比特币现在比标准普尔500标准普尔和纳斯达克的挥发性少。

在波动率是常态的加密市场中，比特币刚刚越过意外的门槛。

In a crypto market where volatility is usually the name of the game, Bitcoin has just crossed an unexpected threshold: it is now less volatile than the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

在一个通常是游戏名称的加密货币市场中，比特币刚刚越过意外的门槛：现在比标准普尔500标准普尔和纳斯达克的挥发性较小。

This subtle but significant shift, revealed by Galaxy Digital, challenges a decade of perception of an asset deemed too risky for traditional portfolios. More than a simple technical indicator, this signal could mark a lasting change in status for the first cryptocurrency.

Galaxy Digital揭示的这种微妙但重大的转变挑战了人们对传统投资组合过于冒险的资产的十年感知。此信号不仅是一个简单的技术指标，还可以标志着第一个加密货币的状态变化。

On May 12, Galaxy Digital highlighted in its latest report that Bitcoin’s 10-day realized volatility had fallen to 43.86, a level now lower than the S&P 500 (47.29) and Nasdaq 100 (51.26).

5月12日，Galaxy Digital在其最新报告中强调了比特币的10天实现波动率下降到43.86，现在低于标准普尔500指数（47.29）和NASDAQ 100（51.26）。

This is considered an unusual position for a crypto historically known for its instability.

对于以其不稳定而闻名的加密货币，这被认为是一个不寻常的立场。

"It’s noteworthy that despite the recent market turbulence, major stock indices saw their 10-day realized volatilities increase to 47.29 for the S&P 500 and 51.26 for the Nasdaq 100, compared to 39.84 for Bitcoin," Galaxy analysts observe in their report.

“值得注意的是，尽管最近市场动荡，但主要的股票指数看到，他们的10天实现的波动率增加到标准普尔500指数的47.29，而纳斯达克100号的51.26则增加了比特币的39.84，而比特币的39.84则在他们的报告中观察到。”

This shift comes as traditional markets show signs of fragility, especially since Donald Trump’s surprise announcement on April 2 regarding the “tariff liberation day”, which amplified international economic tensions.

这一转变是随着传统市场表现出脆弱性的迹象，尤其是自从唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）于4月2日关于“关税解放日”的惊喜宣布以来，这扩大了国际经济紧张局势。

In this context, Bitcoin has not only stabilized but has risen by 11 % over the period, sharply contrasting with the stagnation of stock indices. Several major economic indicators, meanwhile, have experienced increased volatility :

在这种情况下，比特币不仅稳定了，而且在此期间增长了11％，与库存指数停滞形成鲜明对比。同时，几种主要的经济指标经历了增加的波动：

This situation is reminiscent of that observed in 2018–2019 during trade tensions between the United States and China, a period during which Bitcoin had already established itself as a safe-haven asset.

这种情况让人联想到2018 - 2019年在美国和中国之间的贸易紧张局势期间观察到的情况，这一时期在这一时期已经将自己确立为安全资产。

This parallel highlights an emerging dynamic. In phases of systemic crisis, Bitcoin tends to behave as a macroeconomic counter-asset, a role until now reserved for commodities such as gold.

该并行突出了新兴的动态。在系统性危机的阶段，比特币倾向于作为宏观经济的反学表现，直到现在为黄金等商品保留。

Beyond recent fluctuations, Galaxy Digital identifies a deeper trend: the decline of Bitcoin’s beta relative to major indices, despite still high 30-day correlations with the S&P (0.62) and Nasdaq (0.64).

除了最近的波动之外，Galaxy Digital还确定了一个更深的趋势：尽管与标准普尔（0.62）和纳斯达克（0.64）仍然相关30天相关，但比特币β相对于主要指数的下降。

This risk profile change indicates that “investors are beginning to see Bitcoin less as a high-risk asset and more as a long-term allocation”, comments Chris Rhine, Head of Liquid Strategies at Galaxy.

Galaxy液体策略负责人克里斯·莱茵（Chris Rhine）评论说，这种风险概况的变化表明，“投资者开始将比特币视为高风险资产，而将比特币视为长期分配”。

In other words, Bitcoin would be moving out of the speculative assets category to join the sustainable portfolio components.

换句话说，比特币将移出投机资产类别，以加入可持续投资组合组件。

This evolution is also supported by the rise of institutional liquidity. Hank Huang, CEO of Kronos Research, notes that ongoing inflows towards ETFs and recurring strategic Bitcoin purchases “help transform it into a digital version of gold, less correlated with equities”.

机构流动性的兴起也支持了这种演变。 Kronos Research的首席执行官Hank Huang指出，持续向ETF的流入和重复的战略比特币购买“有助于将其转变为数字版本的黄金，与股票的相关性较小”。

This stabilization is made possible, according to Galaxy, by a market “tactically cautious but structurally constructive”, characterized by disciplined leverage usage and low pressure on hedging strategies. With 95% of total Bitcoin supply already mined, the asset’s mechanical scarcity reinforces this maturity dynamic.

Galaxy认为，这种稳定是通过“战术上谨慎但结构上建设性”的市场，其特征是纪律严明的杠杆用法和对冲策略的低压。由于已经开采了比特币供应的95％，因此资产的机械稀缺性增强了这种成熟度动态。

This transformation could ultimately reshape the landscape of international reserves. On April 25, Jay Jacobs, Head of Thematic ETFs at BlackRock, noted that states are gradually reducing their dependence on the dollar to turn to alternative assets such as gold… and now Bitcoin. “Geopolitical fragmentation fuels demand for uncorrelated assets”, he explained, explicitly mentioning Bitcoin’s growing role as a safe haven alongside the precious metal.

这种转变最终可以重塑国际储量的景观。 4月25日，贝莱德（Blackrock）主题ETF的负责人杰伊·雅各布斯（Jay Jacobs）指出，各州正在逐渐减少对美元的依赖，以转向诸如黄金等替代资产，现在是比特币。他解释说：“地缘政治破碎化促进了对不相关的资产的需求。”