A new Cardano price risk model suggests that the bull market for ADA has not yet begun

input: A new Cardano price risk model suggests that the bull market for ADA has not yet begun, despite early-stage bullish signs.

Despite early-stage bullish signs, a new Cardano price risk model suggests that the bull market for ADA has not yet begun.

Cardano’s price action has shifted measurably in recent days, hinting at a possible change in market sentiment. The price of the token began the week at around $0.70, and by May 6, it had dropped to a local low of around $0.64.

However, in the last 24 hours, the token rose by 4.7%. Cardano’s weekly and 14-day gains stand at 2.8% and 4.9%, respectively.

While this move reflects a strong short-term recovery, technical and on-chain indicators suggest that broader bullish activity could still be in the early stages.

Model Suggesting Favorable Entry Zone

Evaluating current ADA market conditions using a custom risk model, Crypto Capital Venture founder Dan Gambardello observed that Cardano’s Long-Term Risk Score currently stands at 37, categorized as a “Moderate Buy.”

The system classifies risk levels from low to high, with lower values typically aligning with earlier phases of market cycles. For instance, Cardano’s risk level approached the 50s and 60s during its 2017–2018 and 2020–2021 bull runs, both of which resulted in parabolic price movements.

This model also highlights these earlier bull phases with red zones on the Historical Risk Chart, highlighting periods of overextension. Cardano reached over $1 during the 2017 cycle and hit a peak above $3 in 2021. In both cases, the risk level started in the 30s, consolidated, and then rose sharply, indicating momentum buildup.

Currently trading at around $0.71, ADA remains far below its 2021 all-time high of $3.09. According to Gambardello, this lower price point, combined with a moderate risk score, is historically favorable for entry. In his view, the Cardano bull market hasn’t begun yet, rather than being near its end. Furthermore, compared with Ethereum, which has a lower Long Term Risk Score of 24, Gambardello sees ADA as better positioned structurally.

The analyst has also emphasized the importance of preparing exit strategies.

Cardano Technical Barriers Remain Intact

Meanwhile, analyst Ali Martinez presented a 4-hour candlestick chart on X, illustrating a descending parallel channel that has guided ADA’s movement for the past two weeks.

The chart shows that the price has respected the upper and lower channel boundaries.

Repeated attempts to break above the resistance at approximately $0.74 and $0.72 failed to confirm an upward breakout. Attempts to break support at $0.67 and again below $0.65 also failed.

The most recent resistance touch occurred near $0.71.

However, Martinez noted that ADA is preparing for a breakout. A confirmed move above the upper channel line could trigger a rise toward the $0.80 level. For now, resistance remains firm, keeping the price within the established downtrend.

On-Chain Metrics Reflect Network-Wide Growth

While price remains range-bound, data from IntoTheBlock reveals a notable increase in network activity. New addresses climbed by 4.79% in the past seven days, while active addresses rose by 11.99%.

Zero balance addresses, which often represent renewed user engagement or address reuse, increased by 12.26%. These figures suggest a growing user base and heightened interest in Cardano’s ecosystem, which typically precedes bullish runs.