Cathie Wood：破壞性創新是對價值陷阱的最佳對沖

方舟投資創始人兼首席執行官討論了AI，EVS和Crypto中的最新發展，並解釋了為什麼她認為自己的旗艦基金現在是一個深厚的價值投資組合。

Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest, joined Morningstar to discuss her latest report, Big Ideas for 2025, and share her views on artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies, and ARK's strategies in Europe.

ARK Invest的創始人兼首席執行官Cathie Wood加入了Morningstar，討論了她的最新報告《 2025年的大創意》，並分享了她對人工智能，電動汽車，加密貨幣和方舟在歐洲的策略的看法。

Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest, joined Morningstar in a wide-ranging interview, covering her latest report Big Ideas for 2025, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies, and ARK's strategies in Europe.

ARK Invest的創始人兼首席執行官Cathie Wood加入Morningstar進行了廣泛的採訪，涵蓋了她的最新報告，有關2025年，人工智能，電動汽車，加密貨幣和ARK在歐洲的策略的最新報告。

Cathie's latest report outlines her strongest investment convictions, with artificial intelligence being the biggest one. A couple of weeks ago, Chinese company DeepSeek launched its much cheaper AI, sending shock waves through the market.

凱西（Cathie）的最新報告概述了她最強烈的投資信念，人工智能是最大的投資信念。幾週前，中國公司DeepSeek推出了更便宜的AI，在市場上引起了衝擊波。

Cathie and Morningstar's Valerio Baselli discussed the lesson learned from this and whether it could be a game changer for the sector.

Cathie和Morningstar的Valerio Baselli討論了從中學到的教訓，以及它是否可以改變該行業的遊戲規則。

Cathie said that they looked at DeepSeek's model and learned that it is moving down the cost curve associated with this new technology at a rapid rate, but not much different from the rate at which OpenAI and Anthropic are also riding down the cost curve.

凱西說，他們研究了DeepSeek的模型，並得知它正在以迅速的速度向下移動與這項新技術相關的成本曲線，但與OpenAI和Anthropic也降低成本曲線的速度並沒有太大不同。

She added that inference models, the cost to develop them, are dropping 85% to 95% per year.

她補充說，推理模型（開發它們的成本）每年下降85％至95％。

Cathie said that the big question with DeepSeek is whether it really cost $6 million to develop that model. She said that is up for grabs, compared to ten times that or more from OpenAI and Anthropic.

凱茜說，DeepSeek的最大問題是開發該模型是否真的花費了600萬美元。她說，這是要抓住的，而Openai和Anthropic則是十倍或更多。

She added that there is a big question mark there, because we don’t know how much pre-training there was done before developing that model on a high-end workstation.

她補充說，那裡有一個很大的問號，因為我們不知道在高端工作站開發該模型之前已經進行了多少預培訓。

Cathie said that the drama was really around, wait a minute, is it going to cost much less because AI model development is moving to the edge to high end workstations instead of cloud providers? That’s where the question marks are. And we don’t have all the answers. But in terms of the cost declines that we’re seeing both on training and inference, DeepSeek is just following that pattern.

凱西說，這部戲確實存在，等等一分鐘，因為AI模型開發正在轉向高端工作站而不是雲提供商，這會降低成本要少得多嗎？那就是問號所在。而且我們沒有所有答案。但是，就我們在培訓和推理上看到的成本下降而言，DeepSeek只是遵循這種模式。

Baselli then asked Cathie about the consequences on her investment strategy and where she sees value right now across the artificial intelligence industry.

然後，巴塞利（Baselli）詢問了凱西（Cathie）對她的投資策略的後果，以及她現在在整個人工智能行業看到的價值。

Cathie said that it all started with hardware, Nvidia (NVDA) and TSM (TSM), and they’re still involved with those in a number of our funds.

凱茜說，這一切始於硬件，NVIDIA（NVDA）和TSM（TSM），他們仍然參與我們許多資金的人。

She added that they have been evolving their portfolios in terms of weightings, towards software and what we call embodied AI.

她補充說，他們一直在將投資組合從權重，軟件和我們所謂的體現AI中發展。

Cathie said that software is more platform-as-a-service, like Palantir (PLTR), and embodied AI would be Tesla (TSLA), moving towards autonomous mobility, which could not happen without artificial intelligence.

Cathie說，軟件是諸如Palantir（PLTR）之類的平台服務，而體現的AI將是Tesla（TSLA），它朝著自動移動性邁進，如果沒有人工智能，這種情況就不會發生。

She added that also, importantly, they’ve been focused on the multi-omics or genomic space, where the convergence between sequencing technologies, artificial intelligence and Crispr gene editing, that convergence is beginning to cure diseases.

她還補充說，重要的是，它們一直集中在多詞或基因組空間上，在這些空間中，測序技術，人工智能和CRISPR基因編輯之間的融合開始融合開始治癒疾病。

Cathie said that while the most, while the biggest opportunity in the next 5 to 10 years from a revenue generation point of view might be autonomous mobility, the most profound applications, we think, could be in the health care space as we move towards curing disease and increasing human longevity.

凱西說，儘管從收入生成的角度來看，在未來5到10年中，最大的機會可能是自主流動性，但隨著我們邁向治療，我們認為最深刻的應用可能是在醫療保健領域中疾病和人類壽命的增加。

Speaking about that, when Baselli and Cathie spoke almost a year ago, she was very bullish on electric vehicles and especially robo-taxis.

談到這一點，當Baselli和Cathie大約一年前講話時，她非常看好電動汽車，尤其是機器人稅。

Since then, several car makers have been rethinking their commitments to EVs, as sales have in general failed to meet expectations, and there has also been a shift in policies concerning electrification of cars, for example in the US.

從那時起，幾家汽車製造商一直在重新考慮他們對電動汽車的承諾，因為總體上未能滿足期望，並且在美國，關於汽車電氣化的政策也發生了變化。

Baselli asked Cathie if her view on that has changed and, if so, how.

巴塞利（Baselli）問凱蒂（Cathie）她對此的看法是否發生了變化，如果是這樣。

Cathie said that electric vehicles are facing macro headwinds, just like internal combustion engine vehicles.

凱茜說，電動汽車就像內燃機車輛一樣，面對巨大的逆風。

She added that if you look globally last year, I believe electric vehicle sales were up 12% while internal combustion engine related sales were down by 1%.

她補充說，如果您去年在全球範圍內，我相信電動汽車銷售額增長了12％，而內燃機相關的銷售額下降了1％。

Cathie said that if you look at the gas-powered vehicle sector, as recently as 2019, gas-powered vehicle sales globally accounted for 92% of all sales. Today, they account for only 72% of sales.

凱西說，如果您查看燃氣動力的車輛行業，直到2019年，全球燃氣動力的車輛銷售額將佔所有銷售額的92％。今天，他們僅佔銷售額的72％。

She added that they do think the shift towards electric, and a bit of a jog towards hybrid, certainly here in the US, but I think that was true around the world, might be distorting the pure battery electric vehicle space.

她補充說，他們確實認為向電動的轉變，並且在美國當然可以慢跑，但我認為世界各地確實如此，可能正在扭曲純電池電動汽車空間。

Cathie said that they do think as costs associated with electric vehicles continue to fall, and we think they will, Tesla is rumored to debut a car for somewhere in the $25,000 range this year. And robo-taxis, we think, could drop to a cost of

凱西說，他們確實認為，隨著電動汽車的成本繼續下降，我們認為他們會認為，特斯拉被謠傳在今年的25,000美元範圍內首次亮相一輛汽車。我們認為，機器人稅率可能會降至