A deeper slide may make some of the traders sell at a loss, awaiting a lower price range. Negative macroeconomic trends and uncertainty around Fed’s upcoming decision on September 18 are adding to the market worries.

更严重的下滑可能会让一些交易者亏本出售，等待更低的价格区间。负面的宏观经济趋势以及美联储即将于 9 月 18 日做出的决定的不确定性加剧了市场的担忧。

While crypto insiders are not panic-selling, mainstream investors may be reacting to the recent volatility. Bitcoin ETF had net outflows of $287.8 million as of September 3, the highest since May. The last week also achieved net ETF selling of $760 million, coinciding with increased BTC volatility.

虽然加密货币内部人士并没有恐慌性抛售，但主流投资者可能会对最近的波动做出反应。截至 9 月 3 日，比特币 ETF 净流出 2.878 亿美元，为 5 月份以来最高。上周 ETF 净卖出额也达到 7.6 亿美元，同时比特币波动性也在增加。

Liquidity is waiting on the sidelines

流动性正在观望

Liquidity in the form of stablecoins seems to be waiting on the sidelines. Both big organizations and whales are holding USDT, USDC, and other stablecoins. USDT on exchanges also expanded to $362 million, up by 100% in the past few months. Those tokens may have a more significant effect, compared to USDT sitting idly in wallets. USDT ownership also expanded on-chain, from 5.91 million holders to 5.98 million holders in the past month.

稳定币形式的流动性似乎正在观望。大机构和鲸鱼都持有 USDT、USDC 等稳定币。交易所的 USDT 也扩大至 3.62 亿美元，过去几个月增长了 100%。与闲置在钱包中的 USDT 相比，这些代币可能会产生更显着的影响。 USDT 的链上持有量也有所扩大，过去一个月持有者从 591 万增加到 598 万。

The supply of USDC has been expanding since the 2022 lows, moving up from 39 billion in early 2024 to more than 50 billion ERC-20 tokens in September. The rest of the supply to a total of 118.14 billion tokens was minted on TRON and a handful of smaller networks, but may not affect the market in the same way.

自 2022 年低点以来，USDC 的供应量一直在扩大，从 2024 年初的 390 亿枚增至 9 月份的超过 500 亿枚 ERC-20 代币。总共 1181.4 亿枚代币的其余供应是在 TRON 和少数较小的网络上铸造的，但可能不会以同样的方式影响市场。

During the expansion of USDT supply, BTC prices remained range-bound, while holders used their stablecoins for low-risk trades and locking in gains.

在USDT供应量扩张期间，BTC价格维持区间波动，而持有者则利用稳定币进行低风险交易并锁定收益。

BTC prices are also more reactive to inflows of FDUSD, a stablecoin that is mostly used on Binance. The recent dip under $57,000 coincided with the ongoing contraction of the FDUSD supply, down to 2.6 billion tokens from 2.7 billion just a day ago.

BTC 价格对 FDUSD 的流入也更加敏感，FDUSD 是一种主要在币安上使用的稳定币。最近跌破 57,000 美元的同时，FDUSD 供应量持续收缩，从一天前的 27 亿枚降至 26 亿枚。

An inflow of FDUSD may be the better signal, compared to a raw inflow of all types of stablecoins. Even with $167 billion in stablecoins available, not all are directed toward BTC trading pairs.

与所有类型稳定币的原始流入相比，FDUSD 的流入可能是更好的信号。尽管有 1670 亿美元的稳定币可用，但并非所有稳定币都针对 BTC 交易对。

One of the markers for lowered BTC enthusiasm is low on-chain activity. In the past quarter, BTC daily active addresses dipped to an average 500K per day. Average transaction fees are also

比特币热情降低的标志之一是链上活动较低。在过去的一个季度，BTC 日活跃地址下降至平均每天 50 万个。平均交易费用也