超過$ 90k的爆炸看起來不錯。但這真的是2025年公牛的怪物嗎？

是的，減半的周期。比特幣的內置供應衝擊。每四年，礦工的獎勵就會被削減 - 發生在2024年4月左右。

Blasting past $90k looked good. Real good. But after cooling its heels a bit around the $93k-$94k mark, the big question echoes louder: Is this really the monster 2025 bull run starting, or are we just getting played again?

超過$ 90k的爆炸看起來不錯。真正的好。但是，在冷卻了$ 93K- $ 94K大關之後，大問題大聲呼應：這真的是2025年公牛跑步的怪物，還是我們剛剛開始比賽？

Forget the hopium pipes and Tarot cards; let’s get real and see what the charts, the chain data, and the ghosts of cycles past are actually screaming at us right now, late April 2025.

忘記霍普管和塔羅牌；讓我們真實地看看過去的圖表，鏈數據和幽靈實際上在2025年4月下旬在我們現在在我們身上尖叫。

Halving History: This Time Feels… Off?

減少歷史：這次感覺……脫落？

Right, the Halving cycles. Bitcoin’s (BTC) built-in supply shock. Every four years, miner rewards get slashed – happened last around April 2024. Textbook Bitcoin says roughly a year later, we should be rocketing. Think 2013, 2017, 2021… explosive moves were well underway by now in those cycles.

是的，減半的周期。比特幣（BTC）內置供應衝擊。每四年，礦工的獎勵就會被削減 - 發生在2024年4月左右。想想2013年，2017年，2021年…爆炸性動作現在已經進行了良好的動作。

But this time? Feels sluggish, percentage-wise. We’re up, sure, but not that insane vertical climb history taught us to expect 12 months post-halving. Why? Take your pick: global economic jitters, those trade war rumblings, maybe the market’s just maturing.

但是這次？感覺遲鈍，百分比。當然，我們已經起床了，但並不是那個瘋狂的垂直攀登歷史教會了我們預計稍有12個月的時間。為什麼？選擇您的選擇：全球經濟抖動，那些貿易戰的隆隆聲，也許是市場的成熟。

Who truly knows?

誰真正知道？

Still, the core logic – less new supply hitting the market eventually means price goes up if people still want it – hasn’t vanished. Plenty of charts floating around still point to late 2025, maybe early 2026, for the real peak, clinging to that classic 12-to-18-month post-halving window. Maybe the fuse is just burning slower this round. Or maybe history isn’t the perfect map this time.

儘管如此，核心邏輯 - 較少的新供應最終意味著如果人們仍然想要的話，價格上漲 - 尚未消失。許多圖表浮在2025年末，也許是2026年初，是真正的峰值，緊貼著經典的12到18個月後的途中窗口。也許保險絲在這一輪燃燒速度較慢。也許這次歷史不是完美的地圖。

On-Chain Guts: What the Blockchain Spills

鏈腸：區塊鏈溢出的東西

Don’t expect a clean “buy” or “sell” signal from the blockchain data; it’s way messier, more human than that.

不要期望從區塊鏈數據中發出乾淨的“買入”或“賣出”信號；這是凌亂的，比這更人性化。

Bottom line: The chain shows resilience. People are taking profits, but others are accumulating, and the wild mania hasn’t fully kicked in.

底線：鏈條顯示出彈性。人們正在獲利，但其他人正在積累，野生動物尚未完全啟動。

Miners: Toughing It Out

礦工：艱難

Spare a thought for the miners. The 2024 Halving literally halved their direct income overnight. Combine that with power costs… ouch. Yet, the network’s security blanket – the hashrate – remains huge. Miners haven’t just packed up and gone home en masse.

為礦工留下想法。 2024年的一擋使他們的直接收入在一夜之間減半。將其與電源成本相結合……哎呀。但是，網絡的安全毯 - 哈希拉特 - 仍然很大。礦工們不僅收拾行裝並大批回家。

Why? They must be betting heavily on higher future prices to justify burning all that electricity. High transaction fees gave them a temporary boost (recall the Runes hype), but they need BTC’s price to climb or network usage to stay high. They’re showing true grit, but don’t mistake that for easy street. They need this rally to continue.

