Coinbase（NASDAQ：COIN）在標準普爾500中彈出24％

尋求快速分數的交易者從Coinbase（NASDAQ：COIN）獲得的貿易商恰好是24％。

In a surprising turn of events, traders who were hoping for a swift recovery in Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) stock after its recent 24% drop may be disappointed. Despite the inclusion of Coinbase in the S&P 500 and the impressive recovery of the cryptocurrency market, the broader demand profile for COIN stock over the past period suggests that it might be time to exit, at least according to quantitative analysis.

令人驚訝的是，希望在最近的24％下降後能夠在Coinbase（NASDAQ：COIN）股票中迅速恢復的交易者可能會感到失望。儘管在標準普爾500指數中包含Coinbase和加密貨幣市場的令人印象深刻的回收率，但在過去時期，硬幣庫存的需求概況表明，至少根據定量分析，可能是時候退出了。

Now, why am I bothering you with this analysis when you can easily check the charts yourself? Well, it’s all about the small edge and how to sustain it over time. These are the practices that differentiate successful speculators from those who are constantly chasing returns.

現在，當您可以輕鬆地自己檢查圖表時，為什麼我會為您打擾您呢？好吧，這一切都與小邊緣以及如何隨著時間的推移維持下去。這些實踐將成功的投機者與不斷追求回報的人區分開。

As most of you know, I’m not interested in the opinion cycle or chatting about a company’s earnings. That's not helpful when it comes to extracting alpha. When it comes to understanding the business, I provide no more value than the next person’s opinion or insight.

眾所周知，我對意見周期或談論公司的收入不感興趣。在提取alpha方面，這無濟於事。在理解業務時，我提供的價值不超過下一個人的意見或洞察力。

About the only value I can bring to this informational arbitrage is the underlying demand profile and specifically the transition from one behavioral state to another.

我能帶給此信息套利的唯一價值是基本需求概況，特別是從一個行為狀態到另一種行為狀態的過渡。

To put it simply, we can analyze how often a specific pattern in the stock market leads to a positive or negative return. In the case of COIN stock prior to its big jump, we saw a “3-7” sequence: three weeks of upside mixed with seven weeks of downside, with a net negative trajectory across the period.

簡而言之，我們可以分析股票市場中特定模式的頻率導致正收益或負面回報。就硬幣庫存而大跳前的情況，我們看到了一個“ 3-7”序列：三週的上行和七個星期的下行方面，整個時期的淨負軌跡。

What stands out about this sequence is that in the following week, there’s a 58.82% chance that the price action will be positive.

關於此序列的最突出的是，在接下來的一周中，價格行動有58.82％的機會是正面的。

Now, COIN stock is an inherently volatile idea. If the bears take control of the market, the median loss sits at 4.86%. Thus, while the probabilistic profile favors the optimists, in terms of payout, the risk-reward asymmetry leans bearishly.

現在，硬幣庫存是一個固有的動蕩的想法。如果熊控制市場，中位損失為4.86％。因此，儘管概率概況偏向於樂觀主義者，但就付費而言，風險獎勵不對稱卻傾向於偏見。

Generally speaking, the stalwarts of industry will more often than not. However, the magnitude of victory is usually quite modest. On the flip side, you have something like COIN stock. It can’t be relied upon to deliver consistent alpha, in large part because of its core business. Being intrinsically tied to cryptocurrencies, COIN’s ebb and flow is massive.

一般而言，行業的堅定者通常會更經常。但是，勝利的幅度通常很謙虛。另一方面，您有類似硬幣庫存的東西。在很大程度上是由於其核心業務，它不能依靠一致的alpha。硬幣的起伏與加密貨幣本質上是巨大的。

In other words, the good times are great; the bad times are utterly terrible

換句話說，美好時光很棒。糟糕的時光完全可怕

Still, the dichotomous nature of Coinbase’s risk-reward profile is what makes the underlying equity so attractive for speculators who deploy quantitative approaches. These are the folks that don’t look at the opinion cycle of financial publications. Instead, they’re laser-focused on empirical signals.

