探索比特幣國庫公司的潛在“死亡螺旋”及其對更廣泛的加密市場的影響。

Bitcoin, Treasury Firms, and the Looming Death Spiral: A New York Perspective

比特幣，國庫公司和迫在眉睫的死亡螺旋：紐約的觀點

The buzz around Bitcoin treasury firms is reaching a fever pitch, but lurking beneath the surface is a potential 'death spiral' scenario. Venture firm Breed is raising concerns, and it's time to pay attention.

比特幣國庫公司周圍的嗡嗡聲正在發燒，但是潛伏在地面上是一種潛在的“死亡螺旋”情況。風險投資公司正在引起人們的關注，現在該關注了。

The Bitcoin Treasury Firm Dilemma: A High-Stakes Game

比特幣國庫公司的困境：高風險遊戲

The core issue? Many companies parking Bitcoin on their balance sheets might not survive the next market downturn unless they maintain a healthy market-to-NAV (MNAV) premium. Think of it like this: if Bitcoin's price takes a nosedive, these firms could find themselves in serious trouble.

核心問題？許多公司在資產負債表上將比特幣停車可能無法在下一個市場的下一個市場下滑，除非他們保持健康的市場對NAV（MNAV）溢價。這樣就這樣認為：如果比特幣的價格需要一個鼻子，這些公司可能會發現自己陷入嚴重麻煩。

The 'Death Spiral' Unveiled

“死亡螺旋”揭開了

Breed's worry centers on a chain reaction. A sharp Bitcoin drop shrinks a firm's MNAV premium. Investors lose interest, fresh capital dries up, and suddenly, these businesses are gasping for air. Many of these firms borrowed money specifically to buy more Bitcoin, betting on its continued climb. If that bet goes south and loans mature, lenders will come calling, forcing fire sales.

品種的憂慮集中在連鎖反應上。尖銳的比特幣下降會縮小公司的MNAV溢價。投資者失去了興趣，新鮮的資本枯竭，突然之間，這些業務正在湧向空氣。這些公司中的許多公司都藉了專門購買更多比特幣，押注其繼續攀登。如果該下注向南移動並貸款成熟，貸方將來召集，迫使消防銷售。

Each fire sale further depresses the Bitcoin price, creating a domino effect across the sector. Breed calls it a 'death spiral' – a chilling prospect for any investor. Currently, most treasury firms rely on equity funding, providing some cushion. However, Breed warns that cheap debt could tempt boards to over-leverage, making the sector far more vulnerable. A single sharp price swing could trigger mass liquidations.

每次火災銷售進一步降低了比特幣價格，在整個行業產生了多米諾骨牌效應。 Breed稱其為“死亡螺旋” - 對任何投資者來說都是令人震驚的前景。目前，大多數財政公司都依靠股權資金，提供一些緩衝。但是，繁殖警告說，廉價債務可能會誘使董事會過度貸款，從而使該行業更加脆弱。單個尖銳的價格擺動可能會觸發大規模清算。

Who Will Survive?

誰能生存？

According to Breed, only a select few are likely to weather the storm. The survivors will be those who consistently increase Bitcoin-per-share, even in stagnant markets. Clear communication, strong governance, and a healthy cash buffer are key – more so than the sheer amount of Bitcoin held.

根據Breed的說法，只有少數幾個可能會在風暴中度過。倖存者將是那些即使在停滯的市場中，也會始終如一地增加比特幣的人。清晰的溝通，強大的治理和健康的現金緩衝是關鍵 - 比持有的比特幣數量更重要。

The Bigger Picture: Beyond the Balance Sheet

大局：超越資產負債表

Since MicroStrategy pioneered the corporate treasury strategy in 2020, over 250 organizations have jumped on board. If 2025 brings the correction Breed anticipates, the true measure of success won't be how much Bitcoin a company initially bought, but how much it can hold onto when the dust settles. This all depends on Bitcoin's ability to break through key resistance levels. Technical analysis suggests Bitcoin is coiling into a wedge structure, and a breakout could determine whether it has the strength to clear its all-time high. If Bitcoin fails to breakout, it risks further downside volatility.

自從MicroStrategy在2020年開創了公司國庫策略以來，超過250個組織已加入。如果2025帶來了更正品種的預期，那麼成功的真正衡量標準將不是公司最初購買的比特幣，而是灰塵沉降時可以容納多少比特幣。這一切都取決於比特幣突破關鍵阻力水平的能力。技術分析表明，比特幣正盤旋成楔形結構，突破可以確定它是否有能力清除其歷史最高的高度。如果比特幣未能突破，則可能會進一步下行波動。

Looking Ahead

展望未來

The fate of Bitcoin treasury firms is tied to the performance of Bitcoin itself. It's a high-stakes game, and only the well-prepared will emerge victorious.

比特幣國庫公司的命運與比特幣本身的表現有關。這是一款高風險的遊戲，只有準備充分的準備就可以勝利。

So, keep an eye on those MNAV premiums, folks. And maybe, just maybe, avoid over-leveraging. After all, nobody wants to be caught in a crypto death spiral, right?

因此，請注意那些MNAV保費，伙計們。也許，也許，避免過度槓桿作用。畢竟，沒有人願意被加密死亡螺旋式捕獲，對嗎？