比特币的飙升超过$ 90K，目标是$ 10万美元，但过度杠杆率和低点信号的风险。 BTCUSDT公牛会打破抵抗力吗？

随着比特币交易稳定超过90,000美元，看涨的情绪再次主导着加密市场的话语。交易者不仅希望BTC/USDT能够吸收在90,000美元以下中断的任何尝试，而且他们还预计硬币将很容易飙升至100,000美元以上，这是关键的心理水平。

Bitcoin's price surged past the $90,000 mark, setting sights on the key psychological level of $100,000. However, despite bullish sentiment, several indicators point to risks that could stall the BTC/USDT recovery.

比特币的价格超过了90,000美元的成绩，将目光投向了100,000美元的关键心理水平。但是，尽管看涨了情感，但一些指标表明风险可能会使BTC/USDT恢复。

Bitcoin (BTC) traders are largely expecting any attempts to break below $90,000 to be absorbed by buyers, setting the stage for a continuation towards.

比特币（BTC）交易员在很大程度上期望任何可能会被买家吸收90,000美元以下的尝试，从而为继续迈进。

This confidence stems from supportive macroeconomic tailwinds, increasing institutional demand, evident in minimal spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and a resilient holder base.

这种信心源于支持性宏观经济的尾风，增加的机构需求，在最小的点比特币ETF流出和弹性持有人基础中很明显。

However, despite widespread optimism, several key indicators are flashing caution.

但是，尽管很乐观，但几个关键指标仍在谨慎。

One analyst on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, noted that while BTC/USDT price action may appear healthy, underlying metrics suggest growing instability at current levels.

该平台（以前称为Twitter）的一位分析师指出，尽管BTC/USDT价格行动可能看起来很健康，但基本的指标表明，目前水平的不稳定越来越不稳定。

Yesterday marked the highest volume of leveraged positions in Bitcoin's history in a single day, at $8.41B USD.

昨天，在一天内，比特币历史上杠杆率最高，为8.41b美元。

Today, $2.4B USD were closed—likely due to Market Makers closing long positions, bear stop triggers, and liquidations.

如今，$ 2.4B美元已关闭，这可能是由于做市商关闭了长位置，熊停止触发器和清算。

This indicates aggressive long positions, and perhaps some market makers are exiting at these levels.

这表明了积极的长位置，也许有些做市商在这些水平上退出。

According to the analyst, ignoring these signals could spell disaster for overleveraged traders on major crypto exchanges, particularly Binance, OKX, and Bybit.

根据分析师的说法，忽略这些信号可能会给主要的加密交易所，尤其是Binance，OKX和Bybit上的过度杠杆交易者带来灾难。

The analyst added that on April 23, the Bitcoin market recorded its highest-ever volume of leveraged positions.

分析师补充说，4月23日，比特币市场记录了其有史以来最高的杠杆位置。

Over $8.4 billion in open interest was registered in a single day, a milestone signaling both aggression and confidence from speculative long traders.

一日登记了超过84亿美元的开放兴趣，这是投机性长交易者的侵略性和信心的里程碑。

However, it took just 24 hours of choppy price action on April 24 for the market and exchanges to forcefully liquidate $2.4 billion in leveraged positions. This triggered speculation about potential market maker exits, stop-loss hunts, and long liquidations.

但是，4月24日的市场仅需24小时的便利价格行动，并进行了交流，即可在杠杆头寸上进行有力清算24亿美元。这引发了人们对潜在的推销员出口，停止损失狩猎和长时间清算的猜测。

The situation is exacerbated because spot volume is notably low despite skyrocketing leveraged bets. This imbalance shows that the Bitcoin uptrend is not as robust as many people think. For this reason, the market is fragile and susceptible to huge price swings if market makers unwind their positions.

情况加剧了，因为尽管杠杆率飙升，但点量显着较低。这种不平衡表明，比特币上升趋势并不像许多人认为的那么强大。因此，如果做市商放松自己的位置，市场很脆弱，容易受到巨大的价格波动。

This divergence between an overextended futures market and a thin spot market is a classic risk signal that could dash bulls’ hopes and drive prices back below $90,000. In turn, this may force capital away from some of the hottest presales in 2025.

过度扩张的期货市场与稀疏现货市场之间的这种差异是一个经典的风险信号，它可能会使公牛队的希望并使价格降至90,000美元以下。反过来，这可能会迫使资本远离2025年最热门的预售。

Even more concerning, another analyst observed that the Coinbase Premium, used to gauge institutional buying pressure in the United States, is declining. This suggests that institutional investors are growing cautious.

更令人担忧的是，另一位分析师观察到，用于评估美国机构购买压力的Coinbase Prem正在下降。这表明机构投资者越来越谨慎。

Short-Term Holder Distress

短期持有人的困扰

Separate analysis reveals that short-term holders or addresses that purchased Bitcoin within the last 150 days, are selling after a dip to $74,500. The refreshing rebound from 2021 highs is offering them an opportunity to lock in gains and wait for clearer market confirmation.

单独的分析表明，在过去150天内购买比特币的短期持有人或地址在下跌至74,500美元后销售。来自2021年高点的令人耳目一新的反弹为他们提供了锁定收益并等待更清晰的市场确认的机会。

Short-term holders who have been at a loss for the past three months are now actively selling coins, which has halted the growth.

在过去三个月中一直亏损的短期持有人现在积极出售硬币，这已经停止了增长。

Over the past three days, demand on exchanges has completely absorbed this sell-off.

在过去的三天中，交流需求完全吸收了这种抛售。

Keep watching the $96K mark -this is the average entry price for short-term holders.

继续观看$ 96K的大关 - 这是短期持有人的平均入场价。

In the short term, the analyst added that the $96,000 level, the average cost basis for short-term holders, is a local resistance level. It will serve as a short-term barrier that could slow aggressive buyers.

在短期内，分析师补充说，$ 96,000的水平是短期持有人的平均成本基础，是当地的阻力水平。它将成为一个短期障碍，可以放缓积极进取的买家。

Once breached, Bitcoin could surge and make a clean break above $100,000. Trends from Binance support this bullish outlook. HODLers are holding onto their BTC rather than selling.

一旦违反，比特币可能会激增，并在100,000美元以上进行干净的休息。 Binance的趋势支持这种看涨的前景。霍德勒人坚持自己的BTC，而不是出售。

(Source)

（来源）

According to on-chain data, the number of BTC addresses depositing to Binance and other exchanges has been declining, reaching levels last seen in December 2016.

根据链上的数据，BTC地址的数量已在二进制和其他交易所存入的数量正在下降，2016年12月上次出现的水平达到了水平。