BTC 策略让 MicroStrategy 的纳斯达克指数上市受到质疑

12 月 10 日，我们目睹了加密货币市场的一场巨大的去杠杆化事件，超过 15 亿美元的多头敞口被抹去

Crypto markets saw a huge de-leveraging event on the 10th of December, with over $1.5 billion US in long exposure being wiped off the market books.

12 月 10 日，加密货币市场发生了一场大规模的去杠杆化事件，超过 15 亿美元的长期风险敞口从市场账簿中消失。

This event serves as a prime example of market conditions where true demand (spot buyers) was absent, leading to FOMO chasing leverage traders betting on higher prices. This is a common occurrence during bull markets.

这一事件是市场状况的一个典型例子，在这种情况下，真正的需求（现货买家）不存在，导致“害怕错过”（FOMO）追逐杠杆交易者押注更高的价格。这是牛市期间常见的情况。

We have already seen a substantial recovery, with Bitcoin at this current time trading back above $100,000 US.

我们已经看到了大幅复苏，比特币目前已回到 10 万美元以上。

While it would have been painful to be in the camp of the leveraged long traders, this is something we should be expecting to happen again. As always, there’s the chance for opportunity during these periods of lower prices.

虽然加入杠杆多头交易者阵营会很痛苦，但我们应该期待这种情况再次发生。与往常一样，在价格较低的时期存在机会。

China’s year-on-year consumer price index (CPI) inflation landed well below the forecast of 0.4%, at 0.2%. This marks a 50% shift lower in what the market expected.

中国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比通胀率降至0.2%，远低于预期的0.4%。这标志着市场预期下降了 50%。

The US also shared similar positive sentiment towards inflation, with their CPI year-on-year reading coming in as expected at 2.7%.

美国对通胀也抱有类似的积极情绪，其CPI同比数据为2.7%，符合预期。

Bitwise is the leading global crypto index fund manager. This year, they launched a spot in Bitcoin and Ethereum Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) alongside the likes of BlackRock and Fidelity.

Bitwise 是全球领先的加密货币指数基金管理公司。今年，他们与贝莱德和富达等公司一起推出了比特币和以太坊交易所交易基金（ETF）。

This week, they dropped their predictions for 2025, which are a very interesting read and pretty spot on, in my opinion.

本周，他们放弃了对 2025 年的预测，在我看来，这是一篇非常有趣的文章，而且非常正确。

Fear and greed currently reads 80 – Extreme greed.

恐惧和贪婪目前为 80 – 极度贪婪。

As we approach the end of the quarter, using a Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) tool can be handy when anchored to the start of the quarter to observe what the market might consider as key levels moving forward.

随着季度末的临近，使用成交量加权平均价格 (VWAP) 工具在季度初观察市场可能认为的关键水平会很方便。

This indicator provides bands of how stretched price currently is, relative to its average volume weighted price.

该指标提供了当前价格相对于平均成交量加权价格的拉伸程度。

Bullish Scenario

看涨情景

As prices continue to make higher highs and higher lows, we should see targets like the +2 Standard Deviation ($109,694) and +3 Standard Deviation ($123,260) become possible levels of interest for the market, now that we are in price discovery.

随着价格继续创造更高的高点和更高的低点，我们应该看到像 +2 标准差（109,694 美元）和 +3 标准差（123,260 美元）这样的目标成为市场可能感兴趣的水平，现在我们正处于价格发现阶段。

Bearish Scenario

看跌情景

Losing the +1 Std. Deviation, currently at $96,129, could prove to be bearish, as a key level has been lost.

失去+1标准。目前的偏差为 96,129 美元，可能被证明是看跌的，因为关键水平已经丢失。

Using a Fibonacci extension from the previous all time highs to the most recent lows from 2022, we can identify these key levels on AAVE.

使用从之前的历史高点到 2022 年最新低点的斐波那契扩展，我们可以识别 AAVE 上的这些关键水平。

Bullish Scenario

看涨情景

Continuing to see sponsorship by the bulls, I’d expect a move towards the 0.618 ratio, and then a re-accumulation and move towards the 0.786 next.

继续看到多头的支持，我预计该比率将走向 0.618，然后重新积累并走向 0.786。

Bearish Scenario

看跌情景

Weakness around the range midpoint could result in a shift back lower, before we can try to go higher.

在我们尝试走高之前，区间中点附近的疲软可能会导致价格回落。

Using Fibonacci extensions again for ONDO I’m looking at the below plan of attack.

再次为 ONDO 使用斐波那契扩展，我正在查看下面的攻击计划。

Bullish Scenario

看涨情景

Having broken above the golden Fibonacci level of 0.618, we could now expect the targets higher being achievable.

在突破黄金斐波那契水平 0.618 后，我们现在可以预期可以实现更高的目标。

Bearish Scenario

看跌情景

Should there be some weakness developing at these highs, and failure to rally, we could see prices move back toward the middle of the range.

如果在这些高点出现一些疲软，并且未能反弹，我们可能会看到价格回到区间的中间位置。