為什麼？他們必須大力投注更高的未來價格，以證明燃燒所有電力的合理性。高交易費用給了他們暫時的提升（召回符文的炒作），但他們需要BTC的價格攀升或網絡使用才能保持高度。他們表現出真正的勇氣，但不要將其誤認為是輕鬆的街道。他們需要這個集會才能繼續。

Beyond the Chart: Bitcoin’s Building Blocks & Big Money

超越圖表：比特幣的構建塊和巨額資金

Bitcoin’s more than just its price ticker. Stuff’s happening under the hood.

比特幣的價格不僅僅是其價格股票。事情發生在引擎蓋下。

The Vibe Check & That Macro Mess

氛圍檢查和那個宏觀混亂

You feel the shifts, right? Social media blows hot and cold. Google searches spike. When price jumps, always check the volume – weak volume is a weak sign. Right now, the Fear & Greed Index took a breather after touching “Greed” near $95k; folks might be tapping the brakes, getting a bit wary.

你感覺到了變化，對嗎？社交媒體吹冷熱。 Google搜索Spike。當價格上漲時，請務必檢查音量 - 弱體積是一個弱標誌。目前，恐懼和貪婪的索引在接近95,000美元的“貪婪”後喘口氣。人們可能會敲動剎車，有點警惕。

Then zoom out. Inflation won’t quit. Central banks keep us guessing on rates. Geopolitics are… well, messy. All this chaos makes Bitcoin’s pitch – “digital gold,” hedge against crazy governments – sound appealing to a wider crowd. These global currents definitely sway Bitcoin’s tide.

然後縮小。通貨膨脹不會退出。中央銀行讓我們猜測利率。地緣政治是……好吧，凌亂。所有這些混亂都使比特幣的宣傳 - “數字黃金”，對陣瘋狂政府的對沖 - 聽起來對更廣泛的人群有吸引力。這些全球電流絕對搖擺比特幣的潮流。

So, Is This It? The Straight Dope

那是嗎？筆直的塗料

If anyone guarantees you the 2025 bull run is baked in, walk away. They’re clueless or lying. This cycle is playing out differently so far. Global economic storms are real. Regulators could throw a wrench in the works anytime. And big drops? They’re part of the game – expect them.

如果有人保證您，2025年的公牛跑步將被烤進去，那就走開。他們無知或撒謊。到目前為止，這個週期的表現不同。全球經濟風暴是真實的。監管機構可以隨時在作品中扔扳手。和大滴？它們是遊戲的一部分 - 期待他們。

BUT… That Halving cycle playbook, while maybe running late, isn't torn up yet. The on-chain data shows long-term believers are still stacking, even as others cash out. Miners are hanging on. Bitcoin’s tech keeps evolving. And the sheer potential of serious institutional cash finally arriving properly looms large, especially if the rules get clearer.

但是……那本減半的循環劇本雖然可能遲到，但還沒有撕裂。鏈上的數據表明，即使其他人兌現，長期信徒仍在堆疊。礦工正在掛。比特幣的技術不斷發展。嚴重的機構現金的巨大潛力終於適當地籠罩著大型，尤其是如果規則變得更加清晰。

The weight of evidence suggests we’re probably building towards something bigger for late 2025 or early 2026. Think foundations being laid, not the roof going on. It won’t be a straight line up. How Bitcoin handles the current zone (holding ~$90k-$93k feels important) and whether those ETF flows turn positive again will be huge tells. Keep your eyes open. Don’t get rekt.

證據的重量表明，我們可能會在2025年末或2026年初建立更大的東西。認為基礎是鋪設的，而不是屋頂的延伸。這不會是直線的。比特幣如何處理當前區域（持有〜$ 90K- $ 93K感覺很重要），這些ETF流是否再次變為正面是巨大的。保持眼睛睜開。不要得到Rekt。

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