一種新的Cardano價格風險模型表明，ADA的牛市尚未開始

投入：新的Cardano價格風險模式表明，儘管有早期的看漲跡象，ADA的牛市尚未開始。

Despite early-stage bullish signs, a new Cardano price risk model suggests that the bull market for ADA has not yet begun.

儘管早期看漲跡象，但新的Cardano價格風險模式表明，ADA的牛市尚未開始。

Cardano’s price action has shifted measurably in recent days, hinting at a possible change in market sentiment. The price of the token began the week at around $0.70, and by May 6, it had dropped to a local low of around $0.64.

Cardano的價格行動在最近幾天有所變化，暗示了市場情緒可能發生變化。代幣的價格開始於本週約0.70美元，到5月6日，它已下降到當地低點約0.64美元。

However, in the last 24 hours, the token rose by 4.7%. Cardano’s weekly and 14-day gains stand at 2.8% and 4.9%, respectively.

但是，在過去的24小時內，令牌上升了4.7％。 Cardano的每周和14天的收益分別為2.8％和4.9％。

While this move reflects a strong short-term recovery, technical and on-chain indicators suggest that broader bullish activity could still be in the early stages.

儘管此舉反映了強大的短期恢復，但技術和鏈上的指標表明，更廣泛的看漲活動仍可能處於早期階段。

Model Suggesting Favorable Entry Zone

暗示有利進入區的模型

Evaluating current ADA market conditions using a custom risk model, Crypto Capital Venture founder Dan Gambardello observed that Cardano’s Long-Term Risk Score currently stands at 37, categorized as a “Moderate Buy.”

Crypto Capital Venture創始人Dan Gambardello使用自定義風險模型評估當前的ADA市場條件，觀察到Cardano的長期風險評分目前為37，被歸類為“中等買入”。

The system classifies risk levels from low to high, with lower values typically aligning with earlier phases of market cycles. For instance, Cardano’s risk level approached the 50s and 60s during its 2017–2018 and 2020–2021 bull runs, both of which resulted in parabolic price movements.

該系統將風險水平從低到高分類，較低的值通常與較早的市場週期階段保持一致。例如，Cardano的風險水平在2017 - 2018年和2020- 2021年的公牛運行期間接近50年代和60年代，這兩者都導致了拋物線價格變動。

This model also highlights these earlier bull phases with red zones on the Historical Risk Chart, highlighting periods of overextension. Cardano reached over $1 during the 2017 cycle and hit a peak above $3 in 2021. In both cases, the risk level started in the 30s, consolidated, and then rose sharply, indicating momentum buildup.

該模型還在歷史風險圖表上強調了這些早期的公牛階段，並在歷史風險圖表上突出了這些階段，突出了過度擴張的時期。 Cardano在2017年周期期間達到了1美元以上，並在2021年達到3美元以上的峰值。在這兩種情況下，風險水平在30年代開始，合併，然後急劇上升，表明勢頭積累。

Currently trading at around $0.71, ADA remains far below its 2021 all-time high of $3.09. According to Gambardello, this lower price point, combined with a moderate risk score, is historically favorable for entry. In his view, the Cardano bull market hasn’t begun yet, rather than being near its end. Furthermore, compared with Ethereum, which has a lower Long Term Risk Score of 24, Gambardello sees ADA as better positioned structurally.

ADA目前的交易價格約為0.71美元，遠低於其2021年曆史最高高點3.09美元。根據Gambardello的說法，這種較低的價格與中等風險評分相結合，歷史上有利於進入。在他看來，卡爾達諾牛市還沒有開始，而不是快要結束。此外，與以太坊相比，長期風險評分較低的以太坊相比，Gambardello認為ADA在結構上是更好的位置。

The analyst has also emphasized the importance of preparing exit strategies.

分析師還強調了準備退出策略的重要性。

Cardano Technical Barriers Remain Intact

Cardano技術障礙保持完整

Meanwhile, analyst Ali Martinez presented a 4-hour candlestick chart on X, illustrating a descending parallel channel that has guided ADA’s movement for the past two weeks.

同時，分析師阿里·馬丁內斯（Ali Martinez）在X上介紹了4小時的燭台圖表，說明了一個下降的平行渠道，該頻道在過去兩週內引導了Ada的運動。

The chart shows that the price has respected the upper and lower channel boundaries.

圖表顯示，價格已尊重上下通道邊界。

Repeated attempts to break above the resistance at approximately $0.74 and $0.72 failed to confirm an upward breakout. Attempts to break support at $0.67 and again below $0.65 also failed.

反复嘗試以大約0.74美元的價格突破阻力，而0.72美元未能確認突破。試圖打破$ 0.67的支持，並且再次低於$ 0.65。

The most recent resistance touch occurred near $0.71.

最近的阻力觸摸發生在$ 0.71。

However, Martinez noted that ADA is preparing for a breakout. A confirmed move above the upper channel line could trigger a rise toward the $0.80 level. For now, resistance remains firm, keeping the price within the established downtrend.

但是，馬丁內斯指出，艾達正在為突破做準備。在上通道線上的確認移動可能會觸發$ 0.80水平的上升。目前，抵抗仍然堅定，將價格保持在既定的下降趨勢之內。

On-Chain Metrics Reflect Network-Wide Growth

鏈上指標反映了整個網絡增長

While price remains range-bound, data from IntoTheBlock reveals a notable increase in network activity. New addresses climbed by 4.79% in the past seven days, while active addresses rose by 11.99%.

儘管價格仍然存在，但來自intotheblock的數據揭示了網絡活動的顯著增加。在過去的七天中，新的地址攀升了4.79％，而主動地址上升了11.99％。

Zero balance addresses, which often represent renewed user engagement or address reuse, increased by 12.26%. These figures suggest a growing user base and heightened interest in Cardano’s ecosystem, which typically precedes bullish runs.

零餘額地址通常代表新的用戶參與度或地址重用，增加了12.26％。這些數字表明用戶群不斷增長，並提高了對Cardano的生態系統的興趣，該生態系統通常是在看漲之前的。