超过$ 90k的爆炸看起来不错。但这真的是2025年公牛的怪物吗？

是的，减半的周期。比特币的内置供应冲击。每四年，矿工的奖励就会被削减 - 发生在2024年4月左右。

Blasting past $90k looked good. Real good. But after cooling its heels a bit around the $93k-$94k mark, the big question echoes louder: Is this really the monster 2025 bull run starting, or are we just getting played again?

超过$ 90k的爆炸看起来不错。真正的好。但是，在冷却了$ 93K- $ 94K大关之后，大问题大声呼应：这真的是2025年公牛跑步的怪物，还是我们刚刚开始比赛？

Forget the hopium pipes and Tarot cards; let’s get real and see what the charts, the chain data, and the ghosts of cycles past are actually screaming at us right now, late April 2025.

忘记霍普管和塔罗牌；让我们真实地看看过去的图表，链数据和幽灵实际上在2025年4月下旬在我们现在在我们身上尖叫。

Halving History: This Time Feels… Off?

减少历史：这次感觉……脱落？

Right, the Halving cycles. Bitcoin’s (BTC) built-in supply shock. Every four years, miner rewards get slashed – happened last around April 2024. Textbook Bitcoin says roughly a year later, we should be rocketing. Think 2013, 2017, 2021… explosive moves were well underway by now in those cycles.

是的，减半的周期。比特币（BTC）内置供应冲击。每四年，矿工的奖励就会被削减 - 发生在2024年4月左右。想想2013年，2017年，2021年…爆炸性动作现在已经进行了良好的动作。

But this time? Feels sluggish, percentage-wise. We’re up, sure, but not that insane vertical climb history taught us to expect 12 months post-halving. Why? Take your pick: global economic jitters, those trade war rumblings, maybe the market’s just maturing.

但是这次？感觉迟钝，百分比。当然，我们已经起床了，但并不是那个疯狂的垂直攀登历史教会了我们预计稍有12个月的时间。为什么？选择您的选择：全球经济抖动，那些贸易战的隆隆声，也许是市场的成熟。

Who truly knows?

谁真正知道？

Still, the core logic – less new supply hitting the market eventually means price goes up if people still want it – hasn’t vanished. Plenty of charts floating around still point to late 2025, maybe early 2026, for the real peak, clinging to that classic 12-to-18-month post-halving window. Maybe the fuse is just burning slower this round. Or maybe history isn’t the perfect map this time.

尽管如此，核心逻辑 - 较少的新供应最终意味着如果人们仍然想要的话，价格上涨 - 尚未消失。许多图表浮在2025年末，也许是2026年初，是真正的峰值，紧贴着经典的12到18个月后的途中窗口。也许保险丝在这一轮燃烧速度较慢。也许这次历史不是完美的地图。

On-Chain Guts: What the Blockchain Spills

链肠：区块链溢出的东西

Don’t expect a clean “buy” or “sell” signal from the blockchain data; it’s way messier, more human than that.

不要期望从区块链数据中发出干净的“买入”或“卖出”信号；这是凌乱的，比这更人性化。

Bottom line: The chain shows resilience. People are taking profits, but others are accumulating, and the wild mania hasn’t fully kicked in.

底线：链条显示出弹性。人们正在获利，但其他人正在积累，野生动物尚未完全启动。

Miners: Toughing It Out

矿工：艰难

Spare a thought for the miners. The 2024 Halving literally halved their direct income overnight. Combine that with power costs… ouch. Yet, the network’s security blanket – the hashrate – remains huge. Miners haven’t just packed up and gone home en masse.

为矿工留下想法。 2024年的一挡使他们的直接收入在一夜之间减半。将其与电源成本相结合……哎呀。但是，网络的安全毯 - 哈希拉特 - 仍然很大。矿工们不仅收拾行装并大批回家。

Why? They must be betting heavily on higher future prices to justify burning all that electricity. High transaction fees gave them a temporary boost (recall the Runes hype), but they need BTC’s price to climb or network usage to stay high. They’re showing true grit, but don’t mistake that for easy street. They need this rally to continue.

