Cardano創始人查爾斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）預測，由於分裂和過時的技術，以太坊可能會在15年內失敗。

Cardano創始人查爾斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）以大膽的預測重新點燃了加密貨幣空間中的辯論：在未來十年半內，以太坊可能會過時。

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has set the crypto community abuzz with a surprising prediction: Ethereum could meet a bleak fate within the next 15 years.

Cardano創始人查爾斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）以令人驚訝的預測設置了加密貨幣社區的垃圾：以太坊在未來15年內可能會遇到慘淡的命運。

In a recent Ask-Me-Anything (AMA) session, Hoskinson, who co-founded Ethereum before departing to launch Cardano, expressed his view that Ethereum is heading for a slow decline, becoming another casualty of technological change like BlackBerry or Myspace.

在最近的Ask-me-thing（AMA）會議中，霍斯金森（Hoskinson）在出發前往Cardano之前共同創立以太坊的霍斯金森（Ethereum）表示，他的觀點表明，以太坊正在緩慢下降，成為黑莓或MySpace等技術變革的另一種傷害。

“It’s a brilliant project,” remarked Hoskinson of Ethereum. “But it’s just a victim of its own success—like Myspace or BlackBerry.”

以太坊的霍斯金森說：“這是一個出色的項目。” “但這只是自己成功的受害者，例如Myspace或Blackberry。”

However, despite acknowledging the strengths of the Ethereum ecosystem, Hoskinson raised concerns about the long-term implications of its decentralized architecture and the growing fragmentation of its ecosystem.

然而，儘管承認以太坊生態系統的優勢，霍斯金森仍對其分散建築的長期含義以及其生態系統的日益增長的分裂表示擔憂。

As more users and developers gravitate towards Bitcoin DeFi and Solana, Hoskinson noted that Ethereum's core user base and developer community may shrink over time, impacting the platform's network effects.

隨著越來越多的用戶和開發人員傾向於比特幣Defi和Solana，Hoskinson指出，以太坊的核心用戶群和開發人員社區可能會隨著時間的流逝而收縮，從而影響平台的網絡效果。

“The layer twos will continue to suckle out all of the alpha,” he said, adding that "then people will start fighting."

他說：“兩層將繼續吮吸所有的alpha。”他補充說：“然後人們將開始戰鬥。”

Without a common governance framework, Ethereum could split into a collection of semi-autonomous systems, diminishing the protocol's network effects and rendering it less durable in the long run, he warned.

他警告說，如果沒有共同的治理框架，以太坊可能會分成一系列半自治系統，從而減少了協議的網絡效果，從長遠來看，它的持久性降低了。

His comments come as Ethereum faces significant challenges, including the need to scale its network and maintain its security in a rapidly changing technological landscape.

當以太坊面臨重大挑戰時，他的評論就會出現，包括需要擴展其網絡並在快速變化的技術景觀中保持其安全性。

Layer 2s siphon value from Ethereum

以太坊的第2層虹吸值

On the topic of scaling solutions, Hoskinson argued that Ethereum's increasing reliance on layer 2 networks is undermining the platform's alpha and driving users toward competing ecosystems.

關於擴展解決方案的主題，霍斯金森認為，以太坊對第2層網絡的依賴日益嚴重，正在破壞平台的alpha，並推動用戶進入競爭的生態系統。

"The layer twos are essentially siphoning value out of the main chain, concentrating it in smaller, more specialized domains," explained an analyst at Benzinga.

Benzinga的一位分析師解釋說：“兩層層本質上是從主鏈中汲取的值，將其集中在較小，更專業的域中。”

"This hyper-competitive landscape could lead to a fragmentation of the Ethereum ecosystem, as different layer twos develop their own governance structures, user bases, and developer communities."

“這種超競爭性的景觀可能導致以太坊生態系統的分散，因為不同的層二層發展了自己的治理結構，用戶群和開發人員社區。”

However, despite his critical tone, Hoskinson remains a strong believer in the innovations that have shaped the Ethereum blockchain.

然而，儘管霍斯金森（Hoskinson）的語調鮮明，但仍然堅信塑造以太坊區塊鏈的創新。

"I think it's an amazing project, and it's brought a lot of good to the world," he said, reflecting on his early contributions to the development of the Ethereum virtual machine and programming language.

他說：“我認為這是一個了不起的項目，這給世界帶來了很多好處。”

But as technology evolves and the needs of Web3 users become more sophisticated, Hoskinson believes that Ethereum may struggle to keep pace, especially compared to newer protocols like Cardano, which are designed from the ground up for modularity, interoperability, and high-throughput applications.

但是，隨著技術的發展和Web3用戶的需求變得越來越複雜，Hoskinson認為，以太坊可能難以保持步伐，尤其是與諸如Cardano之類的新協議相比，與Cardano這樣的新協議相比，該協議是從頭開始設計的，以模塊化，互操作性和高通量應用。

"I think it's going to be a slow process, and it's not going to be easy," said Hoskinson, contemplating the challenges that lie ahead for Ethereum in the coming decade.

霍斯金森說：“我認為這將是一個緩慢的過程，這並不容易。”考慮到未來十年，以太坊面臨的挑戰。

"But I think it's possible that we could see Ethereum become less relevant over time, as users and developers seek out newer, more efficient platforms."

“但是我認為，隨著用戶和開發人員尋求更新，更有效的平台，我們可能會看到以太坊隨著時間的流逝而變得不那麼重要。”

Comparing Cardano and Ethereum

比較Cardano和以太坊

In his analysis, Hoskinson highlighted key differences between Cardano and Ethereum, particularly in their approaches to smart contracts and virtual machines.

在他的分析中，霍斯金森強調了卡爾達諾和以太坊之間的關鍵差異，尤其是在他們的智能合同和虛擬機的方法中。

While Cardano focuses on a more robust and easily maintainable codebase, he claimed that Ethereum's virtual machine is "poorly written" and has led to vulnerabilities and integration difficulties.

儘管Cardano專注於更強大且易於維護的代碼庫，但他聲稱以太坊的虛擬機是“寫得不好的”，並帶來了脆弱性和整合困難。

"It's like comparing a well-crafted Swiss watch to a Rube Goldberg machine," he quipped, emphasizing the contrasting levels of complexity and efficiency in the two protocols.

他打趣道：“這就像將精心製作的瑞士手錶與Rube Goldberg機器進行比較，”他強調了這兩種協議中的複雜性和效率的對比程度。

Despite his strong opinions, Hoskinson remains a respected figurehead in the cryptocurrency community, and his insights into the strengths and weaknesses of leading blockchain platforms are sure to spark lively discussion among crypto enthusiasts.

儘管他有強烈的看法，但霍斯金森仍然是加密貨幣社區中受人尊敬的人物，他對領先區塊鏈平台的優勢和劣勢的見解肯定會引發加密助人愛好者的生動討論。

As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, the long-term fate of Ethereum remains a subject of speculation and debate.

隨著加密貨幣市場的不斷發展，以太坊的長期命運仍然是猜測和辯論的主題。

Only time will tell whether the protocol can overcome the technical and economic challenges that lie ahead and retain its position as a leading force in the Web3 revolution.

只有時間會證明該協議是否能夠克服未來的技術和經濟挑戰，並保留其作為Web3革命中領先力量的地位。