COIN 下跌 5% 後是否值得買進？

加密貨幣交易所Coinbase（NASDAQ：COIN）的股價早盤下跌5.1%，此前加密貨幣領域的股票下跌，原因是加密貨幣市場在2024 年11 月大選前幾週開始強勁反彈，勢頭減弱。

Coinbase shares fell sharply on Friday morning after a recent rally in stocks linked to the cryptocurrency market lost steam.

在近期與加密貨幣市場相關的股票上漲失去動力後，Coinbase 股價週五上午大幅下跌。

Coinbase shares fell 5.1% in premarket trading after a recent rally in stocks linked to the cryptocurrency market lost steam as momentum in the crypto market weakened following a strong rally that began in the weeks leading up to the November 2024 elections. Investors had hoped for more favorable regulation under a new administration. Although the incoming Trump administration's victory was initially viewed positively, the market now appears to be searching for new catalysts to sustain its momentum. Additionally, profit-taking by investors may be contributing to the downturn. Notably, Bitcoin—the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization—fell by more than 10% after reaching a record high of $106,000 on December 16, 2024.

Coinbase 股價在盤前交易中下跌 5.1%，此前與加密貨幣市場相關的股票最近的上漲失去了動力，因為加密貨幣市場的勢頭在 2024 年 11 月選舉前幾週開始強勁上漲後減弱。投資者原本希望在新政府的領導下實施更有利的監管。儘管即將上任的川普政府的勝利最初被積極看待，但市場現在似乎正在尋找新的催化劑來維持其勢頭。此外，投資人的獲利了結可能也是造成經濟低迷的原因之一。值得注意的是，比特幣——市值最大的加密貨幣——在 2024 年 12 月 16 日觸及 106,000 美元的歷史新高後下跌了 10% 以上。

Coinbase’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 79 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news to be important but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

Coinbase 的股價波動極大，去年有 79 次漲幅超過 5%。在這種情況下，今天的舉動表明市場認為這一消息很重要，但不會從根本上改變其對該業務的看法。

The previous big move we wrote about was 12 days ago when the stock gained 6.1% on the news that the major indices soared, with the Nasdaq up 1.4%, while the S&P rose 0.7% after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2024 which was in-line with expectations. The CPI rose 0.3% from the previous month, while headline inflation rose 2.7% year on year, nearing the Federal Reserve's 2% target but not quite there yet. The market reaction suggests investors interpreted the report as a signal for the Fed to lower rates, reinforcing expectations of a 0.25% cut at the December 2024 meeting.

我們之前寫到的大動作是在12天前，當時受主要股指飆升的消息影響，該股上漲了6.1%，其中納斯達克指數上漲了1.4%，而在美國勞工統計局公佈消費者價格指數後，標準普爾指數上漲了0.7% 2024 年 11 月消費者物價指數 (CPI) 符合預期。 CPI季漲0.3%，整體通膨年增2.7%，接近聯準會2%的目標，但尚未完全達到。市場反應表明，投資者將該報告解讀為聯準會降息的訊號，強化了聯準會在 2024 年 12 月會議上降息 0.25% 的預期。

As a reminder, the driver of a stock's value is the sum of its future cash flows discounted back to today. The result of lower interest rates, all else equal, is higher stock valuations. This is especially true for higher-growth stocks, such as those in the technology sector, where the current value depends more on cash flows many years out in the future.

提醒一下，股票價值的驅動因素是其未來現金流量折現到今天的總和。在其他條件相同的情況下，利率降低的結果是股票估值較高。對於高成長股票尤其如此，例如科技業的股票，其當前價值更取決於未來多年的現金流。

Coinbase is up 71.3% since the beginning of the year, but at $268.74 per share, it is still trading 21.8% below its 52-week high of $343.62 from December 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Coinbase’s shares at the IPO in April 2021 would now be looking at an investment worth $818.63.

Coinbase 自今年年初以來已上漲71.3%，但以每股268.74 美元的價格計算，仍比2024 年12 月以來的52 週高點343.62 美元低21.8%。股票的投資者現在正在考慮一項價值 818.63 美元的投資。