一种新的Cardano价格风险模型表明，ADA的牛市尚未开始

投入：新的Cardano价格风险模式表明，尽管有早期的看涨迹象，ADA的牛市尚未开始。

Despite early-stage bullish signs, a new Cardano price risk model suggests that the bull market for ADA has not yet begun.

尽管早期看涨迹象，但新的Cardano价格风险模式表明，ADA的牛市尚未开始。

Cardano’s price action has shifted measurably in recent days, hinting at a possible change in market sentiment. The price of the token began the week at around $0.70, and by May 6, it had dropped to a local low of around $0.64.

Cardano的价格行动在最近几天有所变化，暗示了市场情绪可能发生变化。代币的价格开始于本周约0.70美元，到5月6日，它已下降到当地低点约0.64美元。

However, in the last 24 hours, the token rose by 4.7%. Cardano’s weekly and 14-day gains stand at 2.8% and 4.9%, respectively.

但是，在过去的24小时内，令牌上升了4.7％。 Cardano的每周和14天的收益分别为2.8％和4.9％。

While this move reflects a strong short-term recovery, technical and on-chain indicators suggest that broader bullish activity could still be in the early stages.

尽管此举反映了强大的短期恢复，但技术和链上的指标表明，更广泛的看涨活动仍可能处于早期阶段。

Model Suggesting Favorable Entry Zone

暗示有利进入区的模型

Evaluating current ADA market conditions using a custom risk model, Crypto Capital Venture founder Dan Gambardello observed that Cardano’s Long-Term Risk Score currently stands at 37, categorized as a “Moderate Buy.”

Crypto Capital Venture创始人Dan Gambardello使用自定义风险模型评估当前的ADA市场条件，观察到Cardano的长期风险评分目前为37，被归类为“中等买入”。

The system classifies risk levels from low to high, with lower values typically aligning with earlier phases of market cycles. For instance, Cardano’s risk level approached the 50s and 60s during its 2017–2018 and 2020–2021 bull runs, both of which resulted in parabolic price movements.

该系统将风险水平从低到高分类，较低的值通常与较早的市场周期阶段保持一致。例如，Cardano的风险水平在2017 - 2018年和2020- 2021年的公牛运行期间接近50年代和60年代，这两者都导致了抛物线价格变动。

This model also highlights these earlier bull phases with red zones on the Historical Risk Chart, highlighting periods of overextension. Cardano reached over $1 during the 2017 cycle and hit a peak above $3 in 2021. In both cases, the risk level started in the 30s, consolidated, and then rose sharply, indicating momentum buildup.

该模型还在历史风险图表上强调了这些早期的公牛阶段，并在历史风险图表上突出了这些阶段，突出了过度扩张的时期。 Cardano在2017年周期期间达到了1美元以上，并在2021年达到3美元以上的峰值。在这两种情况下，风险水平在30年代开始，合并，然后急剧上升，表明势头积累。

Currently trading at around $0.71, ADA remains far below its 2021 all-time high of $3.09. According to Gambardello, this lower price point, combined with a moderate risk score, is historically favorable for entry. In his view, the Cardano bull market hasn’t begun yet, rather than being near its end. Furthermore, compared with Ethereum, which has a lower Long Term Risk Score of 24, Gambardello sees ADA as better positioned structurally.

ADA目前的交易价格约为0.71美元，远低于其2021年历史最高高点3.09美元。根据Gambardello的说法，这种较低的价格与中等风险评分相结合，历史上有利于进入。在他看来，卡尔达诺牛市还没有开始，而不是快要结束。此外，与以太坊相比，长期风险评分较低的以太坊相比，Gambardello认为ADA在结构上是更好的位置。

The analyst has also emphasized the importance of preparing exit strategies.

分析师还强调了准备退出策略的重要性。

Cardano Technical Barriers Remain Intact

Cardano技术障碍保持完整

Meanwhile, analyst Ali Martinez presented a 4-hour candlestick chart on X, illustrating a descending parallel channel that has guided ADA’s movement for the past two weeks.

同时，分析师阿里·马丁内斯（Ali Martinez）在X上介绍了4小时的烛台图表，说明了一个下降的平行渠道，该频道在过去两周内引导了Ada的运动。

The chart shows that the price has respected the upper and lower channel boundaries.

图表显示，价格已尊重上下通道边界。

Repeated attempts to break above the resistance at approximately $0.74 and $0.72 failed to confirm an upward breakout. Attempts to break support at $0.67 and again below $0.65 also failed.

反复尝试以大约0.74美元的价格突破阻力，而0.72美元未能确认突破。试图打破$ 0.67的支持，并且再次低于$ 0.65。

The most recent resistance touch occurred near $0.71.

最近的阻力触摸发生在$ 0.71。

However, Martinez noted that ADA is preparing for a breakout. A confirmed move above the upper channel line could trigger a rise toward the $0.80 level. For now, resistance remains firm, keeping the price within the established downtrend.

但是，马丁内斯指出，艾达正在为突破做准备。在上通道线上的确认移动可能会触发$ 0.80水平的上升。目前，抵抗仍然坚定，将价格保持在既定的下降趋势之内。

On-Chain Metrics Reflect Network-Wide Growth

链上指标反映了整个网络增长

While price remains range-bound, data from IntoTheBlock reveals a notable increase in network activity. New addresses climbed by 4.79% in the past seven days, while active addresses rose by 11.99%.

尽管价格仍然存在，但来自intotheblock的数据揭示了网络活动的显着增加。在过去的七天中，新的地址攀升了4.79％，而主动地址上升了11.99％。

Zero balance addresses, which often represent renewed user engagement or address reuse, increased by 12.26%. These figures suggest a growing user base and heightened interest in Cardano’s ecosystem, which typically precedes bullish runs.

零余额地址通常代表新的用户参与度或地址重用，增加了12.26％。这些数字表明用户群不断增长，并提高了对Cardano的生态系统的兴趣，该生态系统通常是在看涨之前的。