BTC 策略讓 MicroStrategy 的納斯達克指數上市受到質疑

12 月 10 日，我們目睹了加密貨幣市場的一場巨大的去槓桿化事件，超過 15 億美元的多頭敞口被抹去

Crypto markets saw a huge de-leveraging event on the 10th of December, with over $1.5 billion US in long exposure being wiped off the market books.

12 月 10 日，加密貨幣市場發生了一場大規模的去槓桿化事件，超過 15 億美元的長期風險敞口從市場帳簿中消失。

This event serves as a prime example of market conditions where true demand (spot buyers) was absent, leading to FOMO chasing leverage traders betting on higher prices. This is a common occurrence during bull markets.

這一事件是市場狀況的一個典型例子，在這種情況下，真正的需求（現貨買家）不存在，導致「害怕錯過」（FOMO）追逐槓桿交易者押注更高的價格。這是牛市期間常見的情況。

We have already seen a substantial recovery, with Bitcoin at this current time trading back above $100,000 US.

我們已經看到了大幅復甦，比特幣目前已回到 10 萬美元以上。

While it would have been painful to be in the camp of the leveraged long traders, this is something we should be expecting to happen again. As always, there’s the chance for opportunity during these periods of lower prices.

雖然加入槓桿多頭交易者陣營會很痛苦，但我們應該期待這種情況再次發生。與往常一樣，在價格較低的時期存在機會。

China’s year-on-year consumer price index (CPI) inflation landed well below the forecast of 0.4%, at 0.2%. This marks a 50% shift lower in what the market expected.

中國消費者物價指數（CPI）年增率降至0.2%，遠低於預期的0.4%。這標誌著市場預期下降了 50%。

The US also shared similar positive sentiment towards inflation, with their CPI year-on-year reading coming in as expected at 2.7%.

美國對通膨也抱持類似的正面情緒，其CPI年比數據為2.7%，符合預期。

Bitwise is the leading global crypto index fund manager. This year, they launched a spot in Bitcoin and Ethereum Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) alongside the likes of BlackRock and Fidelity.

Bitwise 是全球領先的加密貨幣指數基金管理公司。今年，他們與貝萊德和富達等公司一起推出了比特幣和以太坊交易所交易基金（ETF）。

This week, they dropped their predictions for 2025, which are a very interesting read and pretty spot on, in my opinion.

本週，他們放棄了 2025 年的預測，在我看來，這是一篇非常有趣的文章，而且非常正確。

Fear and greed currently reads 80 – Extreme greed.

恐懼和貪婪目前為 80 – 極度貪婪。

As we approach the end of the quarter, using a Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) tool can be handy when anchored to the start of the quarter to observe what the market might consider as key levels moving forward.

隨著季度末的臨近，使用成交量加權平均價格 (VWAP) 工具在季度初觀察市場可能認為的關鍵水平會很方便。

This indicator provides bands of how stretched price currently is, relative to its average volume weighted price.

此指標提供了當前價格相對於平均成交量加權價格的拉伸程度。

Bullish Scenario

看漲情景

As prices continue to make higher highs and higher lows, we should see targets like the +2 Standard Deviation ($109,694) and +3 Standard Deviation ($123,260) become possible levels of interest for the market, now that we are in price discovery.

隨著價格繼續創造更高的高點和更高的低點，我們應該看到像+2 標準差（109,694 美元）和+3 標準差（123,260 美元）這樣的目標成為市場可能感興趣的水平，現在我們正處於價格發現階段。

Bearish Scenario

看跌情景

Losing the +1 Std. Deviation, currently at $96,129, could prove to be bearish, as a key level has been lost.

失去+1標準。目前的偏差為 96,129 美元，可能被證明是看跌的，因為關鍵水平已經丟失。

Using a Fibonacci extension from the previous all time highs to the most recent lows from 2022, we can identify these key levels on AAVE.

使用從先前的歷史高點到 2022 年最新低點的斐波那契擴展，我們可以識別 AAVE 上的這些關鍵水平。

Bullish Scenario

看漲情景

Continuing to see sponsorship by the bulls, I’d expect a move towards the 0.618 ratio, and then a re-accumulation and move towards the 0.786 next.

繼續看到多頭的支持，我預計該比率將走向 0.618，然後重新累積並走向 0.786。

Bearish Scenario

看跌情景

Weakness around the range midpoint could result in a shift back lower, before we can try to go higher.

在我們嘗試走高之前，區間中點附近的疲軟可能會導致價格回落。

Using Fibonacci extensions again for ONDO I’m looking at the below plan of attack.

再次為 ONDO 使用斐波那契擴展，我正在查看下面的攻擊計劃。

Bullish Scenario

看漲情景

Having broken above the golden Fibonacci level of 0.618, we could now expect the targets higher being achievable.

在突破黃金斐波那契水準 0.618 後，我們現在可以預期可以實現更高的目標。

Bearish Scenario

看跌情景

Should there be some weakness developing at these highs, and failure to rally, we could see prices move back toward the middle of the range.

如果在這些高點出現一些疲軟，並且未能反彈，我們可能會看到價格回到區間的中間位置。