美國CPI如何影響加密貨幣市場的表現

美國勞工統計局（BLS）公佈了本月的消費者物價指數數據，與往常一樣，這導致了消費者物價指數的一些波動。

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released this month’s data for the Consumer Price Index, and as usual, that's caused some volatility in the cryptocurrency markets.

美國勞工統計局（BLS）發布了本月的消費者物價指數數據，與往常一樣，這導致了加密貨幣市場的一些波動。

After the CPI figures came out, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose by about 1.5% during the past hour. At the time of writing, BTC trades at $42,2k.

CPI數據公佈後，比特幣（BTC）價格在過去一小時內上漲了約1.5%。截至撰寫本文時，BTC 交易價格為 42,200 美元。

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are up by 0.2% and 0.7%, respectively.

同時，標準普爾 500 指數和那斯達克指數分別上漲 0.2% 和 0.7%。

As covered by Finbold on March 10, a lower-than-expected CPI reading today could indeed tip BTC into moving along with risk assets, as it would support the narrative of slowing inflation and a potential rate cut.

正如 Finbold 在 3 月 10 日報導的那樣，今天低於預期的 CPI 讀數確實可能會促使 BTC 與風險資產一起波動，因為這將支持通膨放緩和可能降息的說法。

In any case, several experts shared their thoughts on how the CPI affects the performance of the broader cryptocurrency market.

無論如何，幾位專家分享了他們對 CPI 如何影響更廣泛的加密貨幣市場表現的看法。

Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at Bitfinex, shared his thoughts on how the CPI affects the performance of the broader cryptocurrency market.

Bitfinex 衍生性商品主管 Jag Kooner 分享了他對 CPI 如何影響更廣泛的加密貨幣市場表現的看法。

“A lower-than-expected CPI reading today could indeed tip BTC into moving along with risk assets, as it would support the narrative of slowing inflation and a potential rate cut. However, if the market prices in a lower CPI reading and it comes out higher than expected, we could see a sell-the-news event in the markets.”

「今天低於預期的消費者物價指數確實可能會促使比特幣與風險資產一起波動，因為它將支持通膨放緩和可能降息的說法。然而，如果市場以較低的 CPI 讀數定價，而其結果高於預期，我們可能會在市場上看到拋售新聞事件。

Kooner adds that a higher-than-expected CPI reading may cause cryptocurrencies to trade independently of risk assets. According to him:

Kooner 補充說，高於預期的 CPI 讀數可能會導致加密貨幣的交易獨立於風險資產。按照他的說法：

“In this scenario, cryptocurrencies may trade independently of risk assets as a sticky inflation narrative unfolds. This could lead to a decoupling of cryptocurrencies from the broader market.”

「在這種情況下，隨著黏性通膨的展開，加密貨幣的交易可能獨立於風險資產。這可能導致加密貨幣與更廣泛的市場脫鉤。

Impact of lower CPI on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies

較低的 CPI 對比特幣和加密貨幣的影響

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is lower than we thought, it could have a few different effects on Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market.

如果消費者物價指數（CPI）低於我們的預期，可能會對比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場產生一些不同的影響。

Lower Inflation Expectations

降低通膨預期

If the CPI figures are lower than expected, inflation is often under control or even decreasing. This can be good for cryptocurrencies because investors may look for alternatives to traditional fiat currencies that can lose value during high inflation.

如果CPI數據低於預期，通膨往往受到控制甚至下降。這對加密貨幣來說可能是件好事，因為投資者可能會尋找傳統法定貨幣的替代品，而傳統法定貨幣在高通膨期間可能會貶值。

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have performed well in the past when inflation was high. For example, in 2021, as inflation began to rise, Bitcoin outperformed most other major asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and gold.

