比特幣的飆升超過$ 90K，目標是$ 10萬美元，但過度槓桿率和低點信號的風險。 BTCUSDT公牛會打破抵抗力嗎？

隨著比特幣交易穩定超過90,000美元，看漲的情緒再次主導著加密市場的話語。交易者不僅希望BTC/USDT能夠吸收在90,000美元以下中斷的任何嘗試，而且他們還預計硬幣將很容易飆升至100,000美元以上，這是關鍵的心理水平。

Bitcoin's price surged past the $90,000 mark, setting sights on the key psychological level of $100,000. However, despite bullish sentiment, several indicators point to risks that could stall the BTC/USDT recovery.

比特幣的價格超過了90,000美元的成績，將目光投向了100,000美元的關鍵心理水平。但是，儘管看漲了情感，但一些指標表明風險可能會使BTC/USDT恢復。

Bitcoin (BTC) traders are largely expecting any attempts to break below $90,000 to be absorbed by buyers, setting the stage for a continuation towards.

比特幣（BTC）交易員在很大程度上期望任何可能會被買家吸收90,000美元以下的嘗試，從而為繼續邁進。

This confidence stems from supportive macroeconomic tailwinds, increasing institutional demand, evident in minimal spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and a resilient holder base.

這種信心源於支持性宏觀經濟的尾風，增加的機構需求，在最小的點比特幣ETF流出和彈性持有人基礎中很明顯。

However, despite widespread optimism, several key indicators are flashing caution.

但是，儘管很樂觀，但幾個關鍵指標仍在謹慎。

One analyst on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, noted that while BTC/USDT price action may appear healthy, underlying metrics suggest growing instability at current levels.

該平台（以前稱為Twitter）的一位分析師指出，儘管BTC/USDT價格行動可能看起來很健康，但基本的指標表明，目前水平的不穩定越來越不穩定。

Yesterday marked the highest volume of leveraged positions in Bitcoin's history in a single day, at $8.41B USD.

昨天，在一天內，比特幣歷史上槓桿率最高，為8.41b美元。

Today, $2.4B USD were closed—likely due to Market Makers closing long positions, bear stop triggers, and liquidations.

如今，$ 2.4B美元已關閉，這可能是由於做市商關閉了長位置，熊停止觸發器和清算。

This indicates aggressive long positions, and perhaps some market makers are exiting at these levels.

這表明了積極的長位置，也許有些做市商在這些水平上退出。

According to the analyst, ignoring these signals could spell disaster for overleveraged traders on major crypto exchanges, particularly Binance, OKX, and Bybit.

根據分析師的說法，忽略這些信號可能會給主要的加密交易所，尤其是Binance，OKX和Bybit上的過度槓桿交易者帶來災難。

The analyst added that on April 23, the Bitcoin market recorded its highest-ever volume of leveraged positions.

分析師補充說，4月23日，比特幣市場記錄了其有史以來最高的槓杆位置。

Over $8.4 billion in open interest was registered in a single day, a milestone signaling both aggression and confidence from speculative long traders.

一日登記了超過84億美元的開放興趣，這是投機性長交易者的侵略性和信心的里程碑。

However, it took just 24 hours of choppy price action on April 24 for the market and exchanges to forcefully liquidate $2.4 billion in leveraged positions. This triggered speculation about potential market maker exits, stop-loss hunts, and long liquidations.

但是，4月24日的市場僅需24小時的便利價格行動，並進行了交流，即可在槓桿頭寸上進行有力清算24億美元。這引發了人們對潛在的推銷員出口，停止損失狩獵和長時間清算的猜測。

The situation is exacerbated because spot volume is notably low despite skyrocketing leveraged bets. This imbalance shows that the Bitcoin uptrend is not as robust as many people think. For this reason, the market is fragile and susceptible to huge price swings if market makers unwind their positions.

情況加劇了，因為儘管槓桿率飆升，但點量顯著較低。這種不平衡表明，比特幣上升趨勢並不像許多人認為的那麼強大。因此，如果做市商放鬆自己的位置，市場很脆弱，容易受到巨大的價格波動。

This divergence between an overextended futures market and a thin spot market is a classic risk signal that could dash bulls’ hopes and drive prices back below $90,000. In turn, this may force capital away from some of the hottest presales in 2025.

過度擴張的期貨市場與稀疏現貨市場之間的這種差異是一個經典的風險信號，它可能會使公牛隊的希望並使價格降至90,000美元以下。反過來，這可能會迫使資本遠離2025年最熱門的預售。

Even more concerning, another analyst observed that the Coinbase Premium, used to gauge institutional buying pressure in the United States, is declining. This suggests that institutional investors are growing cautious.

更令人擔憂的是，另一位分析師觀察到，用於評估美國機構購買壓力的Coinbase Prem正在下降。這表明機構投資者越來越謹慎。

Short-Term Holder Distress

短期持有人的困擾

Separate analysis reveals that short-term holders or addresses that purchased Bitcoin within the last 150 days, are selling after a dip to $74,500. The refreshing rebound from 2021 highs is offering them an opportunity to lock in gains and wait for clearer market confirmation.

單獨的分析表明，在過去150天內購買比特幣的短期持有人或地址在下跌至74,500美元後銷售。來自2021年高點的令人耳目一新的反彈為他們提供了鎖定收益並等待更清晰的市場確認的機會。

Short-term holders who have been at a loss for the past three months are now actively selling coins, which has halted the growth.

在過去三個月中一直虧損的短期持有人現在積極出售硬幣，這已經停止了增長。

Over the past three days, demand on exchanges has completely absorbed this sell-off.

在過去的三天中，交流需求完全吸收了這種拋售。

Keep watching the $96K mark -this is the average entry price for short-term holders.

繼續觀看$ 96K的大關 - 這是短期持有人的平均入場價。

In the short term, the analyst added that the $96,000 level, the average cost basis for short-term holders, is a local resistance level. It will serve as a short-term barrier that could slow aggressive buyers.

在短期內，分析師補充說，$ 96,000的水平是短期持有人的平均成本基礎，是當地的阻力水平。它將成為一個短期障礙，可以放緩積極進取的買家。

Once breached, Bitcoin could surge and make a clean break above $100,000. Trends from Binance support this bullish outlook. HODLers are holding onto their BTC rather than selling.

一旦違反，比特幣可能會激增，並在100,000美元以上進行乾淨的休息。 Binance的趨勢支持這種看漲的前景。霍德勒人堅持自己的BTC，而不是出售。

(Source)

（來源）

According to on-chain data, the number of BTC addresses depositing to Binance and other exchanges has been declining, reaching levels last seen in December 2016.

根據鏈上的數據，BTC地址的數量已在二進制和其他交易所存入的數量正在下降，2016年12月上次出現的水平達到了水平。