儘管如此，Coinbase的風險回報概況的二分法是使基本權益對部署定量方法的投機者如此有吸引力的原因。這些人不看財務出版物的意見周期。取而代之的是，它們以激光為專注於經驗信號。

Quite frankly, that’s the only approach that matters (in my opinion).

坦率地說，這是唯一重要的方法（在我看來）。

Now that the dust has settled on COIN stock's inclusion in the S&P 500 and the stunning recovery of the cryptocurrency market, we can take a closer look at the broader demand profile for Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) stock and why it may be time to exit, at least according to quantitative analysis.

既然塵埃已經解決了Coin Stock在標準普爾500標準普爾500中的包含以及加密貨幣市場的驚人回收率，我們可以仔細研究Coinbase（NASDAQ：COIN）股票的更廣泛的需求概況，以及為什麼至少是根據定量分析了，為什麼還該退出的時間。

Prior to its big jump, COIN stock had printed a “3-7” sequence: three weeks of upside mixed with seven weeks of downside, with a net negative trajectory across the period.

在大步跳躍之前，硬幣股票印刷了“ 3-7”序列：三週的上空和七個星期的下行方面，整個時期都有淨負軌跡。

What makes this sequence stand out is that in the following week, there’s a 58.82% chance that the price action will be positive.

使這個序列脫穎而出的是，在接下來的一周中，價格行動的機會為58.82％。

To be clear, COIN stock is an inherently volatile idea. If the bears take control of the market, the median loss sits at 4.86%. Thus, while the probabilistic profile favors the optimists, in terms of payout, the risk-reward asymmetry leans bearishly.

需要明確的是，硬幣庫存是一個固有的動蕩的想法。如果熊控制市場，中位損失為4.86％。因此，儘管概率概況偏向於樂觀主義者，但就付費而言，風險獎勵不對稱卻傾向於偏見。

Generally speaking, the stalwarts of industry will more often than not. However, the magnitude of victory is usually quite modest. On the flip side, you have something like COIN stock. It can’t be relied upon to deliver consistent alpha, in large part because of its core business. Being intrinsically tied to cryptocurrencies, COIN’s ebb and flow is massive.

一般而言，行業的堅定者通常會更經常。但是，勝利的幅度通常很謙虛。另一方面，您有類似硬幣庫存的東西。在很大程度上是由於其核心業務，它不能依靠一致的alpha。硬幣的起伏與加密貨幣本質上是巨大的。

In other words, the good times are great; the bad times are utterly terrible

換句話說，美好時光很棒。糟糕的時光完全可怕

Still, the dichotomous nature of Coinbase’s risk-reward profile is what makes the underlying equity so attractive for speculators who deploy quantitative approaches. These are the folks that don’t look at the opinion cycle of financial publications. Instead, they’re laser-focused on empirical signals.

儘管如此，Coinbase的風險回報概況的二分法是使基本權益對部署定量方法的投機者如此有吸引力的原因。這些人不看財務出版物的意見周期。取而代之的是，它們以激光為專注於經驗信號。

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) stock is certainly having a moment in the sun.

Coinbase（NASDAQ：COIN）的股票肯定在陽光下有一刻。

With the inclusion of Coinbase in the S&P 500 and the stunning recovery of the cryptocurrency market, there’s plenty of enthusiasm for the blockchain-focused enterprise.

隨著標準普爾500指數的Coinbase和加密貨幣市場的驚人恢復，人們對以區塊鍊為重點的企業充滿熱情。

However, we can’t ignore the broader demand profile for COIN stock, which has been subject to a negative bias throughout the past period.

但是，我們不能忽略硬幣股票的更廣泛的需求概況，而在過去的時間裡，這一直存在負面偏見。

Since its public market debut, the chance that at any given moment, a one-week long position will end up profitable is only 45.7

自從公共市場首次亮相以來，在任何給定時刻，一個周長的職位最終都只有45.7