比特幣和其他加密貨幣在過去通膨高企時表現良好。例如，2021 年，隨著通貨膨脹開始上升，比特幣的表現優於大多數其他主要資產類別，包括股票、債券和黃金。

Some analysts believe that cryptocurrencies could continue to do well if inflation remains high or even increases in 2023. This is because cryptocurrencies are often seen as a hedge against inflation, and investors may look for ways to protect their portfolios from the rising cost of living.

一些分析師認為，如果2023年通膨保持高位甚至上漲，加密貨幣可能會繼續表現良好。成本上漲的影響。

However, it's important to note that cryptocurrencies are also volatile assets and can be affected by a range of other factors, such as changes in the regulatory landscape or the overall health of the economy.

然而，值得注意的是，加密貨幣也是一種波動性資產，可能受到一系列其他因素的影響，例如監管環境的變化或經濟整體健康狀況的變化。

Impact on Interest Rates

對利率的影響

Another way that a lower CPI could affect Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is by influencing central banks' decisions on interest rates.

較低的消費者物價指數影響比特幣和加密貨幣的另一種方式是影響央行的利率決策。

When inflation is lower, central banks may be more likely to cut or stabilize interest rates. Lower interest rates make borrowing cheaper and saving less attractive, so investors might look for higher returns in assets like cryptocurrencies.

當通膨較低時，央行可能更有可能降低或穩定利率。較低的利率使借貸成本降低，儲蓄吸引力降低，因此投資者可能會尋求加密貨幣等資產的更高回報。

In the past, cryptocurrencies have performed well when interest rates were low. For example, in 2020, as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to near zero to help the economy recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rallied significantly.

過去，加密貨幣在利率較低時表現良好。例如，2020 年，隨著聯準會將利率降至接近零以幫助經濟從 COVID-19 大流行中復甦，比特幣和其他加密貨幣大幅上漲。

Some analysts believe that cryptocurrencies could continue to benefit from low interest rates in 2023. This is because lower interest rates make it less attractive for investors to put their money in safe-haven assets, such as gold or bonds, which could lead them to look for alternative investment options, such as cryptocurrencies.

一些分析師認為，到2023 年，加密貨幣可能會繼續受益於低利率。尋找避險資產。

However, it's important to note that cryptocurrencies are a new and emerging asset class, and their performance can be influenced by a variety of factors, including the regulatory environment, the adoption of cryptocurrencies by institutions, and the overall macroeconomic climate.

然而，值得注意的是，加密貨幣是一種新興的資產類別，其表現可能受到多種因素的影響，包括監管環境、機構對加密貨幣的採用以及整體宏觀經濟環境。

Stable or lower interest rates can give investors more confidence and make them more willing to take risks, which could lead to more investment in volatile assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

穩定或較低的利率可以讓投資者更有信心，讓他們更願意承擔風險，這可能會導致對比特幣和其他加密貨幣等波動性資產的更多投資。

Market Sentiment

市場情緒

Finally, a lower CPI could also improve market sentiment overall. When people feel good about the market, they might be more likely to invest in cryptocurrencies.

最後，較低的消費者物價指數也可能改善整體市場情緒。當人們對市場感覺良好時，他們可能更有可能投資加密貨幣。

A lower CPI could signal economic stability, making riskier assets like crypto more attractive and safe-haven assets like gold less appealing.

較低的消費者物價指數可能預示著經濟穩定，使加密貨幣等風險較高的資產更具吸引力，而黃金等避險資產的吸引力則降低。

In the past, cryptocurrencies have performed well when the market was bullish. For example, in 2021, as the stock market reached record highs, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies also experienced a bull market.

過去，當市場看漲時，加密貨幣表現良好。例如，2021年，隨著股市創下歷史新高，比特幣和其他加密貨幣也經歷了多頭市場。

Some analysts believe that cryptocurrencies could continue to benefit from a bullish market in 2023. This is because a rising stock market typically indicates optimism and confidence among investors, which could lead them to be more willing to invest in alternative assets, such as

一些分析師認為，加密貨幣可能會繼續受益於 2023 年的多頭市場。