Cardano创始人查尔斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）预测，由于分裂和过时的技术，以太坊可能会在15年内失败。

Cardano创始人查尔斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）以大胆的预测重新点燃了加密货币空间中的辩论：在未来十年半内，以太坊可能会过时。

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has set the crypto community abuzz with a surprising prediction: Ethereum could meet a bleak fate within the next 15 years.

Cardano创始人查尔斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）以令人惊讶的预测设置了加密货币社区的垃圾：以太坊在未来15年内可能会遇到惨淡的命运。

In a recent Ask-Me-Anything (AMA) session, Hoskinson, who co-founded Ethereum before departing to launch Cardano, expressed his view that Ethereum is heading for a slow decline, becoming another casualty of technological change like BlackBerry or Myspace.

在最近的Ask-me-thing（AMA）会议中，霍斯金森（Hoskinson）在出发前往Cardano之前共同创立以太坊的霍斯金森（Ethereum）表示，他的观点表明，以太坊正在缓慢下降，成为黑莓或MySpace等技术变革的另一种伤害。

“It’s a brilliant project,” remarked Hoskinson of Ethereum. “But it’s just a victim of its own success—like Myspace or BlackBerry.”

以太坊的霍斯金森说：“这是一个出色的项目。” “但这只是自己成功的受害者，例如Myspace或Blackberry。”

However, despite acknowledging the strengths of the Ethereum ecosystem, Hoskinson raised concerns about the long-term implications of its decentralized architecture and the growing fragmentation of its ecosystem.

然而，尽管承认以太坊生态系统的优势，霍斯金森仍对其分散建筑的长期含义以及其生态系统的日益增长的分裂表示担忧。

As more users and developers gravitate towards Bitcoin DeFi and Solana, Hoskinson noted that Ethereum's core user base and developer community may shrink over time, impacting the platform's network effects.

随着越来越多的用户和开发人员倾向于比特币Defi和Solana，Hoskinson指出，以太坊的核心用户群和开发人员社区可能会随着时间的流逝而收缩，从而影响平台的网络效果。

“The layer twos will continue to suckle out all of the alpha,” he said, adding that "then people will start fighting."

他说：“两层将继续吮吸所有的alpha。”他补充说：“然后人们将开始战斗。”

Without a common governance framework, Ethereum could split into a collection of semi-autonomous systems, diminishing the protocol's network effects and rendering it less durable in the long run, he warned.

他警告说，如果没有共同的治理框架，以太坊可能会分成一系列半自治系统，从而减少了协议的网络效果，从长远来看，它的持久性降低了。

His comments come as Ethereum faces significant challenges, including the need to scale its network and maintain its security in a rapidly changing technological landscape.

当以太坊面临重大挑战时，他的评论就会出现，包括需要扩展其网络并在快速变化的技术景观中保持其安全性。

Layer 2s siphon value from Ethereum

以太坊的第2层虹吸值

On the topic of scaling solutions, Hoskinson argued that Ethereum's increasing reliance on layer 2 networks is undermining the platform's alpha and driving users toward competing ecosystems.

关于扩展解决方案的主题，霍斯金森认为，以太坊对第2层网络的依赖日益严重，正在破坏平台的alpha，并推动用户进入竞争的生态系统。

"The layer twos are essentially siphoning value out of the main chain, concentrating it in smaller, more specialized domains," explained an analyst at Benzinga.

Benzinga的一位分析师解释说：“两层层本质上是从主链中汲取的值，将其集中在较小，更专业的域中。”

"This hyper-competitive landscape could lead to a fragmentation of the Ethereum ecosystem, as different layer twos develop their own governance structures, user bases, and developer communities."

“这种超竞争性的景观可能导致以太坊生态系统的分散，因为不同的层二层发展了自己的治理结构，用户群和开发人员社区。”

However, despite his critical tone, Hoskinson remains a strong believer in the innovations that have shaped the Ethereum blockchain.

然而，尽管霍斯金森（Hoskinson）的语调鲜明，但仍然坚信塑造以太坊区块链的创新。

"I think it's an amazing project, and it's brought a lot of good to the world," he said, reflecting on his early contributions to the development of the Ethereum virtual machine and programming language.

他说：“我认为这是一个了不起的项目，这给世界带来了很多好处。”

But as technology evolves and the needs of Web3 users become more sophisticated, Hoskinson believes that Ethereum may struggle to keep pace, especially compared to newer protocols like Cardano, which are designed from the ground up for modularity, interoperability, and high-throughput applications.

但是，随着技术的发展和Web3用户的需求变得越来越复杂，Hoskinson认为，以太坊可能难以保持步伐，尤其是与诸如Cardano之类的新协议相比，与Cardano这样的新协议相比，该协议是从头开始设计的，以模块化，互操作性和高通量应用。

"I think it's going to be a slow process, and it's not going to be easy," said Hoskinson, contemplating the challenges that lie ahead for Ethereum in the coming decade.

霍斯金森说：“我认为这将是一个缓慢的过程，这并不容易。”考虑到未来十年，以太坊面临的挑战。

"But I think it's possible that we could see Ethereum become less relevant over time, as users and developers seek out newer, more efficient platforms."

“但是我认为，随着用户和开发人员寻求更新，更有效的平台，我们可能会看到以太坊随着时间的流逝而变得不那么重要。”

Comparing Cardano and Ethereum

比较Cardano和以太坊

In his analysis, Hoskinson highlighted key differences between Cardano and Ethereum, particularly in their approaches to smart contracts and virtual machines.

在他的分析中，霍斯金森强调了卡尔达诺和以太坊之间的关键差异，尤其是在他们的智能合同和虚拟机的方法中。

While Cardano focuses on a more robust and easily maintainable codebase, he claimed that Ethereum's virtual machine is "poorly written" and has led to vulnerabilities and integration difficulties.

尽管Cardano专注于更强大且易于维护的代码库，但他声称以太坊的虚拟机是“写得不好的”，并带来了脆弱性和整合困难。

"It's like comparing a well-crafted Swiss watch to a Rube Goldberg machine," he quipped, emphasizing the contrasting levels of complexity and efficiency in the two protocols.

他打趣道：“这就像将精心制作的瑞士手表与Rube Goldberg机器进行比较，”他强调了这两种协议中的复杂性和效率的对比程度。

Despite his strong opinions, Hoskinson remains a respected figurehead in the cryptocurrency community, and his insights into the strengths and weaknesses of leading blockchain platforms are sure to spark lively discussion among crypto enthusiasts.

尽管他有强烈的看法，但霍斯金森仍然是加密货币社区中受人尊敬的人物，他对领先区块链平台的优势和劣势的见解肯定会引发加密助人爱好者的生动讨论。

As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, the long-term fate of Ethereum remains a subject of speculation and debate.

随着加密货币市场的不断发展，以太坊的长期命运仍然是猜测和辩论的主题。

Only time will tell whether the protocol can overcome the technical and economic challenges that lie ahead and retain its position as a leading force in the Web3 revolution.

只有时间会证明该协议是否能够克服未来的技术和经济挑战，并保留其作为Web3革命中领先力量的地位。