BTC Strategy Puts MicroStrategy’s Nasdaq Index Listing In Doubt

On the 10th of December, we bore witness to an enormous de-leveraging event in the crypto markets, with over $1.5 billion US in long exposure wiped

Crypto markets saw a huge de-leveraging event on the 10th of December, with over $1.5 billion US in long exposure being wiped off the market books.

This event serves as a prime example of market conditions where true demand (spot buyers) was absent, leading to FOMO chasing leverage traders betting on higher prices. This is a common occurrence during bull markets.

We have already seen a substantial recovery, with Bitcoin at this current time trading back above $100,000 US.

While it would have been painful to be in the camp of the leveraged long traders, this is something we should be expecting to happen again. As always, there’s the chance for opportunity during these periods of lower prices.

China’s year-on-year consumer price index (CPI) inflation landed well below the forecast of 0.4%, at 0.2%. This marks a 50% shift lower in what the market expected.

The US also shared similar positive sentiment towards inflation, with their CPI year-on-year reading coming in as expected at 2.7%.

Bitwise is the leading global crypto index fund manager. This year, they launched a spot in Bitcoin and Ethereum Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) alongside the likes of BlackRock and Fidelity.

This week, they dropped their predictions for 2025, which are a very interesting read and pretty spot on, in my opinion.

Fear and greed currently reads 80 – Extreme greed.

As we approach the end of the quarter, using a Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) tool can be handy when anchored to the start of the quarter to observe what the market might consider as key levels moving forward.

This indicator provides bands of how stretched price currently is, relative to its average volume weighted price.

Bullish Scenario

As prices continue to make higher highs and higher lows, we should see targets like the +2 Standard Deviation ($109,694) and +3 Standard Deviation ($123,260) become possible levels of interest for the market, now that we are in price discovery.

Bearish Scenario

Losing the +1 Std. Deviation, currently at $96,129, could prove to be bearish, as a key level has been lost.

Using a Fibonacci extension from the previous all time highs to the most recent lows from 2022, we can identify these key levels on AAVE.

Bullish Scenario

Continuing to see sponsorship by the bulls, I’d expect a move towards the 0.618 ratio, and then a re-accumulation and move towards the 0.786 next.

Bearish Scenario

Weakness around the range midpoint could result in a shift back lower, before we can try to go higher.

Using Fibonacci extensions again for ONDO I’m looking at the below plan of attack.

Bullish Scenario

Having broken above the golden Fibonacci level of 0.618, we could now expect the targets higher being achievable.

Bearish Scenario

Should there be some weakness developing at these highs, and failure to rally, we could see prices move back toward the middle of the range.