Bitcoin surges past $90K, targeting $100K, but overleverage and low spot volume signal risks. Will BTCUSDT bulls break resistance?

With Bitcoin trading firmly above $90,000, bullish sentiment is once again dominating the crypto market discourse. Not only are traders expecting BTC/USDT to absorb any attempts to break below $90,000, but they also anticipate the coin will easily soar above $100,000, a key psychological level.

Bitcoin's price surged past the $90,000 mark, setting sights on the key psychological level of $100,000. However, despite bullish sentiment, several indicators point to risks that could stall the BTC/USDT recovery.

Bitcoin (BTC) traders are largely expecting any attempts to break below $90,000 to be absorbed by buyers, setting the stage for a continuation towards.

This confidence stems from supportive macroeconomic tailwinds, increasing institutional demand, evident in minimal spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and a resilient holder base.

However, despite widespread optimism, several key indicators are flashing caution.

One analyst on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, noted that while BTC/USDT price action may appear healthy, underlying metrics suggest growing instability at current levels.

Yesterday marked the highest volume of leveraged positions in Bitcoin's history in a single day, at $8.41B USD.

Today, $2.4B USD were closed—likely due to Market Makers closing long positions, bear stop triggers, and liquidations.

This indicates aggressive long positions, and perhaps some market makers are exiting at these levels.

According to the analyst, ignoring these signals could spell disaster for overleveraged traders on major crypto exchanges, particularly Binance, OKX, and Bybit.

The analyst added that on April 23, the Bitcoin market recorded its highest-ever volume of leveraged positions.

Over $8.4 billion in open interest was registered in a single day, a milestone signaling both aggression and confidence from speculative long traders.

However, it took just 24 hours of choppy price action on April 24 for the market and exchanges to forcefully liquidate $2.4 billion in leveraged positions. This triggered speculation about potential market maker exits, stop-loss hunts, and long liquidations.

The situation is exacerbated because spot volume is notably low despite skyrocketing leveraged bets. This imbalance shows that the Bitcoin uptrend is not as robust as many people think. For this reason, the market is fragile and susceptible to huge price swings if market makers unwind their positions.

This divergence between an overextended futures market and a thin spot market is a classic risk signal that could dash bulls’ hopes and drive prices back below $90,000. In turn, this may force capital away from some of the hottest presales in 2025.

Even more concerning, another analyst observed that the Coinbase Premium, used to gauge institutional buying pressure in the United States, is declining. This suggests that institutional investors are growing cautious.

Short-Term Holder Distress

Separate analysis reveals that short-term holders or addresses that purchased Bitcoin within the last 150 days, are selling after a dip to $74,500. The refreshing rebound from 2021 highs is offering them an opportunity to lock in gains and wait for clearer market confirmation.

Short-term holders who have been at a loss for the past three months are now actively selling coins, which has halted the growth.

Over the past three days, demand on exchanges has completely absorbed this sell-off.

Keep watching the $96K mark -this is the average entry price for short-term holders.

In the short term, the analyst added that the $96,000 level, the average cost basis for short-term holders, is a local resistance level. It will serve as a short-term barrier that could slow aggressive buyers.

Once breached, Bitcoin could surge and make a clean break above $100,000. Trends from Binance support this bullish outlook. HODLers are holding onto their BTC rather than selling.

(Source)

According to on-chain data, the number of BTC addresses depositing to Binance and other exchanges has been declining, reaching levels last seen in December 2016.