Coinbase（NASDAQ：COIN）在标准普尔500中弹出24％

寻求快速分数的交易者从Coinbase（NASDAQ：COIN）获得的贸易商恰好是24％。

In a surprising turn of events, traders who were hoping for a swift recovery in Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) stock after its recent 24% drop may be disappointed. Despite the inclusion of Coinbase in the S&P 500 and the impressive recovery of the cryptocurrency market, the broader demand profile for COIN stock over the past period suggests that it might be time to exit, at least according to quantitative analysis.

令人惊讶的是，希望在最近的24％下降后能够在Coinbase（NASDAQ：COIN）股票中迅速恢复的交易者可能会感到失望。尽管在标准普尔500指数中包含Coinbase和加密货币市场的令人印象深刻的回收率，但在过去时期，硬币库存的需求概况表明，至少根据定量分析，可能是时候退出了。

Now, why am I bothering you with this analysis when you can easily check the charts yourself? Well, it’s all about the small edge and how to sustain it over time. These are the practices that differentiate successful speculators from those who are constantly chasing returns.

现在，当您可以轻松地自己检查图表时，为什么我会为您打扰您呢？好吧，这一切都与小边缘以及如何随着时间的推移维持下去。这些实践将成功的投机者与不断追求回报的人区分开。

As most of you know, I’m not interested in the opinion cycle or chatting about a company’s earnings. That's not helpful when it comes to extracting alpha. When it comes to understanding the business, I provide no more value than the next person’s opinion or insight.

众所周知，我对意见周期或谈论公司的收入不感兴趣。在提取alpha方面，这无济于事。在理解业务时，我提供的价值不超过下一个人的意见或洞察力。

About the only value I can bring to this informational arbitrage is the underlying demand profile and specifically the transition from one behavioral state to another.

我能带给此信息套利的唯一价值是基本需求概况，特别是从一个行为状态到另一种行为状态的过渡。

To put it simply, we can analyze how often a specific pattern in the stock market leads to a positive or negative return. In the case of COIN stock prior to its big jump, we saw a “3-7” sequence: three weeks of upside mixed with seven weeks of downside, with a net negative trajectory across the period.

简而言之，我们可以分析股票市场中特定模式的频率导致正收益或负面回报。就硬币库存而大跳前的情况，我们看到了一个“ 3-7”序列：三周的上行和七个星期的下行方面，整个时期的净负轨迹。

What stands out about this sequence is that in the following week, there’s a 58.82% chance that the price action will be positive.

关于此序列的最突出的是，在接下来的一周中，价格行动有58.82％的机会是正面的。

Now, COIN stock is an inherently volatile idea. If the bears take control of the market, the median loss sits at 4.86%. Thus, while the probabilistic profile favors the optimists, in terms of payout, the risk-reward asymmetry leans bearishly.

现在，硬币库存是一个固有的动荡的想法。如果熊控制市场，中位损失为4.86％。因此，尽管概率概况偏向于乐观主义者，但就付费而言，风险奖励不对称却倾向于偏见。

Generally speaking, the stalwarts of industry will more often than not. However, the magnitude of victory is usually quite modest. On the flip side, you have something like COIN stock. It can’t be relied upon to deliver consistent alpha, in large part because of its core business. Being intrinsically tied to cryptocurrencies, COIN’s ebb and flow is massive.

一般而言，行业的坚定者通常会更经常。但是，胜利的幅度通常很谦虚。另一方面，您有类似硬币库存的东西。在很大程度上是由于其核心业务，它不能依靠一致的alpha。硬币的起伏与加密货币本质上是巨大的。

In other words, the good times are great; the bad times are utterly terrible

换句话说，美好时光很棒。糟糕的时光完全可怕

Still, the dichotomous nature of Coinbase’s risk-reward profile is what makes the underlying equity so attractive for speculators who deploy quantitative approaches. These are the folks that don’t look at the opinion cycle of financial publications. Instead, they’re laser-focused on empirical signals.

