COIN 下跌 5% 后是否值得买入？

加密货币交易所 Coinbase（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN）的股价早盘下跌 5.1%，此前加密货币领域的股票下跌，原因是加密货币市场在 2024 年 11 月大选前几周开始强劲反弹，势头减弱。

Coinbase shares fell sharply on Friday morning after a recent rally in stocks linked to the cryptocurrency market lost steam.

在近期与加密货币市场相关的股票上涨失去动力后，Coinbase 股价周五上午大幅下跌。

Coinbase shares fell 5.1% in premarket trading after a recent rally in stocks linked to the cryptocurrency market lost steam as momentum in the crypto market weakened following a strong rally that began in the weeks leading up to the November 2024 elections. Investors had hoped for more favorable regulation under a new administration. Although the incoming Trump administration's victory was initially viewed positively, the market now appears to be searching for new catalysts to sustain its momentum. Additionally, profit-taking by investors may be contributing to the downturn. Notably, Bitcoin—the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization—fell by more than 10% after reaching a record high of $106,000 on December 16, 2024.

Coinbase 股价在盘前交易中下跌 5.1%，此前与加密货币市场相关的股票最近的上涨失去了动力，因为加密货币市场的势头在 2024 年 11 月选举前几周开始强劲上涨后减弱。投资者原本希望在新政府的领导下实行更有利的监管。尽管即将上任的特朗普政府的胜利最初被积极看待，但市场现在似乎正在寻找新的催化剂来维持其势头。此外，投资者的获利了结可能也是造成经济低迷的原因之一。值得注意的是，比特币——市值最大的加密货币——在 2024 年 12 月 16 日触及 106,000 美元的历史新高后下跌了 10% 以上。

Coinbase’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 79 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news to be important but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

Coinbase 的股价波动极大，去年有 79 次涨幅超过 5%。在这种情况下，今天的举动表明市场认为这一消息很重要，但不会从根本上改变其对该业务的看法。

The previous big move we wrote about was 12 days ago when the stock gained 6.1% on the news that the major indices soared, with the Nasdaq up 1.4%, while the S&P rose 0.7% after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2024 which was in-line with expectations. The CPI rose 0.3% from the previous month, while headline inflation rose 2.7% year on year, nearing the Federal Reserve's 2% target but not quite there yet. The market reaction suggests investors interpreted the report as a signal for the Fed to lower rates, reinforcing expectations of a 0.25% cut at the December 2024 meeting.

我们之前写到的大动作是在12天前，当时受主要股指飙升的消息影响，该股上涨了6.1%，其中纳斯达克指数上涨了1.4%，而在美国劳工统计局公布消费者价格指数后，标准普尔指数上涨了0.7% 2024 年 11 月消费者物价指数 (CPI) 符合预期。 CPI环比上涨0.3%，总体通胀同比上涨2.7%，接近美联储2%的目标，但尚未完全达到。市场反应表明，投资者将该报告解读为美联储降息的信号，强化了美联储在 2024 年 12 月会议上降息 0.25% 的预期。

As a reminder, the driver of a stock's value is the sum of its future cash flows discounted back to today. The result of lower interest rates, all else equal, is higher stock valuations. This is especially true for higher-growth stocks, such as those in the technology sector, where the current value depends more on cash flows many years out in the future.

提醒一下，股票价值的驱动因素是其未来现金流贴现到今天的总和。在其他条件相同的情况下，利率降低的结果是股票估值更高。对于高增长股票尤其如此，例如科技行业的股票，其当前价值更多地取决于未来多年的现金流。

Coinbase is up 71.3% since the beginning of the year, but at $268.74 per share, it is still trading 21.8% below its 52-week high of $343.62 from December 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Coinbase’s shares at the IPO in April 2021 would now be looking at an investment worth $818.63.

Coinbase 自今年年初以来已上涨 71.3%，但以每股 268.74 美元的价格计算，仍比 2024 年 12 月以来的 52 周高点 343.62 美元低 21.8%。 2021 年 4 月 IPO 时购买了价值 1,000 美元 Coinbase 股票的投资者现在正在考虑一项价值 818.63 美元的投资。