为什么？他们必须大力投注更高的未来价格，以证明燃烧所有电力的合理性。高交易费用给了他们暂时的提升（召回符文的炒作），但他们需要BTC的价格攀升或网络使用才能保持高度。他们表现出真正的勇气，但不要将其误认为是轻松的街道。他们需要这个集会才能继续。

Beyond the Chart: Bitcoin’s Building Blocks & Big Money

超越图表：比特币的构建块和巨额资金

Bitcoin’s more than just its price ticker. Stuff’s happening under the hood.

比特币的价格不仅仅是其价格股票。事情发生在引擎盖下。

The Vibe Check & That Macro Mess

氛围检查和那个宏观混乱

You feel the shifts, right? Social media blows hot and cold. Google searches spike. When price jumps, always check the volume – weak volume is a weak sign. Right now, the Fear & Greed Index took a breather after touching “Greed” near $95k; folks might be tapping the brakes, getting a bit wary.

你感觉到了变化，对吗？社交媒体吹冷热。 Google搜索Spike。当价格上涨时，请务必检查音量 - 弱体积是一个弱标志。目前，恐惧和贪婪的索引在接近95,000美元的“贪婪”后喘口气。人们可能会敲动刹车，有点警惕。

Then zoom out. Inflation won’t quit. Central banks keep us guessing on rates. Geopolitics are… well, messy. All this chaos makes Bitcoin’s pitch – “digital gold,” hedge against crazy governments – sound appealing to a wider crowd. These global currents definitely sway Bitcoin’s tide.

然后缩小。通货膨胀不会退出。中央银行让我们猜测利率。地缘政治是……好吧，凌乱。所有这些混乱都使比特币的宣传 - “数字黄金”，对阵疯狂政府的对冲 - 听起来对更广泛的人群有吸引力。这些全球电流绝对摇摆比特币的潮流。

So, Is This It? The Straight Dope

那是吗？笔直的涂料

If anyone guarantees you the 2025 bull run is baked in, walk away. They’re clueless or lying. This cycle is playing out differently so far. Global economic storms are real. Regulators could throw a wrench in the works anytime. And big drops? They’re part of the game – expect them.

如果有人保证您，2025年的公牛跑步将被烤进去，那就走开。他们无知或撒谎。到目前为止，这个周期的表现不同。全球经济风暴是真实的。监管机构可以随时在作品中扔扳手。和大滴？它们是游戏的一部分 - 期待他们。

BUT… That Halving cycle playbook, while maybe running late, isn't torn up yet. The on-chain data shows long-term believers are still stacking, even as others cash out. Miners are hanging on. Bitcoin’s tech keeps evolving. And the sheer potential of serious institutional cash finally arriving properly looms large, especially if the rules get clearer.

但是……那本减半的循环剧本虽然可能迟到，但还没有撕裂。链上的数据表明，即使其他人兑现，长期信徒仍在堆叠。矿工正在挂。比特币的技术不断发展。严重的机构现金的巨大潜力终于适当地笼罩着大型，尤其是如果规则变得更加清晰。

The weight of evidence suggests we’re probably building towards something bigger for late 2025 or early 2026. Think foundations being laid, not the roof going on. It won’t be a straight line up. How Bitcoin handles the current zone (holding ~$90k-$93k feels important) and whether those ETF flows turn positive again will be huge tells. Keep your eyes open. Don’t get rekt.

证据的重量表明，我们可能会在2025年末或2026年初建立更大的东西。认为基础是铺设的，而不是屋顶的延伸。这不会是直线的。比特币如何处理当前区域（持有〜$ 90K- $ 93K感觉很重要），这些ETF流是否再次变为正面是巨大的。保持眼睛睁开。不要得到Rekt。

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