尽管如此，Coinbase的风险回报概况的二分法是使基本权益对部署定量方法的投机者如此有吸引力的原因。这些人不看财务出版物的意见周期。取而代之的是，它们以激光为专注于经验信号。

Quite frankly, that’s the only approach that matters (in my opinion).

坦率地说，这是唯一重要的方法（在我看来）。

Now that the dust has settled on COIN stock's inclusion in the S&P 500 and the stunning recovery of the cryptocurrency market, we can take a closer look at the broader demand profile for Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) stock and why it may be time to exit, at least according to quantitative analysis.

既然尘埃已经解决了Coin Stock在标准普尔500标准普尔500中的包含以及加密货币市场的惊人回收率，我们可以仔细研究Coinbase（NASDAQ：COIN）股票的更广泛的需求概况，以及为什么至少是根据定量分析了，为什么还该退出的时间。

Prior to its big jump, COIN stock had printed a “3-7” sequence: three weeks of upside mixed with seven weeks of downside, with a net negative trajectory across the period.

在大步跳跃之前，硬币股票印刷了“ 3-7”序列：三周的上空和七个星期的下行方面，整个时期都有净负轨迹。

What makes this sequence stand out is that in the following week, there’s a 58.82% chance that the price action will be positive.

使这个序列脱颖而出的是，在接下来的一周中，价格行动的机会为58.82％。

To be clear, COIN stock is an inherently volatile idea. If the bears take control of the market, the median loss sits at 4.86%. Thus, while the probabilistic profile favors the optimists, in terms of payout, the risk-reward asymmetry leans bearishly.

需要明确的是，硬币库存是一个固有的动荡的想法。如果熊控制市场，中位损失为4.86％。因此，尽管概率概况偏向于乐观主义者，但就付费而言，风险奖励不对称却倾向于偏见。

Generally speaking, the stalwarts of industry will more often than not. However, the magnitude of victory is usually quite modest. On the flip side, you have something like COIN stock. It can’t be relied upon to deliver consistent alpha, in large part because of its core business. Being intrinsically tied to cryptocurrencies, COIN’s ebb and flow is massive.

一般而言，行业的坚定者通常会更经常。但是，胜利的幅度通常很谦虚。另一方面，您有类似硬币库存的东西。在很大程度上是由于其核心业务，它不能依靠一致的alpha。硬币的起伏与加密货币本质上是巨大的。

In other words, the good times are great; the bad times are utterly terrible

换句话说，美好时光很棒。糟糕的时光完全可怕

Still, the dichotomous nature of Coinbase’s risk-reward profile is what makes the underlying equity so attractive for speculators who deploy quantitative approaches. These are the folks that don’t look at the opinion cycle of financial publications. Instead, they’re laser-focused on empirical signals.

尽管如此，Coinbase的风险回报概况的二分法是使基本权益对部署定量方法的投机者如此有吸引力的原因。这些人不看财务出版物的意见周期。取而代之的是，它们以激光为专注于经验信号。

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) stock is certainly having a moment in the sun.

Coinbase（NASDAQ：COIN）的股票肯定在阳光下有一刻。

With the inclusion of Coinbase in the S&P 500 and the stunning recovery of the cryptocurrency market, there’s plenty of enthusiasm for the blockchain-focused enterprise.

随着标准普尔500指数的Coinbase和加密货币市场的惊人恢复，人们对以区块链为重点的企业充满热情。

However, we can’t ignore the broader demand profile for COIN stock, which has been subject to a negative bias throughout the past period.

但是，我们不能忽略硬币股票的更广泛的需求概况，而在过去的时间里，这一直存在负面偏见。

Since its public market debut, the chance that at any given moment, a one-week long position will end up profitable is only 45.7

自从公共市场首次亮相以来，在任何给定时刻，一个周长的职位最终都只有45.7