比特幣現在比標準普爾500標準普爾和納斯達克的揮發性少。

在波動率是常態的加密市場中，比特幣剛剛越過意外的門檻。

In a crypto market where volatility is usually the name of the game, Bitcoin has just crossed an unexpected threshold: it is now less volatile than the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

在一個通常是遊戲名稱的加密貨幣市場中，比特幣剛剛越過意外的門檻：現在比標準普爾500標準普爾和納斯達克的揮發性較小。

This subtle but significant shift, revealed by Galaxy Digital, challenges a decade of perception of an asset deemed too risky for traditional portfolios. More than a simple technical indicator, this signal could mark a lasting change in status for the first cryptocurrency.

Galaxy Digital揭示的這種微妙但重大的轉變挑戰了人們對傳統投資組合過於冒險的資產的十年感知。此信號不僅是一個簡單的技術指標，還可以標誌著第一個加密貨幣的狀態變化。

On May 12, Galaxy Digital highlighted in its latest report that Bitcoin’s 10-day realized volatility had fallen to 43.86, a level now lower than the S&P 500 (47.29) and Nasdaq 100 (51.26).

5月12日，Galaxy Digital在其最新報告中強調了比特幣的10天實現波動率下降到43.86，現在低於標準普爾500指數（47.29）和NASDAQ 100（51.26）。

This is considered an unusual position for a crypto historically known for its instability.

對於以其不穩定而聞名的加密貨幣，這被認為是一個不尋常的立場。

"It’s noteworthy that despite the recent market turbulence, major stock indices saw their 10-day realized volatilities increase to 47.29 for the S&P 500 and 51.26 for the Nasdaq 100, compared to 39.84 for Bitcoin," Galaxy analysts observe in their report.

“值得注意的是，儘管最近市場動盪，但主要的股票指數看到，他們的10天實現的波動率增加到標準普爾500指數的47.29，而納斯達克100號的51.26則增加了比特幣的39.84，而比特幣的39.84則在他們的報告中觀察到。”

This shift comes as traditional markets show signs of fragility, especially since Donald Trump’s surprise announcement on April 2 regarding the “tariff liberation day”, which amplified international economic tensions.

這一轉變是隨著傳統市場表現出脆弱性的跡象，尤其是自從唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）於4月2日關於“關稅解放日”的驚喜宣布以來，這擴大了國際經濟緊張局勢。

In this context, Bitcoin has not only stabilized but has risen by 11 % over the period, sharply contrasting with the stagnation of stock indices. Several major economic indicators, meanwhile, have experienced increased volatility :

在這種情況下，比特幣不僅穩定了，而且在此期間增長了11％，與庫存指數停滯形成鮮明對比。同時，幾種主要的經濟指標經歷了增加的波動：

This situation is reminiscent of that observed in 2018–2019 during trade tensions between the United States and China, a period during which Bitcoin had already established itself as a safe-haven asset.

這種情況讓人聯想到2018 - 2019年在美國和中國之間的貿易緊張局勢期間觀察到的情況，這一時期在這一時期已經將自己確立為安全資產。

This parallel highlights an emerging dynamic. In phases of systemic crisis, Bitcoin tends to behave as a macroeconomic counter-asset, a role until now reserved for commodities such as gold.

該並行突出了新興的動態。在系統性危機的階段，比特幣傾向於作為宏觀經濟的反學表現，直到現在為黃金等商品保留。

Beyond recent fluctuations, Galaxy Digital identifies a deeper trend: the decline of Bitcoin’s beta relative to major indices, despite still high 30-day correlations with the S&P (0.62) and Nasdaq (0.64).

除了最近的波動之外，Galaxy Digital還確定了一個更深的趨勢：儘管與標準普爾（0.62）和納斯達克（0.64）仍然相關30天相關，但比特幣β相對於主要指數的下降。

This risk profile change indicates that “investors are beginning to see Bitcoin less as a high-risk asset and more as a long-term allocation”, comments Chris Rhine, Head of Liquid Strategies at Galaxy.

Galaxy液體策略負責人克里斯·萊茵（Chris Rhine）評論說，這種風險概況的變化表明，“投資者開始將比特幣視為高風險資產，而將比特幣視為長期分配”。

In other words, Bitcoin would be moving out of the speculative assets category to join the sustainable portfolio components.

換句話說，比特幣將移出投機資產類別，以加入可持續投資組合組件。

This evolution is also supported by the rise of institutional liquidity. Hank Huang, CEO of Kronos Research, notes that ongoing inflows towards ETFs and recurring strategic Bitcoin purchases “help transform it into a digital version of gold, less correlated with equities”.

機構流動性的興起也支持了這種演變。 Kronos Research的首席執行官Hank Huang指出，持續向ETF的流入和重複的戰略比特幣購買“有助於將其轉變為數字版本的黃金，與股票的相關性較小”。

This stabilization is made possible, according to Galaxy, by a market “tactically cautious but structurally constructive”, characterized by disciplined leverage usage and low pressure on hedging strategies. With 95% of total Bitcoin supply already mined, the asset’s mechanical scarcity reinforces this maturity dynamic.

Galaxy認為，這種穩定是通過“戰術上謹慎但結構上建設性”的市場，其特徵是紀律嚴明的槓桿用法和對沖策略的低壓。由於已經開采了比特幣供應的95％，因此資產的機械稀缺性增強了這種成熟度動態。

This transformation could ultimately reshape the landscape of international reserves. On April 25, Jay Jacobs, Head of Thematic ETFs at BlackRock, noted that states are gradually reducing their dependence on the dollar to turn to alternative assets such as gold… and now Bitcoin. “Geopolitical fragmentation fuels demand for uncorrelated assets”, he explained, explicitly mentioning Bitcoin’s growing role as a safe haven alongside the precious metal.

這種轉變最終可以重塑國際儲量的景觀。 4月25日，貝萊德（Blackrock）主題ETF的負責人傑伊·雅各布斯（Jay Jacobs）指出，各州正在逐漸減少對美元的依賴，以轉向諸如黃金等替代資產，現在是比特幣。他解釋說：“地緣政治破碎化促進了對不相關的資產的需求。”